Is Timofey Mozgov A Necessity for Cavs?

Last season’s trade for Timofey Mozgov helped turned the Cleveland Cavaliers’ season around. His interior presence was something that the Cavs desperately needed, as he provided the rim protection Cleveland craved. It showed in the stats, as last season, the Cavaliers defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) was 100.9 with Mozgov on the floor and when he was off the floor, that number inflated to 104.0.

Mozgov also made a considerable difference on the offensive end of the floor, as the Cavs had an excellent offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) of 111.8 with the big Russian on the floor and when he went to the bench, that number dropped to 108.1. Overall, Cleveland had a positive net rating of 11.0 with Mozgov on the court, compared to 4.1 with him off the floor.

Another interesting stat that relates to Mozgov from last season is that the Cavs actually played with a better pace while he was on the floor compared to off it. Cleveland’s pace (number of possessions per 48 minutes) was 95.87 with Mozgov on the court last season, which was the highest mark of any player who wore a Cavalier uniform last season. That number dipped to 94.31 with him off the floor.

Mozgov also averaged 1.2 blocks per game for the Cavs last season and that number increased to 1.8 per 36 minutes. Opponents also shot 5.3% below their average when guarded by Mozgov and shooting from less then 6 feet.

So, by all accounts, Mozgov was a huge positive for the Cavaliers for the second half of last season. He helped give the team a new identity and provided the Cavs with a legitimate 7 feet presence. And even though David Blatt would limit Mozgov to nine minutes in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season due to mismatches, he was still a force in the series and throughout the entire playoffs. It seemed like Cleveland had found its man in the middle, as injury issues to Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love being too small to play center forced Cleveland to chase and ultimately acquire Mozgov.

During the offseason though, Mozgov went under the knife to clean up some issues in his knee. The arthroscopic knee surgery limited Mozgov’s work in the off-season and it was clearly an issue for him heading into the season, as reported by Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:

"“My knee is not — I wish it could be like it’s not bothering me, but it is what it is,” Mozgov said. “It’s bothering me, but we’re still working on it. Not before the first game, but in the close future, we will be good. I hope so.”"

It is normal to see players struggle slightly for the first few weeks of the NBA season. Working back into rhythm and learning how to play with new teammates is an adjustment for any athlete. When returning from an off-season surgery though, it compounds these issues and makes it even more difficult for players to work back into shape and feel comfortable with their bodies.

So, while Mozgov’s struggles haven’t necessary been all that surprising this early season, the extent of these struggles has been. Mozgov simply looks like a shell of the Mozgov we all saw in Cleveland last season. The Mozgov that helped turn the Cavalier season around has morphed into a negative for the Cavs during the team’s 8-2 start to the season.

The first thing that has been tough for Mozgov is simply the minutes he has played. The Russian giant is averaging only 21.1 minutes per game this season. For comparison, back-up Thompson is averaging 25.0 minutes a game. Where the difference really comes for Mozgov though is in the fourth quarter. Out of the Cavs first 10 games, Mozgov has only played in two last quarters and in those two instances, he is averaging a tiny 5.4 minutes. On the other hand, Thompson has appeared in all 10 fourth quarters and is particular playing the entire quarter, as he averages 9.3 minutes in the last quarter. Mozgov spoke of the struggles of not playing late in games recently, as Haynes reports:

"Cleveland Cavaliers center Timofey Mozgov has only appeared in the fourth quarter once out of the team’s six games.The big man isn’t pouting. It’s all about the team’s success. He’s just staying ready for when his number is called. But why isn’t the 7-2 rim protector seeing action down the stretch of games?“You’re talking to the wrong person,” he told cleveland.com. “That’s all I can say.” “We’re the players. We want to play,” he said. “It’s not a miracle. You see Sasha [Kaun] right here. Ask him if he wants to play or no. He’s going to tell you. It’s like every guy on the team. So it’s not a secret.”"

The interesting thing about Mozgov not playing in the final quarters is that it isn’t because the Cavs are smashing teams and resting players. In fact, all of Cleveland’s games (apart from the wins against the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat) have been close to some extend in the final quarter. It isn’t because Blatt doesn’t like Mozgov. He coached him on the Russian national team and probably has one of the best relationships with him compared to anyone else on the team. The reason that Mozgov isn’t playing in the crunch time of games is that Cleveland is simply a better basketball team with Mozgov on the bench.

Mozgov’s positive impact for the Cavs on the defensive end last season has been well documented. It has been the complete opposite this season. With Mozgov on the court this season, the Cavaliers have a defensive rating of 105.7, a number that would place them 28^th in the league, tied with the tanking machine, Philadelphia 76ers. When Mozgov is sitting though, the Cavs have a defensive rating of 92.0. Yes, you read that right, 92.0. That number would place Cleveland first in the NBA. The Cavs have a better defensive rating by 13.7 with Mozgov on the bench. That is simply an astonishing stat and it highlights how much better Cleveland has been defensively without Mozgov this season.

The NBA is no longer a land of giants. The league is now fast paced and full of smaller big men. On offensive, teams are adapting a faster style of play and the speed of the game is quicker then it ever has been. This is a major reason for Mozgov’s regression on the defensive end. Big, slow and lumbering 7 plus footers are not necessarily needed in NBA defenses’ anymore. Yes, rim protection is important but having agile big men who can guard both guards on the perimeter and also bang down low is far more important.

The Cavs have one of the best switching big men in the league in Thompson. Mozgov doesn’t bring this kind of defensive versatility. And even though Mozgov is still protecting the rim at an elite rate this season, as opposition players are shooting 15.5% below their average on shots less then 6 feet with Mozgov as the primary defender, Thompson has also been a positive protecting the rim (opposition players are shooting 8.3% below their average on shots less then 6 feet with Thompson as the primary defender). So, Thomson doesn’t hurt the Cavs in the rim protection category and provides a lot more on that end then Mozgov.

It must be pointed out that Mozgov hasn’t hurt the Cavs on the offensive end this season. In fact, he has been a positive. Cleveland’s offensive rating is 105.1 with the Russian on the court and that numbers actually drops to 103.9 when he sits. Mozgov is not on the floor for scoring purposes though. That Cavs have enough offensive firepower. In fact, LeBron James has been seen being vocal on the court with his frustration with Mozgov being in the wrong spot on the floor on offense or not making the correct cut when needed. Mozgov is only averaging 8.3 points a game this season. They don’t need him to be anything special on that end. It is the defensive end of the floor where Mozgov needs to be productive for the Cavaliers and so far this season, he hasn’t been.

Cleveland is also a noticeable faster team with Mozgov off the court and Thompson on it. The Cavs pace is 94.15 with Mozgov on the court and when he sits, that number increases to 97.50. It is no surprise then, that when Thompson is on the court, the Cavs pace is 97.61 and when he is off the floor, the pace dips to 94.44. The link in these numbers is not a coincidence. Numbers don’t even need to be used, as the eye test is able to clearly indicate how much quicker the Cavs play with Thompson on the court compared to Mozgov. Instead of having a tall 7 footer lumbering up and down the floor, the Cavaliers are a considerably better basketball team with the quick and athletic Thompson running the floor.

Rebounding is Thompson’s specialty. It has been an area of disappointment for Mozgov. Thompson is averaging 9.1 rebounds a game this season, with 2.2 of them coming on the offensive glass. Mozgov is grabbing only 4.9 boards per game, 1.5 of them being offensive. Mozgov has not made the impact that a 7 footer needs to make on the glass and it is another reason why his minutes have been down, while Thompson’s are on the increase.

Where all of these numbers come even more interesting and eye opening is when you consider that Mozgov is an unrestricted free agent next summer. Cleveland’s salary cap issues have been well documented; the team will pay over $170 million is tax penalties this season. This is where the question of if Mozgov is truly a necessity for the Cavaliers becomes valid, as Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal reports that big money awaits Mozgov.

Early word in league/agent circles was that Timofey Mozgov could get max next summer. If not a max, after tonight he'll certainly come close
— Jason Lloyd (@ByJasonLloyd) October 22, 2015

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With Thompson and Love locked up and with Mozgov struggling so far, is it really necessary for the Cavs to commit even more max money to another player? Yes, Mozgov’s struggles and numbers need to be taken in with the fact that he is recovering from off-season knee surgery but that fact simply creates another problem. Thompson has the second longest consecutive-games-played in the entire NBA. Mozgov is a 7-footer with now obvious knee issues and he is also 29 years old. Thompson is only 24.

So, while Mozgov will improve as the season continues and as he gets healthy, is he a necessity for Cleveland? When looking at his low production this season, the fact that he will be expensive and that the Cavs have Thompson playing at a much better rate, the answer of that question at the moment, is no.

Do you think Timofey Mozgov is a necessary piece for the Cavs?