As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon, the Chicago Bulls are losing to the San Antonio Spurs on ABC. If San Antonio is able to hold on for a victory, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be in sole possession of the second seed in the Eastern Conference, until at least tonight. If the Raptors win, the Cavs and Raptors would once again be tied for second. While that sounds great, is it really the best thing for the Cavaliers come playoff time? Surprisingly, it appears that the answer may be no.
There’s no doubt the Cavaliers want to finish in at least the third seed going into the NBA Playoffs. The top four seeds have home court advantage, at least in the first round, and every team wants that. It also makes sense that any team would want to finish higher than the fourth seed, as whoever is in that spot will likely have to face the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Despite the Cavaliers’ excellent play over the last two months, Atlanta has been the best team in the Eastern Conference (and arguably the entire NBA) for the entire season, and it is in every teams’ interest to avoid seeing them in the playoffs as long as possible. Let Toronto, or preferably Chicago, deal with the Hawks in the second round.
So why does it matter whether the Cavaliers are the second or third seed in the East? Well that has nothing to do with the Hawks or Bulls and everything to do with the Indiana Pacers. Without many people noticing, the Pacers have won five games in a row and are a league-best 11-2 since the beginning of February. They have pulled into a tie with the Miami Heat for the seventh and eighth spots in the East, and have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Indiana is also expecting Paul George, their superstar wing, to return to action. Already looking like the team none of the top seeds will want to play in the first round, the return of a healthy George could bring the Pacers close to being the team that made the Eastern Conference Finals the previous two seasons. Finally, the Pacers are a battle-tested group who play a physical style that gives the Cavaliers some trouble, as evidenced by their 1-2 record against Indiana so far this season.
Meanwhile, the third seed in the Eastern Conference will likely play the Milwaukee Bucks, or possibly the Washington Wizards. The Bucks are a tremendous story, and head coach Jason Kidd deserves credit for building a terrific defense based around Milwaukee’s strength and athleticism, but the trade of Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams took away the team’s number one scoring option. The Bucks are just 3-6 since that trade, and it’s difficult to see them scoring enough to win even one game in a series against the Cavs. The Wizards meanwhile are just 4-11 since the beginning of February, and now seem much closer to teams like the Bucks and (Chris Bosh-less) Heat than they do to the top four teams in the East.
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It would be great if the Cavaliers could somehow catch the Hawks for the top seed in the East and avoid this issue altogether, but that simply isn’t going to happen. The best case scenario for the Cavaliers is would be for the team to avoid Indiana in the first round, see the Bulls slip to the fourth seed, and not see Chicago or Atlanta until the Eastern Conference Finals. By the looks things, that also means the Cleveland Cavaliers are also best off if the finish as the third seed in the Eastern Conference. It’s almost too bad that the Bulls and Toronto Raptors seem all too willing to concede the second seed to Cleveland.