NBA Finals: Five Reasons Cavs Will Win

The NBA Finals begin tonight and Cleveland Cavaliers’ fans have reason for hope!

The Cavs will look to win their first championship in franchise history against the Golden State Warriors. This is undoubtedly the best Cavaliers’ team in history. Out of the three trips to the Finals for Cleveland, this is by far their best chance to win the Finals. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers do have to go against arguably the best team in NBA history.

The Warriors have been playing in a league of their own all season and have looked as close to unbeatable as humanly possible. They finished with a record setting 73 wins this season. Steph Curry is coming off of one of the best scoring seasons in league history and was also the first unanimously selected MVP. Because of the historic run the Warriors are on, no one outside of Cleveland is giving the Cavs a chance to win this series.

That being said, there still are reasons to believe that the Cavs will win this series. Here’s why.

1. The Cavs have had the best offense in the playoffs.

Going by the numbers, Cleveland has had the best offense this postseason. They have the best offensive rating in the playoffs. They are scoring a staggering 116.2 points per 100 possessions.

Tyronn Lue has transformed this team into an offensive juggernaut. They are averaging the most made 3’s a game in NBA playoffs history with 14.4 per contest. They’re also leading the playoffs with a 3-point percentage of 43.4%, which is higher than Golden State’s 40.3%.

As LeBron James loves to point out, the Cavs aren’t a three point shooting team. They can beat you in the paint just as easily as they can beat you with the long ball. The Cavaliers didn’t have the same success from deep and shot under 40% in their series with the Raptors. The lower percentage from deep didn’t affect their offensive rating very much as it was still at an impressive 115 per 100 possessions in the series against Toronto.

The Cavs have shown throughout the playoffs that they can beat teams in a variety of ways. However, to win this series they will need to shoot the 3 ball at a higher rate than they did against Toronto. Golden State was the best three point shooting team all season. The Warriors will make their 3’s seemingly no matter how good their opponents defense is. You can’t expect the Cavs’ defense to take away the Warriors 3-point shooting. The best defense against Golden State is simply making your own 3’s, which is exactly what Cleveland is capable of doing.

To beat the Warriors you must have an offense that can keep pace with their scoring. The Cavs have an offense that is capable of doing that.

2. The Cavs can exploit the Warriors’ weaknesses.

The Warriors weaknesses are that they aren’t a top tier rebounding team and they are careless with the ball on offense. The Cavs are capable of exploiting both of those weaknesses.

One of the reasons why the Thunder were able to get to a 3-1 series lead against the Warriors was because they exploited those weaknesses and created extra possessions. Oklahoma City controlled the defensive and offensive glass. They also did a good job of protecting the ball on offense, while forcing Golden State into many careless turnovers. The Thunder lost the series when they stopped protecting the ball which was evident in the end of game 6.

Cleveland has proven to be a low turnover team throughout the playoffs. They are also a top tier rebounding team that has out rebounded all of their opponents in the playoffs including the Pistons who were the second best rebounding team during the regular season. Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are two of the best rebounders in the game. They both have the ability to expose this weakness the same way Steven Adams did for Oklahoma City.

The Warriors’ offense is nearly impossible to contain in a 7 game series. The way to counteract their explosive offense is by generating more possessions. The Cavs should have the edge in the turnover and rebounding battles. The Cavs ability to execute on both fronts is crucial for the Cavs to win.

3. The Cavs can keep up with the Warriors in transition.

The Warriors are one of the best teams in transition. They can go on huge runs by effectively executing their offense in transition. However, the Thunder proved that they can also be beat in transition.

While the Cavaliers play at a slow pace, they are great in transition. They are great in transition. Kyrie Irving and LeBron are great at finishing in transition. Channing Frye’s consistent 3-point shooting has killed teams in transition because centers aren’t used to staying with their assignment at the 3 point line during transition.

Like Lue has preached throughout the year, the Cavs will need to push the pace to win in the series. They are capable of being a great team and transition. They have the skills to do it. The only question is will they do it.

4. Cleveland has a better bench.

An often overlooked fact from last year’s Finals was the Cavs’ lack of a bench. With the injuries to Love and Irving they only played a 6 to 7 man rotation. Even then most of the players in that rotation were banged up. This year the Cavaliers are going into the Finals fully healthy and with a complete bench.

The Cavs’ bench and LeBron bench unit of Iman Shumpert, Richard Jefferson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Channing Frye are a plus 57 in 70 minutes of play during the playoffs. This unit destroyed the Raptors throughout and are largely responsible for a few of those lopsided scores.

The Warriors, on the other hand, do not have as deep of a bench. They have struggled to find a consistent unit that works. We’ve even seen Anderson Varejao play meaningful minutes throughout the playoffs. They don’t have the same depth as the Cavs do, but they do have skilled players that can come off the bench and make contributions. Shaun Livingston was huge in last year’s Finals. Andre Iguodala is a great bench player that understands his role and fills it perfectly. If Steve Kerr chooses to start Iguodala then Harrison Barnes would come off the bench instead.

Golden State does have a few strong players coming off of the bench, but the Cavs bench has been much better these playoffs. Kerr usually sits Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Curry at the same time. The LeBron and bench unit will dominate the Warriors bench unit if the Warriors sub all three out at the same time. We’ll see if Kerr staggers his three stars rest.

Either way, this is an area where the Cavaliers have a distinct advantage this series. We’ll see if Cleveland can exploit it to it’s fullest.

5. LeBron James.

Like LeBron sometimes reminds us, he’s still the best player in the world. There is no denying how special of a player Curry is, but he’s still not on LeBron’s level.

This is a series that James can ultimately cement his legacy. His team is underdogs going against what some are calling the best team in NBA history. If he can will the Cavaliers to a championship, this will be the greatest accomplishment of his NBA career.

There is a lot of talk about how Cavs don’t have anyone that can guard Curry or Thompson, but it should also be pointed out that the Warriors don’t have anyone that can guard LeBron. Iguodala did a serviceable job guarding James at the end of the series last year, but it can be argued that his success should be more attributed to James being tired and not great defense.

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The Cavs had success last year by feeding James the ball in the post. Unlike last year, the Warriors will not have the luxury of being able to double team him every time. Cleveland now has the shooters that can make them pay for a double team.

While all of the stats say that the Cavs shouldn’t have a chance to win this series, the one thing that the stats can’t account for is a healthy and rested LeBron. James showed us all that he has another gear left in him during game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If he can consistently reach that level this series, the Cavs will be a tough team to beat four out of seven times.

Cleveland isn’t expected to win this series, but there are reasons to believe that this team can end the title drought.

What reasons for hope you have for the Cavs in the NBA Finals?