2017-2018 player preview: J.R. Smith
What should the Cleveland Cavaliers expect from J.R. Smith next season?
Last season, Cleveland Cavaliers shooting guard J.R. Smith had one of the most underwhelming seasons of his career.
After a contract stalemate that resulted in Smith missing the first three weeks of training camp, the Cavs’ fan favorite agreed to re-sign with the Cavs for four years and $57 million. However, Smith would soon find himself battling injuries on the court and find his newborn daughter battling for her life off-the-court after being born prematurely.
These issues not only robbed Smith of his rhythm but served as distractions for a player who, outside of his time in Cleveland, wasn’t known for his focus. There isn’t a person in the world who would say that basketball should have been prioritized over Smith’s family but it’s simply a fact of the matter; Smith had a tough year and it seemed to effect his play on-the-court.
Quote transcribed by Basketball Insiders’ Spencer Davies:
"“It was tough,” Smith said. “Because when you’re not there from day one of training camp to the first game—when I came in we played one preseason game at Ohio State then we got right to the season.“It was extremely tough. My timing and stuff was off.”"
In what was his 13th season, Smith shot a career-low 34.6 percent from the field and 32.9 percent on two-point attempts. Smith only made 35.1 percent of his three-point attempts (6.6 attempts per game) after making 40.0 percent of his three-point attempts in the previous season (6.6 attempts per game) and holding a shooting average of 37.4 percent (5.4 attempts per game) for his career. He did make 45.5 percent of his threes from the corner and 35.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes but he certainly wasn’t as effective a three-point threat as normal.
Sure, he shot 36.2 percent from three before the All-Star break but a closer look shows that in the months preceding the All-Star break, Smith only shot well during the month of December (45.0 percent from three-point range).
Even looking at his advanced stats, Smith’s production slipped quite a bit. After earning an offensive rating of 110 in 2015-2016, Smith’s offensive rating dropped by nine points (101) in 2016-2017. His defensive rating also suffered, going from 106 (2015-2016) to 112. He went from contributing 5.5 wins shares in 2015-2016 (3.0 offensive win shares) to contributing just 0.8 win shares last season (0.1 offensive win shares). His box plus/minus went from 1.3 (1.8 offensive box plus/minus) to -1.3 (-0.5 offensive box plus/minus). His value over replacement player (VORP) went from 2.0 to 0.2.
You don’t have to be an advanced stats truther to see that Smith’s play wasn’t one of the bright spots of the Cavs’ regular season last year. He seemed to be pressing a lot of the time, trying to make a splash play and taking ill-advised shots when it was clear he had never established a shooting rhythm. His defensive focus was lacking, coming to a head when he left the court during a play to shake Jason Terry’s hand, a member of the opposing team.
It wasn’t until the playoffs that Smith returned to form and he picked a great time to do it. He shot 50.0 percent from three-point range (4.4 attempts per game), 50.5 percent from the field and 52.9 percent from inside the arc. He made 46.7 percent of his corner threes and 56.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes. He was on fire.
His offensive rating of 127 was higher than the previous post season’s (125) and though he had an offensive rating of 115, he was consistently matched up against some of the best wings in the league – from Paul George to DeMar Derozan to Klay Thompson. As a result, his defensive win shares (0.3) was tied for the fourth-highest on the team and his defensive box plus/minus (0.9) was the fifth-highest on the team. Even his VORP (0.6) was fourth-highest on the team (higher than Kyrie Irving’s, in fact, who had an underwhelming postseason for the most part).
Next season, Smith will look to capitalize on the way he performed in the playoffs and return to form. With Irving traded and Derrick Rose replacing him in the starting lineup until Isaiah Thomas returns from injury, Smith will have the opportunity to shoot even more than he has in the past. However, with great power comes great responsibility.
Irving made 40.1 percent of his threes last season (6.1 attempts per game) and 48.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes. Smith will need to sustain his efficiency from the 2017 playoffs to keep the Cavs’ offense as effective as it was last season. In the starting lineup, Smith’s job is much easier if Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue starts Kevin Love at center and promotes a player like Jae Crowder to the starting lineup, as there will be more three-point threats for the defense to key-in on and more space for defenders to cover.
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Still, there’s a chance Smith will come off the bench and Dwyane Wade will start. If that’s the case, whenever Smith is in, he and Kyle Korver will have to be efficient snipers from beyond the arc.
Defensively, as Smith pointed out on Media Day, Rose isn’t a player that the offense can just “go at” like they did with Irving. In addition, with Crowder’s arrival, the Cavs can put Smith on less talented wings than he ordinarily covers more often than they could in previous seasons. As a result, there’s less defensive pressure on Smith; he may still guard all three perimeter positions but he’ll be able to focus on guarding his position (unless the Cavs are facing a particularly athletic point guard) and won’t have to guard the best players every time down.
It may seem simplistic but Smith’s job this season will be to knock down open threes and play solid defense on his man. Although Smith has made strides as a facilitator even the past season’s, the additions of Rose and Wade remove the need for Smith to be anything but his natural self: a shameless gunner.
Along with Rose, Thomas, Wade, Korver, Crowder, Love, LeBron James and Tristan Thompson, Smith is one of the Cavs’ core players and can be expected to be in their playoff rotation. So long as he stays focused and stays healthy, he should be fine.
Quote transcribed by Basketball Insiders’ Spencer Davies:
"“He looks good,” [Tristan] Thompson said. “He’s defending at a high level, making threes like he always does."
This season, Smith will also look to be more of a vocal leader. His time in Cleveland has changed him and made him a team-first player, as evidenced by his tiff with Tracy McGrady, his thoughts on coming to Cleveland with an ego and his statements regarding Irving on Media Day.
Smith wants the Cavs to do their jobs without an ego and he wants them to want to be in Cleveland. He wants his teammates to be there with the goal of competing for championships (a team victory), rather than trying to make the Hall of Fame (an individual accolade). His vibrant personality already made him a solid locker room presence. Now his maturity will enhance his importance to the team as well.
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