Playing Kobe Altman for a Day: How to re-start the Cleveland Cavaliers

I’ve never been a GM, nor would I ever become one. But, for today, I am going to do my best Kobe Altman impression. It’s time for the Cleveland Cavaliers to think long and hard about starting over. I offer a statistically driven path forward.

You’ve read the news, no need to rehash it here. The purpose of this article is to propose some mega-trades (mostly 3- and 4-teamers) that put the Cleveland Cavaliers from the oldest team in the league with the most turmoil, to the most promising team in the league without the drama. This will be an exercise in funny statistics and disaster scenarios, so bear with me.

Methodology

To get things started, I would like to discuss my not-so-sophisticated method. For example, a player on a rookie contract is incredibly more valuable than a 32-year old on a max deal. Draft picks are like candy, and teams throw them around. Advanced statistics only tell you so much.

Ok, with that in mind, here’s how I decided who to trade and for whom. First, I used three advanced statistics, Win Shares, Player Efficiency Rating, and Box Plus/Minus. Then, I took into account the player’s age, contract length, and current salary. Third, I took players off the table that there is zero percent chance that they would be traded (Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, for example). Lastly, I used the ol’ NBA rules and took anyone off the table who has been recently traded or resigned. Using this method, I came up with the following equation to rate someone’s Kobe Value: (Win Shares + PER + BP/M)) / (Current Salary * (Age + (1 / years left on contract))).

Here’s the rationale. The advanced metrics alone don’t tell us a ton, but when you add them together and value them equally, it provides a “big picture” of a player’s skill. I didn’t take usage into account because that clearly doesn’t matter in today’s NBA (e.g., Chris Paul with James Harden or Steph Curry with Kevin Durant). I used age, salary, and contract length together because a 35-year old on a one-year contract is much less valuable than a 23-year old on a four-year deal, regardless of the salary.