Will the Golden State Warriors blow a 3-1 lead again?

Will the Golden State Warriors blow another 3-1 lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are down 3-1 in the 2017 NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors and for some reason, that’s an extremely comforting sentence.

After their historic comeback in the 2016 NBA Finals, becoming the first Finals team to come back from down 3-1 to win the series, the Cleveland Cavaliers are confident in their ability to do it again.

While Smith acknowledges the personnel changes each team has made in the Finals make this year different than last year, what Smith hasn’t acknowledged is that their better equipped for a 3-1 comeback this year, as opposed to when it happened last year.

Not only do the Cavs have the experience of completing the task and have genuine confidence they can do it again, they have four things the Warriors don’t have: (1) an overabundance of three-point threats on the roster; (2) two elite scorers that attack the rim incessantly; (3) a player who is a fine mix of Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson and Shaquille O’Neal; (4) a player who specializes in dominating the offensive boards and getting his team second-chance points.

Those four factors, in addition to the Cleveland Cavaliers playing tough and physical defense on the Warriors’ shooters and wearing them down physically, led to the Cleveland Cavaliers not just defeating Golden State in Game 3 – they dominated the Warriors throughout the game.

Say that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving don’t combine for 71 points in any of the next three games; that the Cleveland Cavaliers don’t make an NBA-record 24 threes on their way to breaking NBA Finals records for points in a quarter and half; that Tristan Thompson doesn’t have four offensive rebounds and five assists; or that Kevin Love doesn’t go 6-8 from three-point range.

Without those otherworldly performances, the Cavs would have still been able to beat the Warriors with timely shots, incredible defensive effort, James’ ability to score in the paint at will and Irving’s ability not to just break opponents down off-the-dribble no matter who they are but to make shots around the rim with either hand and from any angle.

One of the biggest differences in Game 4 was how, even while starring as a rogue gunner, Irving played under control and attacked at the right times. His killer instinct, ball-handling, shooting touch and finishing ability is the perfect complement to the cerebral, calculated, surgical play of James.

In Game 4, only the timely shots and consistent defensive effort were new to the Cleveland Cavaliers in this Finals series. However, those have been two of the Cavs’ keys to victory throughout the first 13 games of their playoff run.

Now, with their backs against the wall, the Cleveland Cavaliers can’t slip up defensively and must make shots. If that doesn’t get them to play hard on the defensive end for 48 minutes and hit the shots they’ve been hitting their whole season, or career, nothing will.

In Game 4, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Big Three combined to go 36-73 from the field (49.3 percent) and 16-28 from three-point range (57.1 percent), the rest of the rotation (Thompson, Smith, Kyle Korver, Richard Jefferson, Iman Shumpert and Deron Williams) went 12-22 from the field (54.5 percent) and 8-15 from three-point range (53.3 percent).

Conversely, the Cleveland Cavaliers did a great job in preventing Stephen Curry get comfortable. Curry, who has the ability to put nails in the coffin with his shooting ability, only scored 14 points after going 4-13 from the field and 2-9 from three-point range. While Kevin Durant did finish with 35 points, 15 of those came at the free-throw line. Durant was also 2-9 from three-point range.

As averages edge towards the mean, Curry and Durant are bound to have more efficient shooting nights from three-point range, just as Love and Irving did. However, the Cavs ability to wear on Curry and Durant physically, who went 0-4 from three-point range in the fourth quarter, won’t change. Because shooters are affected by physical defense and players with slight frames’ shot-making is often affected by fatigue, playing them physically and letting the game get chippy only works in the Cavs favor.

That’s also true because with the volatile Draymond Green on the court, whose on-court temper tantrums after foul calls could lead to easy points for the Cavs (or an ejection for Green) with a technical or flagrant foul, the Warriors could unravel in a physical game. While the Cavs, and especially James, are used to getting fouled and the call not going their way, the Warriors players tend to be truly perturbed by the refereeing.

The foul bonus was a major weapon on Friday, as the Cleveland Cavaliers were able to get easy points by sending Irving, James and even Love to the rim like heat-seeking missiles.

The Cavs shot 31 free-throws, their highest total in the series, and if they didn’t miss eight free-throws in the first quarter, the final deficit could have hovered around 30 points at the end of Game 4.

Another big change for the Cavs on Friday night was the play of Thompson, who had struggled to crash the glass and stay on the floor for the first three games of the series. Thompson’s ability to rebound gives the Cavs what are deadly second-chance attempts when you’re facing a team with the amount of talent and three-point shooting that the Cleveland Cavaliers possess.

Keeping the Warriors from going down the court and scoring and keeping the Cavs in position to score on the possession is four to six-point swing every offensive rebound he gets. That’s why the four he got in Game 4 were so crucial and averaging 2.0 offensive rebounds per game prior to Game 4 wasn’t going to cut it, especially if he wasn’t going to contribute to the Cavs shooting and floor-spacing.

The Cavs still can’t rest James though as he went out for what seemed like a single minute at one point and the Cavs lead went from 16 to 11 in the blink of an eye, even with Irving on the court. The Cavs lack discipline without James but what they miss more than anything is what he’s known for above all else, his brain. James coordinates both the offense and defense while he’s on the court in ways no other player on the court can.

When James gets on the court he’s making pre-snap reads, calling hot routes and audibles to his teammates to exploit matchups depending on what he sees from the defense.

He’s the best player in the world at that and his ability to coordinate on both ends is what gives the Cavs the best chance to win. Despite the issue of getting James rest, with his basketball IQ, passing ability, scoring ability and unique athleticism and to win the next three games, the Cavs need to utilize the best player in the world as much as possible.

Getting leads, like in Game 4, gives James an opportunity to get a breather. Using timeouts judiciously does as well.

Unfortunately, the Cavs have struggled magnificently without James on the court but it’s necessary to get James some rest. Had James had more left in the tank in Game 3, the Cavs could be going back to the Bay tied 2-2.

Now, they’ll now be going back to The Oracle down 3-1 just like last year. With the Cavs finally putting it all together, will history repeat itself?

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Will the Cleveland Cavaliers come back from a 3-1 NBA Finals deficit against the Golden State Warriors again? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section or Twitter @KJG_NBA.