Why Larry Nance Jr. should start over Tristan Thompson

Larry Nance Jr. should start over Tristan Thompson for the Cleveland Cavaliers to be at their best.

Larry Nance Jr. is better than Tristan Thompson. It’s this fact that should lead the Cleveland Cavaliers to start Nance Jr. over Thompson once Nance Jr. is familiarized with the team’s playbook.

Nonetheless, Nance Jr., like Thompson, is a player with a high basketball IQ. Because of Nance’s smarts on the court — no doubt enhanced from the lessons imparted from his father (a three-time All-Star and who made the All-Defensive team three times) — he’s able to start anytime and get a quick grasp of what to do.

Nance’s ability to fit in quickly is probably best illustrated in his offensive rating (130; second-highest on Cavs), defensive rating (110; tied for third-lowest on Cavs), box plus/minus (4.3; second-highest on Cavs) and win shares per 48 minutes (.219; second-highest on Cavs).

Defensively, the Cavaliers do a few different things but the common theme from anything they do, whether it’s blitzing the pick-and-roll, hedging the pick-and-roll or icing the pick-and-roll, is a need for improved agility, tenacity and rim-protection from their centers. That’s why Kevin Love, far from the most fleet-footed or explosive athlete, was replaced at center by Thompson.

However, if the goal is to put the most able defender as the starting center, Thompson should be replaced by Nance Jr. sooner rather than later.

Thompson is allowing 1.08 points per possession when defending bigs in the pick-and-roll, as they shoot an effective field goal percent of 58.7. He’s in the 34th percentile for defending pick-and-roll rollers as a result.

Compare that to Nance Jr., allowing just 0.85 points per possession defending pick-and-roll big men, as they shoot an effective field goal percentage of 47.8. He’s in the 70th percentile for defending pick-and-roll rollers as a result.

Thompson is allowing 1.35 points per possession in isolation as players shoot an effective field goal percent of 70.5. That ranks in the 2nd percentile of isolation defenders. For comparison, Nance Jr. is allowing 1.05 points per possession in isolation as players shoot an effective field goal percent of 52.9. That ranks in the 23rd percentile.

In this case, neither is particularly great but one is still clearly better.

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Thompson is known for his hustle, screen assists, offensive rebounding and his defensive versatility. He certainly holds an advantage in screen assists (3.4 per game compared to 2.2 per game for Nance Jr.) and contested shots (9.3 per game compared to 6.5 per game for Nance Jr.). Yet, Nance Jr. is a quicker and more explosive version of Thompson; while being a hustle player, solid screener and glass-cleaner, he’s a more explosive finisher (which results in better gravity) and makes more of a defensive impact.

These are results bourne out in their field goal percent around the rim (74.3 percent for Thompson, 75.8 percent for Nance Jr.), defensive field goal percent (50.9 percent for Thompson compared to 47.5 percent for Nance Jr.) and pass deflections (0.5 per game for Thompson compared to 2.2 per game for Nance Jr.). Neither are tremendous shot-blockers, with Thompson averaging 0.4 blocks per game and Nance Jr. averaging 0.5 blocks per game this season, however Nance has the better tools needed to make a potential impact.

There’s an unquantifiable benefit to on-court chemistry. That’s a fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers know all too well after adding two former Boston Celtics in Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder whose performance in the 2016-2017 and skillsets should have made them better fits than they were.

As a result, shaking up what seems to be a fitting starting lineup after the Cavs trade deadline moves would be counterintuitive. Especially considering the difficulty the Cavaliers have had integrating players into the rotation all season.

However, try as they might to get some consistency, they’ll still be integrating new pieces until the end of the season with Love sidelined for another month (the Cavs’ season finale takes place on April 11th).

The Cavaliers may still opt to add a more burly big man before the postseason to deal with more traditional big men like Jonas Valanciunas of the Toronto Raptors. Nance Jr. and Thompson allow 0.94 points and 0.95 points per possession on post-ups, respectively. Nance Jr. ranks in the 32nd percentile, allowing 57.7 percent shooting on post-ups. Thompson ranks in the 31st percentile, allowing 53.1 percent shooting on post-ups.

However, adding Nance Jr. to the starting lineup in place of Thompson should result in improvements on both sides of the ball.

*Unless otherwise referenced, stats gathered from www.basketball-reference.com