What If: Cavaliers Never Trade for Timofey Mozgov

Cavaliers GM David Griffin made a bold and interesting move when he traded two first-round picks for Timofey Mozgov. What if he had kept those picks for future transactions? What would’ve happened?

Cleveland Cavaliers General Manager David Griffin knew that something had to change.

Along with the entire Cavaliers organization, he spent the 2014 summer courting hometown hero LeBron James. Once the King returned, Griffin, sensing that his newest superstar’s title window wouldn’t last forever, dealt the unproven commodity that was Andrew Wiggins for a game-changing, young star in Kevin Love. The league’s newest and most exciting “Big 3” had been assembled in Cleveland.

As we all know now, the beginning of that season was, for lack of a better word, a disaster. LeBron’s back wasn’t right throughout camp, Kyrie Irving was having games with one, two and, sometimes no assists, a no-no for an upper echelon starting point guard, and fans were clamoring for Kevin Love to be traded, just months after Griffin had acquired him.

After starting 19-17, Griffin traded two first rounders, a lottery-protected first from the Oklahoma City Thunder and a heavily protected first from the Memphis Grizzlies to the Denver Nuggets for Russian big man Timofey Mozgov.

While Mozgov made an immediate impact on that team, he wasn’t quite the same player this past season. A lot of his struggles, and Tristan Thompson‘s subsequent successes, can be traced to the changing landscape of the league. Teams are moving away from slow, prodding big men in favor of versatile, athletic specimens who can switch ball screens and stay attached to smaller players.

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What if Griffin had foreseen this evolution and not dealt those valuable assets for Mozgov? How would the Cavs roster have looked this past season and today?

In order to iron out all the different scenarios, we have to look at both picks that were moved, whether they’ve been conveyed, the various players picked in those slots relative to other players who were available and various players around the league that have been moved over the past year in exchange for draft picks.

The pick that belongs to the Grizzlies has some strange protections, and thus hasn’t been conveyed yet. The past two drafts it has been protected for picks 1-5 and 15-30 so the Grizzlies would’ve kept the pick if they were either one of the worst teams in the league (they weren’t) or if they were good enough to make the playoffs both years (they were). This year, however, the pick is only protected for picks 1-5 so it’s very likely that it will finally change hands.

The other pick in the deal, belonging to the Thunder, was lottery protected in 2015 and, since the Thunder missed the playoffs that year, they kept the pick. The Thunder bounced back this past year, having an excellent season, thus forfeiting the pick, which would eventually become the 26th pick in the 2016 draft.

In a trade involving Javale McGee, the Nuggets traded the Thunder’s first round selection to the Philadelphia 76ers and they used it to take Furkan Korkmaz, a 19-year-old Turkish sharpshooter.

If the Cavs were making this pick, it’s very unlikely they would’ve selected Korkmaz. He’s a young player with upside, the kind of player who is perfect for the 76ers at this juncture of their rebuilding plan, but the Cavs aren’t rebuilding. Their time to compete and win, as evidenced by last season, is now.

Griffin would’ve looked for experienced, veteran college players who can step in, compete and contribute to a championship contending team. Finding those types of players is a lot easier said than done, and it’s rare that anyone picked after the lottery is ready to step in their first year and make a difference on a championship contending roster. The Golden State Warriors picked two players after Korkmaz, Damion Jones, a center out of Vanderbilt, and Patrick McCaw, a swingman out of UNLV who would’ve been good fits in Cleveland because of their veteran prowess and defined skill sets.

The most likely scenario involving these picks, however, would’ve been another trade for a veteran or a promising young player coming into his own. Objectively, the Mozgov trade wasn’t good value for the Cavs. It’s never a good idea to give up one, let alone two first round picks for an average player. Griffin was able to make the trade because, with LeBron in tow, first round picks were far less valuable to the team than players who could make an immediate difference.

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The Cavs traded for Mozgov roughly one and a half years ago. Since then, various other productive players have been moved for first rounders. Some of them include Arron Afflalo, Isaiah Thomas, Markieff Morris, Brandan Wright and Jeff Green. Jared Dudley and Zaza Pachulia, two serviceable, rotation-level players were even moved for second rounders during that time. Afflalo has been a free agent the last two summers and Green was a free agent this summer so giving up any valuable assets for either of them wouldn’t have been a good investment.

Morris and Wright are both interesting cases. Morris was disgruntled in Phoenix this past year, requested a trade and was even linked to the Cavs before eventually being traded to the Washington Wizards. In terms of talent and fit, he’s an undersized four-man who can stretch out to the three-point line and attack closeouts. A lot of his skills overlap with those of Kevin Love but it never hurts to have another shooter and scoring threat on the floor.

Wright is a springy big man who is a lot smaller than Mozgov, but who can do a lot of the same things on the basketball court. He blocks shots at a high level and, because of that reputation, deters smaller players from driving into the paint.

If Griffin had never pulled the trigger on the Mozgov deal, would he have acquired one of these two bigs? At the very least, he would’ve had the assets to get a deal done and the Cavs could’ve had a younger, more effective rotation player heading into next season.

Timofey Mozgov played well upon his arrival, but struggled in his final season with the Cavs. What are your thoughts on the Cavs giving up two firsts for Mozgov? Let us know in the comments section or follow and tweet us @KJG_NBA.