Previewing the East Finals with Jared and Spencer

Just hours before Game 1 the Eastern Conference Finals, King James Gospel’s Jared Mueller and Spencer Davies decided to do a back-and-forth for the first time in a couple of months- and this time around, it was a preview of the upcoming series between the Atlanta Hawks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Enjoy and let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

The East Finals start tonight and the #1 and 2 seeds are here, are you surprised at all?

JM – Honestly, I am a little surprised for both teams for a couple of reasons. The Cleveland Cavaliers have had to deal with so many injuries that I just wasn’t sure they could make it. I knew LeBron James would do everything he could, but I just wasn’t sure if he would wear down.

The Hawks seemingly have skipped a step. They were the eighth seed last year and the sixth the year before, and they didn’t get out of the first round either time. Most teams, except for those with big free agent additions, generally progress year after year. The Hawks being here after going out in the first round is a little surprising.

What do you think? Are you surprised, Spencer?

SD – Something tells me that we’ve talked about this before, Jared. And as I, and most, said a couple of months ago- the Cavaliers and Hawks are officially set to do battle in the Eastern Conference Finals, and it is not in the least surprising.

Both teams have been challenged in different ways. Atlanta has shown signs of weakness and inexperience in the first two rounds, as people saw watching the seven-game series with the eighth-seeded Nets and the most recent (and entertaining) series with the Washington Wizards. The Cavs have been plagued by the injury bug, losing Kevin Love in the first round and most recently affecting Kyrie Irving on what seems like every part of his body. But what they both share is one common characteristic- the ability to grind it out and win.

Both teams, especially the Cavaliers, have dealt with very physical teams in the playoffs already and could be worn out. With that said, what kind of series do you think this will be, Jared?

JM – I think it will be the opposite for the first few games, a free flowing series with a lot of up and down basketball. Once either team gets down (I expect the Cavs to be up 2 – 1 at least), then it will get more physical. The Celtics and Bulls series were both physical but really ramped up as the Cavs took commanding leads. Even if the Cavs get down, they will want to muck things up a bit with their physical players. LeBron, Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellavedova and Timofey Mozgov can be very, very physical.

What do you think about the idea that this series is the “stars” (Cavs) versus the “team” (Hawks)? Accurate or a media driven storyline to you?

SD – That’s a great question, and though I usually disagree with national narratives, it’s spot on in this case. Here you have Cleveland– a team with two all-stars (all-star MVPs, at that) and a very talented supporting cast– going up against the Hawks, a well-oiled machine that saw the team’s entire starting lineup win the NBA’s Player(s) of the Month for the first time in the league’s history back in January.

Atlanta focuses more on the fundamentals of the game and relies heavily on ball movement and its defense. The Cavaliers put the brunt of their games on the shoulders of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, as well as their guards shooting from distance. Oh, and Cleveland’s defense has dramatically improved since the last time these two teams met and is pretty impressive in its own right.

How important is it to set the tone in this series for both teams, and why?

JM – I think it is far more important for the Hawks to set the tone than the Cavs. The Hawks, as you noted, basically win with their talent fitting into their system. While I compared them to the Spurs of the East, they don’t have the high level talent the Spurs do. They need to set the tone with their system to try to rattle the Cavs. The Cavs have shown they can win in a variety of ways and their “tone” is LBJ and Irving along with their solid defense, which travels everywhere. The Hawks, as we have seen in the Playoffs already, can go cold on offense, since shooting isn’t as certain game to game, and it seems to really impact their confidence and defense.

Do you think the Cavs defense in the playoffs so far is them or playing two poor offensive teams in the Bulls and Celtics?

SD – Well isn’t that certainly a hot take. My answer? Absolutely not. Granted it’s obvious that Chicago and Boston were not the most offensively geared teams, a trio of a healthy Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol could be dangerous to any team in the NBA. Cleveland’s defensive rotations have been superb thus far in the postseason. It’s been very rare for their opponents to get open looks on the perimeter, and their interior defense has been relentless in denying easy looks under the basket.

The regular season is the regular season, and the playoffs are the playoffs- but Atlanta won the regular season series against the Cavaliers, 3-1. Do the Hawks have their number, or will this not hold?

JM – I wouldn’t say that the Hawks have the Cavs number, but I would say that they are a tough match-up. Their constant ball and player movement opens things up against any defense, but against the Cavs it can be especially effective because Cleveland rotates on defense more than most teams. With the Hawks moving constantly, it can create mismatches and leave players open. Their starting five can all shoot well for their positions. Horford and Millsap can play in the post, and Teague, Carroll and Millsap can put the ball on the floor. There are a lot of threats there.

Because I wonder these things, how would Kevin Love being healthy impact this series, in your opinion, versus how big he would have been against the Bulls?

SD – I think it goes back to floor spacing, but missing Kevin Love takes out a huge chunk away from scoring, rebounding and fast breaks regardless of the opponent. Defensively, he was lacking a little bit on rotations, so Pau Gasol still would have scored with ease. But on the other end of the court, Love would have forced either him or Joakim Noah outside of the paint to open up the middle for slashing and easier buckets for the Cavs.

If Cleveland had him for the upcoming ECF against the Hawks, it would be different because the Hawks are a completely different team. For example, Paul Millsap is more athletic and has played some small forward before, so he’s more of a stretch four than Gasol; and again, on defense Love would have more difficulty keeping up with Millsap and Al Horford rather Chicago’s bigs.

Kyle Korver was lights out this season, and his shooting has significantly gotten worst in the postseason so far. Is this downward trend one you expect to continue?

JM – Man that is a tough one. Korver is such a great shooter it is shocking to see him struggle for two series. On the one hand he may be getting tired and worn down from a much longer season than he is used to. The travel schedule may also be wearing him down. On the other hand, good shooters tend to pull out of their slumps and Korver is ready to breakout. I think it is the latter and that Korver hits a ton of 3s on his especially with our scrambling defense. I am far more worried about Korver and Jeff Teague than I am Paul Milsap and Al Horford, as crazy as that sounds.

The Cavs seemed to do better when they went small against the Bulls. Do you think they revert to these tactics or try to stay big?

SD – It’s all about matchups, so that I can’t say– but the Hawks aren’t a particularly large team as far as size goes, so I foresee a lot of Tristan Thompson and LeBron James in the frontcourt. Personally, I prefer smaller lineups because in transition it can help get the ball down the floor quickly and lead to quicker baskets. In the same breath, though, Cavs head coach David Blatt could use Timofey Mozgov’s size to his team’s advantage by getting him the ball in the post early.

Speaking of coach Blatt, what are your thoughts on all of the negativity surrounding him in the national spotlight? Does he deserve it?

JM – You’re full of some good ones today. I think David Blatt was put in a very tough situation. He has a great system that he believes works, but on the other hand he has LeBron James, who does things a little different. I was hopeful that LeBron’s losing to the Spurs would lead him to want to do things differently and buy into Blatt’s system. That hasn’t totally happened, but he has bought in some. I think Blatt has done a good job of trying to continue to push his system (BTW whenever I see a “Blatt play” on offense, we tend to score or get a really good shot) while working with James and Irving to get them comfortable. I’d give Blatt a 7/10 on the season.

Last question for me, what is your prediction for the series and who is your X-Factor for both teams?

SD – You would end this back-and-forth with a loaded question, but I’m happy to oblige. Give me the Cavaliers winning in seven games. It’s a cliche to bring up, but outside of maybe Jeff Teague, Atlanta does not have a go-to guy in crunch time. They are not a physical team, and Cleveland is the hungriest and most motivated they have been the entire year, regular season and playoffs combined. The Cavs X-Factor in this series is Kyrie Irving, and the only thing he has to do is stay as healthy as he can. There’s no doubt in my mind that he isn’t the toughest player out on the floor, and even at 40%, he is an irreplaceable scoring option (and a developing leader).

Atlanta’s X-Factor title will rest on the shoulders of the man we touched on briefly earlier– Kyle Korver. If the Hawks are going to beat Cleveland in this series, and it will take seven games to do it, Korver needs to play like his regular-season self. Thus far in the postseason, he’s shooting 38.5% from the field, which is the lowest since his first year in the playoffs with Sixers back in 2004-05. Korver is apparently a notoriously worse shooter in the postseason (40.9%) than in the regular season (44.2%) in his career, especially when it comes to beyond the arc (37.6% in the playoffs compared to 43.2% in the regular season). If this continues, it could play a huge factor into sending Cleveland to the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2007-08 season.

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I’ve given my prediction, now it’s time for yours! Who do you have in this one Jared, and who are your X-Factors?

JM – I am a bit crazy here, but I have the Cavs in 5. I think they dominate the series starting in game one, the gentleman’s sweep if you will. I think that James Jones will be the Cavs X-Factor in this series. The Cavs will want his deep shooting to combat some of the big guys on the Hawks.

Pero Antic or Mike Muscala will be the Hawks X-Factor. The Cavs will help off of them to protect against the Hawks’ better players. They can hit some shots and attack the loose balls, getting the garbage points. I’m not expecting them to have a huge series though as my 5 game prediction shows.

Next: The Spurs-like Nature of the Hawks a Concern