Trade Season in the NBA has begun, and begun with a bang. In a move to attempt to put themselves firmly in the championship picture, the Dallas Mavericks have acquired former four time All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo from the Boston Celtics. At first glance, this trade seems to be of little concern to the Cleveland Cavaliers. After all, the Dallas Mavericks are in the Western Conference, and for them to be a concern of the Cavaliers both teams would have to meet in the NBA Finals, a scenario both teams would certainly jump at. However, much like a stone thrown into a pond, trades in the NBA have a ripple effect that impacts every other team in the league, and when the player traded is of Rondo’s caliber those ripples become waves.
So how does the Rajon Rondo trade affect the Cavaliers? Well, one could make the argument that it sets the market value for an All-Star perimeter player. The Celtics received a decent, but not spectacular, haul of three rotation players (Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, and Jameer Nelson) and a first round draft pick that will likely fall somewhere in the twenties on draft night. The problem with this perspective is twofold. First, Rondo is no longer an All-Star caliber point guard and hasn’t been one for seasons, and even then he only played in 38 games. This season Rondo has posted a below average PER of 14.2, a number dragged down due to his shooting a ghastly 33% from the line. While still a terrific passer who currently leads the NBA with 10.7 assists per game, Rondo has no other offensive value. His defense has slipped as well, and the Celtics were actually better defensively with Rondo on the bench this season.
The other problem is that what the Celtics actually acquired for their future by trading Rondo to the Celtics is somewhat fluid. In fact, it would be no surprise to see Boston trade all three of their new players by the trade deadline.
Crowder is the most likely to stay. At 24 years old, he fits the age group of Boston’s other young players and has shown potential as a “3-and-D” type of wing that every team (including the Cavaliers) covets. As a restricted free agent this summer, he could certainly be had for the right price (whatever that is), but chances are Boston would prefer to trade older and more expensive players such as Jeff Green, Marcus Thornton, and Evan Turner.
It’s nearly impossible to imagine Nelson staying in Boston. The veteran point guard turns 33 in February and had signed with the Mavericks with the hope of playing for a contender after two years of rebuilding with Orlando. While he can’t finish inside anymore, and is a bit weak defensively due to lack of size and quickness, Nelson is still a good distributor and solid three point shooter who could help a team as a reserve guard. He’s also on a relatively cheap deal at just under $3 million a year for this season and the next. If the Celtics can get a second round pick for Nelson he’s likely gone, and is also a possible buyout candidate if he’s still with Boston after the trade deadline.
What the Celtics decide to do with Wright is the hardest to predict. At 27 years old and an unrestricted free agent this summer, Wright is a bit old and likely a bit pricey for the current Celtics. That being said, he has thrived in Dallas and currently leads the entire NBA in field goal percentage (74.8%, which would be a record for a full season). Despite his thin frame and overall lack of impact on the defensive end, Wright has also has become a decent shot blocker, currently averaging 1.6 blocks per game, a skill the the Celtics young big men (Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, and Jared Sullinger) lack. Ultimately it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Celtics deal Wright for a young player or a future pick before the trade deadline.
So how could this affect the Cavaliers? Wright isn’t a great defender by any means, but he has become a shot blocker, and would add some finishing ability and athleticism to the Cavs’ front court. Wright’s salary of $5 million also fits neatly into the Cavaliers’ Traded Player Exception, which, ironically, the Celtics helped them create. The two teams have gotten together for a number of deals recently, and it wouldn’t a great surprise to see them make another one. Wright and Crowder are both players who could potentially fill the Cavaliers’ needs of perimeter defense and rim protection. While neither player can be traded with another player until February 17, they can be dealt individually at any time. If the Cavaliers and Boston were to come to an agreement and the Cavaliers wanted both men sooner than later, then they could both be traded to Cleveland in two separate deals.
Would the protected first round pick from Memphis and the TPE for Wright along with Lou Amundson for Crowder work? This would be done with the wink-wink understanding that the Memphis pick, which is only top five protected in 2017, would be compensation for both Crowder and Wright. If the Celtics wanted one of the Cavaliers’ heavily protected second round picks as well, that likely wouldn’t be a deal breaker. Nelson also might have made some sense for the Cavaliers as a backup point guard if they wanted to start Matthew Dellavedova at shooting guard, but that probably not an upgrade over the current rotation with Mike Miller starting.
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Another way the Rondo trade affected the Cavaliers was by taking another player they coveted off the table. Besides the Cavaliers, the Houston Rockets were known to be one of the teams interested in trading for swingman Corey Brewer. However Houston was also trying to acquire Rondo from the Celtics and new that they needed to save their better assets for that move. Once Dallas beat them out for Rondo, this allowed Houston to outbid the Cavaliers for Brewer. This may work out for the Cavaliers in the end. Despite being among the league leaders in steals, Brewer is overrated defensively and is a terrible outside shooter who keeps taking outside shots. As our own Jared Mueller as well as Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal pointed out, the Cavaliers need to maximize the assets they do have in any future moves. Trading a first round pick for Corey Brewer would not be doing so.
With just under a third of the season finished, the Cavaliers have shown flashes of being a great team. While they may or may not make a move that puts them over the top, it is important to remember that nearly every other move made by every other team in the league will affect the fortunes of LeBron James and his teammates as well.
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