Cleveland Cavaliers: PG13 to Cavs bridges the gap
I’m writing this during Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the Cleveland Cavaliers are winning by 40. What I know is that they can get better by trading for Paul George.
Hear me out before you dismiss why the Indiana Pacers would do this. I’m going to go through a bit of history for big trades along with the rationale for those trades to illustrate how the Cleveland Cavaliers could end up with Paul George (PG13) as early as July, 2017.
Why the Indiana Pacers do it
The Indiana Pacers do not want to turn into the Miami Heat. By that, I mean that they do not want to simply allow their best player to leave for seemingly nothing. It is pretty easy to go from relevant to rebuilding with one player leaving. As part of the package, the Pacers will probably want to dump one of Monta Ellis’s or Al Jefferson’s contracts.
Therefore, any team wanting Paul George might expect to pay an extra $10M for one of these two players. If the Pacers are not confident that they can lure a top-tier free agent, there is no reason to try to get an 8-seed with a core of George, Jeff Teague, and Myles Turner.
Why the Cleveland Cavaliers do it
The Cavaliers have to plan for LeBron James’ eventual slowing and keep up with the Golden State Warriors. Getting basically a younger version of LeBron (albeit not at his level) is one way to do that. As we have seen again and again over the last few years, a player who can play positions 2, 3, and 4 is more valuable than someone who can only play 4 and 5 (Kevin Love). The Cavs clearly do not care about salary, and bringing Jefferson back would actually make sense for a backup big, which the Cavs have sorely lacked to spell Tristan Thompson.
The trade
The historical precedent
If you are a Pacers fan, you’re thinking, “there is no way I’m trading Paul George for Kevin Love and a pick in 4 seasons. I hear you, but what are your alternatives? Reportedly, the Hawks offered 4 first-round picks for Paul George, and the Pacers denied them. That’s probably because the Hawks did not do that. No one is worth four first round picks, ask the New Jersey Nets. Anyway, let us look at some history to see why this trade would actually make sense for both teams.
What do all three of these trades have in common?
They involved players in or nearing their primes on expiring or near-expiring contracts for what would be considered lesser players and minimal picks.
From a Cavs-Pacers perspective, this is the exact choice that the Pacers are facing. One could easily argue that Kevin Love is better than any of the players listed here and a dynamic lineup featuring Love and Turner’s inside-outside game would be great for Indiana.
Furthermore, Shumpert could slot in nicely behind Miles and Ellis and play a little point guard while providing solid defense, which Pacer’s guards lack.
Obviously, this is a no-brainer for the Cavs, as they simply slot LeBron over to the four and have PG13 start at the three. Korver backs up Smith, and Jefferson can spell Thompson and LeBron.
What other teams will offer
The Lakers will offer first round picks and D’Angelo Russell but the question is if Russell really a better fit for the Pacers than Love could be. In addition, the Lakers will want to unload either Luol Deng or Timofey Mozgov’s contracts, two players whose potential contributions are questionable. Whereas the Cavaliers will be unloading Shumpert’s contract, who is actually a valuable player.
In fact, Love and Shumpert are still very young and on reasonable contracts.
Teams will offer some combination of picks and young players for the Pacers, but will these picks and young players put the Pacers into contention? If the Pacers get Love and can sign one marquee free agent or two mid-level free agents with their cap space, suddenly, they have a core of Teague, Turner, Love and say Gordon Hayward challenging the Cavs in the East.
Why this will not happen
The Cleveland Cavaliers are easily one of the two best teams in the NBA. They have the best player on the planet. The Cavs are about to head to their third consecutive NBA Finals appearance. They have basically their whole roster under contract for the next 2 years.
While Paul George is an all-world player, he is not a natural fit next to LeBron and he had a major knee injury recently.
In addition, the Cavs already have Kyrie Irving as the heir apparent to LeBron and there will be plenty of opportunities to evaluate talent in the next two or three seasons to see if they need an extra superstar.
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What do you think? Should the Cavs go hard after Paul George? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section or Twitter @KJG_NBA.