What if Joel Embiid didn’t get hurt before the 2014 Draft and was selected by the Cavaliers? How would that decision have changed the fate of the franchise?
“What If?”
It’s one of the most fun, interesting and intriguing questions in sports. Every fan wants to play arm-chair general manager and second guess move after move, retrospectively wondering: what if we had signed the other guy instead or what if we had drafted that stud instead of the bust we ultimately picked?
On the surface, it’s a fun exercise that, so often leads to debate amongst friends with strong opinions about the NBA and their respective teams. But, dig a little deeper and these conversations become a lot more interesting. There’s still the discussion about the initial decision but, in any professional sports league, and specifically the NBA, one decision sends ripple effects throughout the entire league.
It’s similar to a domino effect. One move leads to the next which leads to the next and so on. If you alter a move at the beginning of the chain, it fundamentally changes everything that comes after it.
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Now, let’s rewind to the 2014 NBA Draft. Based on what we’ve seen these last two years, it’d be easy to say that the Cleveland Cavaliers and General Manager David Griffin got it right when they selected Andrew Wiggins with the No. 1 overall pick.
It’s easy to forget that, leading up to the draft, the consensus guy at the top of draft boards was Joel Embiid, the oft-injured Philadelphia 76ers big man out of Kansas who’s played as many NBA games as you and me in his short career.
This leads us back to the question at hand: What if the Cavs had taken Embiid instead of Wiggins in the 2014 NBA Draft?
For the sake of this hypothetical, we’re assuming that Embiid doesn’t suffer the stress fracture of the navicular bone in his right foot directly before the draft. In order for this to be a plausible scenario, he would have to be healthy at the time of the draft.
Wiggins only donned a Cavaliers jersey in photoshoots and Summer League games before being shipped away to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Kevin Love trade and slipping on his new threads. Would Embiid have suffered the same fate?
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When LeBron James left in 2010, former General Manager Chris Grant launched a full-scale and far reaching rebuilding project.
When the prodigal son returned in 2014, the rebuilding plan was over. No team with LeBron will ever be rebuilding. The Cavs and Griffin recognized that it was time to go for it and the Wiggins-Love trade was made with that win-now philosophy in mind.
Fans envisioned the Wiggins-LeBron wing tandem as the second coming of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, but LeBron couldn’t afford to wait around and discover what Wiggins could become. Love was a known commodity and there’s security in that.
Embiid was different. It wasn’t about could with him. He had tools that were going to make him an immediate force in the NBA. This is a guy who, prior to the 2014 Draft, was mentioned in the same breath as Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon. Those comparisons don’t get thrown around lightly.
Forget about offense. Forget that Duncan and Olajuwon were two of the most gifted post scorers of their respective generations. It’s often forgotten because it’s the less glamorous end of the floor, but those two were among the best defenders of all time.
It’s on that end of the floor where Embiid would’ve made a significant difference. At the NBA combine in 2014, he measured in at 7-foot-0, 250 pounds with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. For a guy his size, he was surprisingly mobile and agile, traits that boded well for his defensive future before his various injuries.
I mean, just look at this picture of him and teammate Ben Simmons, keeping in mind that Simmons is 6-foot-10, 240 pounds.
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In 2014, Embiid had another thing working in his favor. The NBA was absolutely obsessed with rim protectors. Today, every team preaches versatility and skill. They want players who can play multiple positions.
Two years ago, the en-vogue trend in the league was the rim-protecting big man. Roy Hibbert was a household name. Kendrick Perkins was starting on a contender. The Cavs even gave up two first-round picks for Timofey Mozgov because they grew impatient in their quest for a rim protector.
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This is why I don’t think the Embiid-Love trade-off ever comes to fruition. I do still believe Love ends up in a Cavaliers uniform. Minnesota had no leverage; they knew they had to trade him, LeBron wanted him and the Golden State Warriors weren’t giving up Klay Thompson for him.
But I think LeBron would’ve wanted Embiid as well, and would’ve made it a priority to keep him on the team. I think LeBron believed that a guy like Wiggins was a dime a dozen in terms of his talent and skill set, however, as a student of the game and a basketball lifer, he would’ve recognized that Embiid possessed unique gifts, both as a physical specimen and as a basketball player.
The Love trade package would’ve been a bit different. It’s likely that Dion Waiters would’ve been involved, along with more future picks. Griffin has proven his worth as a general manager and, at LeBron’s urging, he would’ve found a way to get it done.
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Without Waiters in tow, do the Cavs end up with shirtless hero J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert? It’s impossible to know. Do they still end up winning the title in 2016? That’s also impossible to know. What I do know is that any team with Kyrie Irving, LeBron, Love and Embiid as the center pieces is set up as a championship contender for both the present and the future.