Projecting The 2016 NBA Finals MVP

In the 2016 NBA Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have put on a show. For the Warriors, it seems like a different guy steps up each game. For the Cavaliers, the King and Kyrie have taken over, but are they the only viable options given recent history? This year’s NBA Finals MVP will be harder to decide this year. Here’s my assessment of this year’s NBA Finals MVP candidates.

The king has not left us. LeBron James is averaging 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. He’s shooting 49.6% from the field and 37.5% from three, seeming to have found his shooting stroke on the biggest stage. He’s been the unquestioned leader of this team, setting the tone and at times, being the only effective playmaker for this Cleveland Cavaliers team. Defensively, he’s held his opponent under their average field goal percent by 13%. The King is also averaging 2.4 steals and 2.0 blocks per game. He’s been sensational with three near triple-doubles to start the Finals. In a must win Game 3, he started in place of Kevin Love and led the team to their first -and necessary- win after going down 2-0 to the Golden State Warriors. In Game 5, a historic NBA Finals game, LeBron scored 41 points including 4 from deep, had 16 rebounds, 4 offensive, 7 assists and 6 in the third, and 2 very memorable blocks. Statistically, this was his best playoff performance ever, and it came in an NBA Finals elimination game. While two (potential) Finals losses would tarnish his legacy, to some, the way he’s played in the Finals the last two years should remove all doubt about who the best player in the game is.

Draymond Green‘s absence in Game 5 was insurmountable, and could provide the reason he wins MVP. His playmaking on offense and efficiency on catch and shoot threes, his rim protection, his on-ball switching, and his elite ability to contest shots are all important and reasons why the Warriors win handily so consistently. What’s most important about Draymond is the emotional intangible he brings and the confidence he instills in his teammates. In the NBA Finals the Splash Brothers have come up dry more often than not. “Dray” has kept the Warriors in the driver’s seat with 14.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists while making opponents shoot 9.1% less effectively than they had been, and gets better the closer they get towards the rim, holding them to a shooting percentage 17.1% less than their average when they shoot up close. He has been the Warriors most consistent player on both sides of the ball.

But Kyrie Irving, if not LeBron James, has likely been the MVP of this Finals series. In addition to outplaying Stephen Curry, the league’s first unanimous regular season MVP. Kyrie’s play has made Curry the player was prematurely dubbed the best player in the league by seemingly everybody just because of the range on his jump shot and the accuracy of which he could shoot a bad one. In this Finals, the public is quickly learning that without that, he doesn’t bring much else. K.I. is averaging 28.3 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game and while shooting he’s been efficient at 48.7% shooting overall, 40.7% shooting from three, and 90.9% shooting from the line. He has also managed 2.4 steals per game while help account for Curry’s, his primary matchup, 4.4 turnovers per game. In Game 5 he scored 41 points on 70.3% shooting and a lot of this shots were contested. He also was the primary playmaker in the first half when LeBron had only one assist.It was the most amazing and unprecedented game by a Cavalier this season and for one night, he was definitely the best teammate LeBron has ever had.

Andre Iguodala hasn’t been as effective defending LeBron James this year as last year and he hasn’t hit nearly as many threes. Because he’s been the primary defender on the other team’s best player and if the Golden State Warriors win because LeBron didn’t put the Cleveland over the top, his name will be in consideration, especially if he begins scoring at a higher clip, especially more of his open threes. In the Finals, he’s averaging 11 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, while shooting 35.8% from three. He’s holding LeBron James scoring totals lower than they would have been, and though he’s not stopping the assault, he’s come up with timely strips of LeBron at key moments that have helped the Warriors win games.

Call me crazy but Richard Jefferson has been the emotional catalyst for the Cleveland Cavaliers. In a pivotal Game 3, played the type of game his team needed to win with quick decisions, inspired and passionate defense, and aggressive offense. In some ways, he’s the PR guy for this team. He answers questions about the Big Three and the others so politically everybody can be happy but genuinely that everybody can believe he means it. For a team lacking in chemistry most of the season, Jefferson has brought the team together in a way the others haven’t, and that’s as valuable as basically being Love’s replacement in this series. With as much small-ball as the Warriors play and the mismatches they present when they do, Jefferson played a pivotal role in providing a solution for how to beat the Golden State Warriors in Game 3, when the Cavaliers looked like they had no answer. He’s shooting 68% inside the arc and that’s the only stat that can measure his tangible output. The intangibles, his IQ and effort, are what’s really got him a spot on this list.

Because the outcome of the 2016 NBA Finals hasn’t been decided, there’s no particular order as to who should win NBA Finals MVP. Even still, one of the Splash Brothers may put forth a game to put their bake not only into consideration for the award, but at the top of the list. My early vote for either team goes to LeBron James who has been a general like a general on the warfront up to this point, letting his soldiers get involved throughout the playoffs and in the Finals, the finale, being the commander’s top mercenary.

Runner-up? You guessed it, Draymond Green. While Steph has looked less than spectacular due to terrific scheming and execution by the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Klay Thompson has lit it up at times but also been invisible for stretches, Draymond Green has been the consistent, emotional force the Warriors need to sustain their greatness this late into the season. One could argue, with his comments about “a man’s league” prior to Game 5, Klay Thompson was channeling his inner Draymond Green to get them the mental and emotional edge. This what he brings besides elite playmaking on both sides of the ball.

This NBA Finals has been historic, and there’s so much more we want to see from this year’s Finals MVP candidates.