ECF Game 2: Carroll, Irving Iffy – Bigger Impact?
The Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) Game 2 is tonight and two starters, one from each team, are questionable for the game. DeMarre Carroll got good news that there was no structural damage to his knee but he reportedly is walking gingerly during shoot around this morning. Kyrie Irving, as we discussed in an earlier piece, has been hobbled and is questionable for tonight as well.
That leads us to the question of which player’s absence would have a bigger impact on the game if they both miss tonight? Current thought is both will miss the game. Irving is unquestionably the more talented of the two players but in a team game it doesn’t mean his absence would be greater.
Lets take a look at what each player brings and who their replacement(s) will be.
Carroll
Role: Caroll is the Hawks primary wing defender and he is very good at it. If the Cavs didn’t have LeBron James, Carroll would have been switched onto J.R. Smith last game after the first two made 3 pointers. Carroll is also an improved shooter, 40% from deep on 4 plus attempts in the regular season. He shots a solid 49% from the field overall on 9 plus attempts as well. His coring has gone up 4 points in the post season and he is rebounding more as well.
Replacement: Carroll will likely be replaced by Kent Bazemore. The 25 year old third year player is on his 3rd team. He found a niche with the Lakers last year before joining the Hawks in the off-season. He is an active but undersized player to replace Carroll at small forward. 6’5″ and 201 pounds, Bazemore gives up 3 inches and 50 pounds to LeBron James. He only averaged 18 minutes a game in the regular season contributing 5 points and 3 boards during that time. He shot 43% from the field and 36% from deep, only less than 2 attempts per game.
Loss: The Hawks lose size, defense and shooting with Bazemore in for Carroll. Bazemore is very active and energetic but the drop off in talent from Carroll to Bazemore, for this series, is big.
Irving
Role: Kyrie Irving is a little bit of everything for the Cavs. He and LeBron share ball handling responsibilities. He penetrates and finishes at the rim at an elite level and is a very good shooter. His defense is improved this year to the point where he is an okay defender. He averaged 22 points, 5 assists and 3 rebounds during the regular season. Those numbers have dipped in the Playoffs due to his injury issues.
Replacement: Matthew Dellavedova, star of Game 6 against the Chicago Bulls, replaces Irving in the starting lineup. Delly is a bulldog defender who is big and strong. He sometimes struggles with being pressured bring the ball up but is general a safe decision maker with the ball. His shooting has improved as his confidence has risen this season. Delly averaged 5 points, 3 assists and 2 rebounds during the regular season. Even with Irving’s injuries, those numbers haven’t changed much in the post season.
Loss: Without Irving, the Cavs lose their second ball handler. While Delly can bring the ball up the court, only LeBron, and a limited amount of J.R. Smith, can penetrate consistently. Irving’s shooting, or the threat of it, also keeps the floor spaced well for LeBron slashing and the big men in the paint.
Mitigating Factors: The final piece to the puzzle is the mitigating factors of how these players are used by their teams. The Cavs are dependent on the talent of Irving to create things for the rest of the team, besides LeBron James. The Hawks on the other hand are dependent on their system to make things work for their players. Yet on the defensive end there is an improvement for the Cavs and a steep drop off for the Hawks from the starters to their replacements.
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Bigger Impact: The Cavs are worse off without Irving than the Hawks without Carroll. While LeBron will look to dominate Bazemore, the Hawks defensive system will look to make up for the loss. Paul Milsap will likely see more LBJ time as well. There is very little the Cavs can do to replace Irving outside of scrapping how LeBron likes to play offense and go to a David Blatt heavy offense. With only 1 ball penetrator, the Cavs offense could be severely limited.
The Hawks will be hurt by missing Carroll but have their system to rely on. The Cavs rely on their talented players and the loss of Irving would cut the Big 3 down to a Big 1, no matter how much the other guys fill in. Even Irving at 60% would be a huge impact on the Cavs chances tonight in Game 2 of the ECF.
Who do you think would have a bigger impact on Game 2 of the ECF if they miss?