All eyes are on the defensive end as the Cleveland ship seems to go down in flames, but there is an interesting trend that should give the Cavaliers hope.
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ superstar Lebron James is in one heck of a slump. Over the past 12 games, he is averaging just 22.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game with .50/.20/.66 splits.
He’s hardly been the Lebron we know, and it goes beyond the stats. He looks visibly frustrated at times and generally lacks the brash confidence we’re used to seeing from him.
The unusual part is the sheer length of this slump. We’ve seen Lebron struggle for short stretches before, but this has lasted almost a month. I had a feeling something deeper was going on, so I started to dig into the advanced metrics.
I started by trying to characterize Lebron at his best. He had remarkable success in Cleveland almost ten years ago with the likes of Daniel “Boobie” Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak. He won his first championship by assisting eight three-pointers during a blowout of the Thunder.
Even last year, in the best game I saw Lebron play — a 41-13-12 demolishing of the Indiana Pacers — the lineup that led to Cleveland’s incredible comeback? James alongside Deron Williams, Iman Shumpert and two seemingly forgotten Cavaliers: Channing Frye and Kyle Korver.
Lebron James is — in my opinion — the greatest basketball player of all time. But even he needs to be put in a position to succeed, and his most successful moments come when surrounded by elite shooting.
The advanced metrics reflect this simple truth. This season, among all of the Cavaliers’ two-man lineups to play at least 100 minutes together, the six highest performing lineups include either Channing Frye or Kyle Korver, based on net rating.
That’s right, the Cavaliers are at their best when Korver and Frye are on the court. In fact, in each of those six lineups, the Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by at least 9.5 points per 100 possessions. That would be good enough for the second-best net rating in the league, (the Warriors are at 10.3 for the season).
But for whatever reason, Ty Lue has decided to use Korver and Frye less and less as the season has progressed. Earlier this year, when the Cavaliers won 18 out of 19 games, Korver and Frye played in every game and averaged just under 40 minutes per game combined.
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In the 14 games since, Korver and Frye have combined to play just 24.8 minutes per game, and Frye failed to see the court in six of those games. The Cavaliers’ record? 4-10.
Now, this is where Cavaliers fans and coaches alike fall into a familiar trap.
Our defense is terrible! We have to play our best defensive personnel!
I could go the easy route and just say, “we’ve tried that, and we have the second-worst defense in the league. It isn’t working.” But its more complicated than that.
There is a myth that Cleveland has defensively challenged personnel. There is some truth to that, especially with the likes of Isaiah Thomas, but the reality is that Cleveland has great athletes on the roster.
Jeff Green, Jae Crowder, Lebron James, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and Dwyane Wade are all more than capable of being plus defenders. That represents more than half of the rotation.
To blame the personnel is to irrationally deflect from the issues with the Cavaliers’ team defense. There is no communication, no rotation and certainly no effort. Let us not forget that the Cavaliers were a top-ten defense back in 2016 with many of the same rotation players.
Cleveland is more than capable of defending with the players they have currently on the roster. They just have to actually do it.
So where do Korver and Frye come into this equation?
The Cavaliers defend well when their leader is engaged. Part of the reason for the Cavaliers’ recent struggles is that their leader is slumping. The first key to getting the Cavaliers on the right track is to get Lebron James back to playing MVP-level basketball.
Lost in all of this talk about Cleveland’s defense is that they have the 23rd ranked offense in the month of January. Lebron’s slump has hurt the Cavaliers’ offense, which has, in turn, caused their defense to fall off a cliff.
I believe Lebron’s slump is a direct result of the Cavaliers going away from what has made them elite in the past. Surround him with shooters who play hard, and he will play with an infectious energy that brings their defense to life.
In lineups that include Lebron James, Kyle Korver and Channing Frye all on the court simultaneously, the Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, that lineup is holding opponents to just 103.3 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as the seventh-best defense in the NBA right now.
When the Cavaliers’ offense is humming, and Lebron is playing with peak confidence, the Cavaliers give the necessary effort and focus to succeed on defense.
The problem is those three have only played together in 22 of the Cavaliers 45 games. Even in the 2017 finals, Korver played fewer than 20 minutes per game and Frye played 11 minutes total.
Stop telling me that the Cavaliers need another wing or a better rim protector. If they find one for a good deal before the trade deadline, fine. But the Cavaliers defensive problems can be fixed by simply giving Lebron what he needs: shooting.
The rest will take care of itself naturally on the strength of Lebron’s greatness.
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Now it’s up to Ty Lue to figure it out.