King James Gospel
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Why being a huge underdog is a huge advantage for LeBron James and these Cleveland Cavaliers

By Duane Rohrbacher

CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 25: Cleveland Cavaliers LeBron James (23) reacts after hitting a three-point shot late in the game over the Celtics Jayson Tatum (not pictured) to give Cleveland a 107-96 lead, on their way to a 109-99 victory. The Boston Celtics visited the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game Six of their NBA Eastern Conference Finals playoff series at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH on May 25, 2018. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 25: Cleveland Cavaliers LeBron James (23) reacts after hitting a three-point shot late in the game over the Celtics Jayson Tatum (not pictured) to give Cleveland a 107-96 lead, on their way to a 109-99 victory. The Boston Celtics visited the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game Six of their NBA Eastern Conference Finals playoff series at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH on May 25, 2018. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) /
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CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 25: Cleveland Cavaliers LeBron James (23) reacts after hitting a three-point shot late in the game over the Celtics Jayson Tatum (not pictured) to give Cleveland a 107-96 lead, on their way to a 109-99 victory. The Boston Celtics visited the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game Six of their NBA Eastern Conference Finals playoff series at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH on May 25, 2018. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 25: Cleveland Cavaliers LeBron James (23) reacts after hitting a three-point shot late in the game over the Celtics Jayson Tatum (not pictured) to give Cleveland a 107-96 lead, on their way to a 109-99 victory. The Boston Celtics visited the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game Six of their NBA Eastern Conference Finals playoff series at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH on May 25, 2018. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) /

We may think of the 2016 NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers as the biggest underdog in recent memory. But we would be wrong.

It’s easy to forget that in the 2015-2016 season, the Cleveland Cavaliers — even against a historically great Golden State Warriors team — were historically great in their own right. In 2018, the Cavaliers are the biggest NBA Finals underdog since 2001. These are all good things. Read on to learn why.

When a team is an underdog, no one thinks twice. Sometimes one team has had more rest, has fewer injuries, or is simply a better team. When a team is a big underdog, things get a little interesting. Outside of the playoffs, big underdogs rarely win games.

ESPN even created a monthly “schedule alert” article to prove this point. But in the Championship of any sport that plays more than one game, a massively huge underdog doesn’t have as big of a disadvantage as one might think.

Betting

Now that gambling on professional sports is legal in the United States, it might make sense to talk about it a little more. Vegas makes a lot of money for a reason, and trusting the betting lines is one way to think about underdogs in sports.

Right now, depending on the source, the Cleveland Cavaliers are about a 10/1 to win the NBA Championship, meaning that they have a 10% chance of winning. If you were to bet $100, you would win $1000 and come out with $1100 if you bet on the Cavs to win before Game 1 starts.

Lines change dramatically as the series goes on, depending on a variety of factors, including injuries, storylines, recent performance, and rumors. According to OddsShark, underdog NBA teams win about 30% of the time, and big underdogs (3/1 odds or worse) win about 16% of the time.

This makes sense, as why would Vegas make lines of 10/1 if they thought that the Cavs had greater than a 10% chance of winning?

Well, the betting itself dictates the lines a bit. If bettors start placing down huge amounts of money on the Cavs, Vegas will move the lines up (meaning the Cavs could become 9/1 underdogs, for example),  so that they don’t lose their shirt if an upset occurs.

Needless to say, the Cavs at 10/1 make their odds look much worse than the 2016 Cavs, which were closer to a 2/1 dog, even though the Warriors were 73-9.