Tristan Thompson Starting The Correct Decision

Tristan Thompson has entered the Cavs starting lineup. Why it is the right decision.

Despite the Cleveland Cavaliers holding a 21-9 record and being atop of the Eastern Conference, one position of the team has been questioned all season and that is the starting center spot.

Timofey Mozgov, the same man who turned the Cavaliers defense around last season, has been a shell of himself through just over two months of the season. Mozgov has dealt with injuries and lack of confidence, which has led to him being a liability on the court at both ends. Mozgov’s hands see many should-be dunks turn into turnovers and the Cavs defense is actually better with Mozgov off the court. When he is on the court, Cleveland’s defensive rating is 103.7, which would rank them 19^th in the league. When the Big Russian moves to the bench though, that number improves to 96.1, which would rank the Cavaliers 2^nd in the league.

With Mozgov’s struggles obvious, Coach David Blatt decided to change things up ahead of the Cavs match with the Phoenix Suns, opting to move Tristan Thompson into the starting line-up. Blatt has stated that Thompson will be the start for a while, citing the energy that he brings allows Cleveland to get off to a quicker start. This is a brilliant move by Blatt, as Thompson is in the midst of one of his best seasons and fits a lot better with the starters then Mozgov does.

Thompson’s energy, hustle and effort on the offensive rebounding simply cannot be overlooked, as he is one of the NBA’s best at pulling down missed shots and creating second chances. Thompson is averaging 3.1 offensive rebounds per game this season, which places him 9^th in the entire league. Thompson has an offensive rebounding percentage of 13% and when he comes off the court, the Cavaliers experience a drop-off in offensive rebounding. Cleveland pulls down 25.6% of their offensive rebounding opportunities with Thompson on the court but when he sits, that number dips down to 23.2%.

The Cavs are stacked with firepower on the offensive end, as the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving can tear a defense apart within a matter of seconds. Cleveland is such an offensive machine, so when a defense makes them miss, it is an absolute back-breaker to see Thompson battle his way to an offensive rebound, which allows the Cavs to have another scoring chance. When you’re allowing the leagues 6^th best offense to have multiple more second-chance scoring opportunities, it kills the opponents, not only on the scoreboard, but mentally as well, putting a sense of disbelief and frustration in their mind.

While he is mostly known for his offensive rebounding exploits, Thompson has also shown this season he can be a just as good defensive rebounder. Thompson is averaging 6.8 defensive rebounds this season, easily the highest mark in his career. His defensive rebounding percentage of 26.6% ranks among the leagues best and just like on the offensive glass, the Cavs defensive rebounding percentage suffers a dip in production once Thompson sits. With the feisty Canadian on the court, the Cavs have a defensive rebounding percentage of 80.4% but when he goes to the pine, that number drops to just 76.2%, which is actually a larger difference then the offensive rebounding end.

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While the rebounding has always been there, one of the biggest criticisms of Thompson’s game over his career has been his lack of rim protection. Thompson has been known as soft around the basket, with his lack of size and determination to defend the rim causing opponents to score at an easy rate at the basket against the former Texas Longhorn. Thompson has made a concerned effort to guard the rim at a much more effective tone this season and so far the results have been excellent. When being guarded by Thompson, opposition players are shooting 3.9% worse than their average but as they move closer and closer to the rim, that percentage gets bigger and bigger. When shooting from less than 6ft, Thompson is holding opponents to 7.0% below their average and when their shooting from less than 10ft, he is ever better, as Thompson is holding his opponent to 8.5% below their season average.

According to Nylon Calculus’ rim protection stats (which can be explored in more depth here), Thompson ranks as the leagues 26^th best rim protector, a huge improvement over his previous efforts to protect the rim. Thompson is contesting 32.3% of shots at the rim (which is a high percentage compared to league norms), and when he does, the opponent’s field goal percentage is a woeful 45.3%. According to their SportVU tracking data, Thompson is saving 20.5 points per game via his rim protection, which is a pretty impressive number for a player whose never been known as a rim protector throughout his career.

As his rim protection has improved, Thompson has still been able to be effective at one of his better defensive traits and that is using his quickness for a big-man to be able to switch onto a guard in pick-and-roll situations. The Cavs use a number of different pick-and-roll defenses depending on the opponent, as you see them hedge, ICE and switch on the pick-and-roll quite often during a game. When switching, the Cavaliers can trust that Thompson will do a good job at containing the guard, as his versatility and athleticism for a big allows him to contain a guard handling the ball out of the pick-and-roll. This element of Thompson’s game is what separates him from Mozgov on the defensive end. Mozgov has statistically protected the rim better then Thompson this season but when he gets pulled out of the paint, he becomes a huge liability on the defensive end. Meanwhile, when Thompson is pulled out of the paint, he is able to become a more effective and disruptive defender.

When taking a look at how big of a difference Thompson makes on the Cavs, the numbers really do speak for themselves. Despite not being a great offensive player, as Thompson is averaging just seven points per game this season (although, he is shooting 54.0% from the field, which is just .7% off his career best and his alley-oop connection with Matthew Dellavedova has been unstoppable this season), he is still making a positive impact on the offensive end. When Thompson is on the court, the Cavs have an offensive rating of 103.7 and when he sits, that number dips to 102.9- not a huge difference but a positive impact nonetheless. On the defensive end, Thompson’s impact is much more noticeable, as Cleveland has a defensive rating 94.7 with him on the court and that numbers takes a dramatic drop to 103.9 once he sits. The Cavaliers +9 NET rating with Thompson on the court (and their -1.0 NET rating with him off) is just yet another indication of how big of an impact he has made on the Cavs so far this season.

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It is no surprise to see that Thompson is featured in the Cavs top-nine (in terms of NET rating) five-man line-ups (minimum of five games played together), as his game allows him to seemingly fit with any of the many combinations available to Blatt. Thompson starting indicates the Cavs are slowly morphing towards a small-ball play-style, as their starting line-up of Irving-James-Love-Thompson-J.R. Smith/Iman Shumpert allows them to do so many more things then with Mozgov at the center. Thompson rebounds better, defends better, plays better offense and simply has a much larger positive impact then Mozgov does in the starting line-up, which validates Blatt’s decision to make a line-up change the correct one.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats and nyloncalculus.com