Comparing Cleveland Cavaliers players using Advanced Statistics
Have the Cleveland Cavaliers maximized their roster according to advanced statistics?
Advanced statistics are helpful in determining a player’s individual value. One area that is often overlooked is salary per minutes played. In the NBA, we rarely think about how many minutes a player plays when evaluating the value of his contract.
The purpose of this article is use advanced metrics applied to Cavs players’ salaries per minute. This will give insight into David Griffin’s genius and offer a blueprint for roster construction. The advanced metrics used in this article are Player Efficience Rating (PER), Estimated Wins Added (EWA), and Real Plus Minus (RPM).
Before diving in, I must give a few caveats.
First, I’m only including qualified players. Someone like James Jones is not included because he does not meet the NBA statistical minimums. Second, this about the Cleveland Cavaliers. An NBA-wide advanced stats article is something for Nate Silver to write. Third, I’m not including Kyle Korver or Mike Dunleavy Jr. because of their trade.
Now, let’s begin!
Check out the chart on salaries for 2016-2017 and dollars per minute (through 41 games).
Name | 2016-2017 Salary | Paid through 41 games | Minutes Played | Dollars per Minute |
---|---|---|---|---|
LeBron James | $30,963,450 | $15,481,725 | 1409 | $10,987.74 |
Kevin Love | $21,165,675 | $10,582,837.50 | 1137 | $9,307.68 |
Kyrie Irving | $17,638,063 | $8,819,031.50 | 1251 | $7,049.59 |
Tristan Thompson | $15,330,435 | $7,665,217.50 | 1177 | $6,512.50 |
Iman Shumpert | $9,662,922 | $4,831,461 | 977 | $4,945.20 |
Channing Frye | $7,806,971 | $3,903,485.50 | 647 | $6,033.21 |
Richard Jefferson | $2,500,000 | $1,250,000 | 790 | $1,582.28 |
DeAndre Liggins | $1,015,696 | $507,848 | 549 | $925.04 |
This seems about right. The more you make, the more minutes you play, the less dollars per minute spent. The only anomaly is Channing Frye, who is making more per minute than Iman Shumpert and almost as much as Tristan Thompson, despite being paid less per year than those two because he does not play as often.
Now let’s take this dollars/minute number and apply it to the three advanced statistics listed above: PER, EWA, RPM.
Name | Dollars per Minute | Player Efficiency Rating | Est. Wins Added | Real Plus Minus |
---|---|---|---|---|
LeBron James | $10,987.74 | 25.9 | 10.8 | 6.81 |
Kevin Love | $9,307.68 | 22.8 | 6.4 | 4.77 |
Kyrie Irving | $7,049.59 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 1.31 |
Tristan Thompson | $6,512.50 | 15.0 | 2.5 | 0.81 |
Iman Shumpert | $4,945.20 | 11.0 | 0.2 | -1.69 |
Channing Frye | $6,033.21 | 15.6 | 1.3 | 0.86 |
Richard Jefferson | $1,582.28 | 7.2 | -1.3 | -2.59 |
DeAndre Liggins | $925.04 | 6.4 | -1.2 | -0.77 |
Again, this looks pretty good. Frye rates a bit higher than Shumpert in the advanced statistic department and is on par with Thompson’s rating. That Frye is making more per minute makes sense! As much as we are in love with Kyrie, Kevin Love is also playing up to his contract value.
Now, let’s take a look at some players with contracts, minutes, and playing styles comparable to the Cavs top 6, by position, and see how they compare. (Richard Jefferson and DeAndre Liggins are not getting comparison players because of their low salaries.)
Name | Comparison | Dollars per Minute | Player Efficiency Rating | Est. Wins Added | Real Plus Minus |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin Durant | Lebron James | $9,189.79 | 27.99 | 12.6 | 5.37 |
Ryan Anderson | Kevin Love | $6,944.58 | 13.93 | 1.6 | 1.59 |
Goran Dragic | Kyrie Irving | $6,594.08 | 17.87 | 4.1 | -1.07 |
Jonas Valanciunas | Tristan Thompson | $6,658.34 | 19.02 | 4.5 | -1.85 |
Gerald Henderson | Iman Shumpert | $5,090.50 | 11.66 | 0.5 | -2.12 |
Anthony Tolliver | Channing Frye | $6,441.22 | 12.6 | 0.2 | -1.03 |
Italics indicate this player’s value is HIGHER than his Cavaliers counterpart
As you can see, the Cavs have done a very good job at pricing players according to their individual talent. Looking at the comparisons, all players of a similar salary, usage, and skill set, you see the Cavs players statistically outperform or match more than half of the time. This is not even taking into account the intangible value that a guy like Frye or Jefferson brings in with their locker room presence.
The Cavs have placed a premium on fit; these players’ great seasons are due to James’ presence. He is the catalyst of greatness. When you look at someone like Durant, he is individually great, but he does not make anyone around statistically better. Ironically, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson are all having down years as we’re waiting to see Durant’s impact on the biggest stage.
In a simple exercise of the value of the NBA dollar, it becomes clear that the Cavs have found a formula for getting those most of out what they pay players. Of course, this analysis did not include a down year for the injured J.R. Smith or recently acquired Kyle Korver. Clearly, the Cavs are intelligently spending a ton of money.
Comparing Griffin’s run to what Chris Grant tried to pull off in 2010 with a post-deadline lineup featuring J.J. Hickson (15.2 PER), LeBron James (31.1 PER), Antwan Jamison (16.7 PER), Anthony Parker (9.9 PER), Mo Williams (16.1 PER) and Anderson Varejao (15.8 PER) shows how valuable Griffin has been. Griffin has learned from Grant’s mistakes.
Related Story: Cleveland Cavaliers GM David Griffin Believes Team Needs Frontcourt Depth
What do you think? Have the Cleveland Cavaliers assembled a lineup of players whose play matches their contractual value? Let us know in the comments section or Twitter @KJG_NBA.