How quickly can Cavs integrate Isaiah Thomas?

Isaiah Thomas is set to make his Cleveland Cavaliers debut any day now.

With Isaiah Thomas’ return imminent, the question of how quickly the Cleveland Cavaliers can integrate him – especially when their team has won 18 of their last 19 games – is as important as any.

Thomas has been out for the entire season as he decided to rehab a torn labrum in his hip without surgery. When the Cavs made the blockbuster trade that sent All-Star Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics in exchange for Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic and the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round draft pick in 2018, this was already known. However, Irving’s desire to be traded, the defensive versatility of Crowder and the possibilities provided by having a valuable asset like a potential top-five pick in next year’s draft outweighed the concern over Thomas’ future health.

The best the Cavs could hope for was for the team to be successful without an All-Star point guard for several months. What followed is what many saw as a worrying 5-7 start, in which the Cleveland Cavaliers started Derrick Rose at point guard and, at one point, Dwyane Wade at shooting guard. The results being an out-of-whack offense and defense, as the team looked like a squad full of players that lacked chemistry, certainty about their roles and head coach Tyronn Lue had to figure out how to utilize personnel that excelled from inside of the three-point arc.

After injuries to Rose and Iman Shumpert, Jose Calderon earned the starting nod at point guard despite a disastrous debut against the Orlando Magic earlier in the season. Since then, the offense has flourished thanks to his ball-movement, ball control, basketball IQ and three-point shooting.

In the 15 games that Calderon has started since his debut against the Magic (a game that the Cavs lost 114-93), the Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-1. Calderon has averaged 6.1 points, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals and just 0.8 turnovers per game during this run. You want more? Calderon is shooting a blistering 54.1 percent from the field and 51.4 percent from three-point range in the last 15 games. His ability to be a playmaker on both ends has been a tremendous benefit to the Cleveland Cavaliers and when their stable of guards is completely healthy, Lue would be wise to keep Calderon in the rotation.

With rookie forward Cedi Osman also playing well during this stretch, even guarding opposing ball-handlers in the second unit, Lue has uncomfortable decisions to make regarding how much he should play Rose and Shumpert when they return.

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One thing is for certain though, when Thomas returns he’ll be the starting point guard.

The two-time All-Star is quick, nifty and built well physically, traits that help him excel as a slasher despite his 5-foot-9 height.

He’s also what you might call a pure scorer, showing a natural ability to score from all three levels; a career 36.7 percent shooter from deep (40.7 percent on corner threes), Thomas has also made 42.5 percent of his midrange shots (shots 10-16 feet away from the rim) and 61.3 percent of his shots around the rim (shots 0-3 feet away from the rim). Thomas has even been solid from No Man’s Land, making 40.5 percent of his long-twos (shots 16-24 feet away from the rim).

That’s what makes Thomas such an offensive talent and allowed him to average 28.9 points per game last season (shooting 46.3 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from three-point range and 90.9 percent from the free-throw line) while being the primary scoring option for the Boston Celtics. To compare, Irving averaged 25.2 points per game while shooting 47.3 percent from the field, 40.1 percent from three-point range and 90.5 percent from the free-throw line.

Thomas only averaged 1.4 more field goal attempts than Irving but 3.5 more free-throw attempts per game.

That’s likely an indication of Thomas’ inclination to drive all the way to the rim as 34.0 percent of his shots came from 0-3 feet away from the rim last season compared to 23.9 percent of his shots coming from 3-16 feet away from the rim (the “in-between” game). Last season, 26.4 percent of Irving’s shots came from 0-3 feet away from the rim and 28.0 percent of his shots came from 3-16 feet away from the rim.

The Cleveland Cavaliers already are already 8th in the NBA with 22.5 free-throw attempts per game and 5th with 18.2 free-throw conversions per game. Given that Calderon has only averaged 0.5 free-throw attempts per game in the last 15 games, Thomas’ ability to get to the line 8.5 times per game last season bodes well for their ability to test the interior of defenses.

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That ability allows them to force defenders to play to extreme. Should the Cavs get the opposing team in foul trouble, their defenders could be forced to be more passive with their interior defense. Conversely, because the Cavs are so dangerous attacking the paint, the defense could constantly collapse and open up space for three-point shooters. Dominating the interior was key to Lue’s offensive philosophy and the offense could be as dominant as ever with Thomas’ inclination to attack the paint.

Look for Thomas, who took more threes than Irving last season (33.6 percent of Thomas’ shots last season compared to 31.1 percent of Irving’s) to take less long-twos (tough shots) than Irving. 14.4 percent of the shots Irving took last season came from 16-24 feet away from the rim while just 8.4 percent of the shots Thomas came from the range.

Thomas’ ability to take good shots matters as well because, although Irving’s proficiency from the midrange (44.0 percent for his career) and long-twos (44.4 percent for his career) helps make him an electric player, he was often making tough shots. The Cleveland Cavaliers will simply be more effective without having a starting point guard attempting so many tough shots.

Here’s what Thomas has to say about what he could bring to the offense (quotes transcribed by cleveland.com‘s Joe Vardon):

"“It’s been frustrating because I know where I can help at,” Thomas said. “Not just scoring and making plays, but, being that leader, being that voice out there and holding everybody accountable. Not saying that guys aren’t doing that, but I know where I can help at, in so many ways other than just scoring the basketball. And I think I could really put pressure on the defense.“We don’t have nobody really who’s been able to get in the paint and make a play and keep the defense on their heels and get to the foul line and things like that, so I think there’s so many areas that I can help in and, I’m just, I’m impatient but I’ve got to be patient,” Thomas continued. “I hope I’ll be out there real soon.”"

The ball-movement and ball-control of Calderon having been noted, Thomas averaged 5.9 assists per game to just 2.8 turnovers last season.

For comparison, over the course of the last 15 games, Calderon has been averaging 4.3 assists and 1.3 turnovers per 36 minutes (3.3 assists-to-turnovers). Thomas averaged 6.3 assists and 2.9 turnovers per 36 minutes last season (2.2 assists-to-turnovers). Irving averaged 5.5 assists and 2.6 turnovers per 36 minutes last season (2.1 assists-to-turnovers).

While neither Thomas or Irving appears to be quite as careful with the ball as Calderon, last season they had a usage rate of 34.0 percent and 31.2 percent respectively. Calderon has had a usage rate of 10.8 percent over the last 15 games. With all due respect to both Calderon and Irving, Thomas may be the best – and most careful – playmaker of the three when factoring in his usage rate, decision-making and scoring ability.

Just looking at the numbers, Lue’s decision to practice more when Thomas returns to health, the cerebral LeBron James’ candid fixation on figuring out how best to play with Thomas and Thomas’ considering himself to be a “student of the game“, there shouldn’t be much issue with integrating Thomas into the offense when he returns.

You’re talking about potentially adding 24.7 points per game while keeping the offense in a good flow so long as the team continues to feed Kevin Love, a premier inside-outside threat this season.

The players currently in the rotation most impacted by Thomas’ return will likely be Calderon (averaging 22.0 minutes per game in his last 15 games) and Osman (12.0 minutes per game in his last 10 games). Thomas could take a nibble out of James and Jae Crowder’s minutes as well, for various reason. His scoring ability should afford James a bit more rest than he’s been able to get so far through the season; James is averaging 37.4 minutes per game this season, his second-highest average in the last four seasons.

In the case of Crowder, it’s simply because the Villa Rica, Georgia product is having an up-and-down start to his Cavs career. He’s only making 32.2 percent of his three-point attempts this season and with Thomas healthy, one of the best lineups the Cavs could use would be Thomas at point guard with Dwyane Wade and J.R. Smith (or Kyle Korver) on the wings while James plays the power forward and Love plays center. The playmaking and shooting ability (Wade, Smith, Korver, Love and James are all shooting above 35.0 percent from three this season) across these four positions, it almost unfair from an offensive standpoint.

The defense, however, is a question. In any lineup really. It’s not even about integrating him on that end given that the only above-average defender the Cavs have started at point guard this season is Shumpert.

There are questions about if Thomas will be effective blitzing the pick-and-roll because of his height. If they don’t blitz the ball-handler, though Thomas has the lateral quickness to stick with his man, his stature could hinder him from staying with the ball-handler after a screen. As a result, there could be an open shot for his man or he could get switched onto a bigger man. It’s already one thing for him to guarding players six inches taller than him but asking him to be effective if getting posted up by a player that could tower a foot over him?

The complications that arise from Thomas’ height could lead to the Cleveland Cavaliers starting Tristan Thompson at center thanks to his lateral ability and shot-blocking instincts. Thompson’s ability to defend on the perimeter and the interior could trump the benefit of having Love draw big men out onto the perimeter with the threat of his three-point shot.

More than likely Lue will see how the Cavs hold up defensively with Thomas as a starter before making any lineup change, but it’s something to watch for. Thomas’ activity on the defensive end, especially in blitzing the pick-and-roll and getting over screens, could help him compensate for less than ideal physical tools. It’s a lot to ask of a player just returning from an injury but it’s possible for him to put in that level of effort once he gets into game condition.

*All stats gathered from www.basketball-reference.com