The NBA calendar has changed over from Christmas to Trade Season, and from now until "Stretch Run" kicks off after the February Trade Deadline, teams will be engaged in negotiations and the rest of the NBA world will be engaged in reporting and speculation.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the midst of a chaotic season, an injury-riddled 34 games of constantly churning starting lineups and equal parts letdown losses and upset victories. With the clock ticking for both Donovan Mitchell and J.B. Bickerstaff, the time is now for the Cavs to win.
Can they do so with the current group? Will the front office look to make tweaks around the edges, or will they take a bigger swing involving one of their core pieces? As the rumor mill springs into high gear and nearly every possibility creeps onto the table, which players on the roster are most likely to be traded? Who is a lock to stay put? Let's count down every player on the roster (excluding Ricky Rubio, who is in the process of agreeing to a contract buyout), starting with one All-Star point guard who isn't going anywhere.
No. 13: Darius Garland
If there is one player on the roster who is as close to a lock as humanly possible to not be traded, that player is Darius Garland. The homegrown All-Star point guard plays a crucial position, is under contract long-term, and has the skillset of a player who should continue to excel in the modern NBA.
Garland is currently out of the lineup due to a broken jaw, and he has been a magnet for a few fluke injuries over the past few seasons, but that shouldn't take away from his dynamic play when he is on the court. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Cavaliers are 6.4 points per 100 possessions better when Garland is on the court this season, an extremely strong number. At 23 years old, the Cavaliers will build whatever is to come around their playmaking point guard.
No. 12: Evan Mobley
If Darius Garland is a lock to remain with the Cavaliers, Evan Mobley is nearly there as well. The third-year big man is already one of the NBA's best defensive players, a permier shot-blocker whose versatility allows him to roam the paint, spearhead the zone or lock up on the perimeter. At just 22 years old, the roof is the ceiling for his defensive potential.
The issue for Mobley is that his offensive game hasn't developed in the ways that the coaching staff hoped. He has taken a step forward as a passer and finisher, and his rebounding is noticeably improved this season. On the other hand, he has all-but abandoned his jumper, moving nearly all of his shot attempts into the paint. That lack of spacing has made it extremely difficult for Mobley and Jarrett Allen to exist together on offense.
The Cavaliers will take the time to try every possibility to making the pairing of Mobley and Allen work, and barring that, will almost certainly look to move Allen before Mobley. The dominant play of Allen in Mobley's absense has just opened the tiniest sliver of possibility, which is why Mobley is at No. 12 instead of No. 13 on this list.
No. 11: Max Strus
One of the newest additions to the roster, Max Strus has joined the Cavaliers and done (nearly) everything they wanted him to do. He is putting strain on defenses with his permieter gravity, opening up the court for players like Jarrett Allen to dominate inside. He plays hard at both ends, has a constant motor, and has emerged as a veteran voice in the locker room.
The only thing that the Cavaliers could hope for from Strus is more accurate shooting. He is getting 3-point shots up at a solid rate, 8.3 per game, but only hitting 35.1 percent of them. If Strus could bump that number up to 39 or 40 percent the Cavs would really be cooking with fire. But given his new deal and two-way impact, it's incredibly unlikely he is included in any trade this season.
No. 10: Sam Merrill
One of the breakout players of this NBA season has been Sam Merrill, who has gone from riding the bench to riding the wave, spitting fire from the 3-point arc to the tune of 12.9 3-point attempts per 36 minutes on 43.5 percent shooting. Only two players in the league are shooting above 40 percent from deep on that kind of volume: Merrill and Stephen Curry, a mouthpiece-chewing shooter who plays out West.
In fact, broaden out the search, and the only players in the last 10 years to shoot better than 40 percent on this kind of volume are Curry and Merrill; Steph did it three times, and Merrill is there this year. Only 11 times has a player even shot 12 3-pointers per 36 minutes in that decade. What he is doing is special.
Factor in his extremely inexpensive contract this season and next, and there is absolutely no reason for the Cavs to move on from their find. Unless a team came after Merrill and valued him as a starter, the Cavs will keep him around and let him continue bombing away.
No. 9: Tristan Thompson
The veteran big man appears this early on the list not because he is untouchable; his ability to step into the rotation in Evan Mobley's absence and give the Cavaliers good minutes has been valuable, but if someone actually wanted Thompson and would provide assets for him, they would move on from their third-string center.
No one is going to do that, however, because Thompson is a limited player at a position flush with reserve options. He holds special value to the Cavs because of his veteran presence in the locker room and his history with the franchise. He'll still be around when the trade dominos fall.
No. 8: Donovan Mitchell
There has been a lot of ink spilled and breath expelled discussing the possibility of Donovan Mitchell being traded this season. Putting much stock in the Cavaliers saying they are not planning to trade Mitchell is a fool's errand; teams control the narrative on purpose, and even if they are quietly fielding trade offers, they don't want to alienate their star whom they may still hope to sign to an extension this summer.
This front office gave up a lot of assets to bring in Mitchell, and moving him for a smaller package this soon after the deal is likely a bridge too far. Unless they are absolutely bowled over by an offer, or Mitchell tells them directly that he won't sign an extension, Spida should be sticking around.
No. 7: Georges Niang
The Cavaliers signed three players this summer to boost their shooting. Max Strus has done so with his gravity and off-ball movement; even if his shots aren't falling at an elite level, he brings enough of a threat for opponents to stick to him, and that is opening up space for his teammates.
For Georges Niang, it's somewhat of a different story. After five-straight seasons of shooting at least 40 percent from 3-point range, Niang is now hitting just 33.3 percent from deep. To his credit, Niang is crashing the boards and playing with energy trying to help his team, but more so than Strus he needs to be hitting shots to make the impact necessary.
If the Cavaliers need salary to insert into a trade, it seems like Niang would be a candidate for inclusion. Given his poor shooting, however, his three-year deal may not be viewed as a clear positive, and the Cavs may prefer to keep him around until his shooting regresses positively toward his career norms.
No. 6: Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen has been absolutely dominant over the past few weeks for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Always an imposing presence inside on defense, Allen has broken out on offense, gobbling offensive rebounds and making crisp passing reads and dunking everything in sight. Allen may have been an All-Star in 2021-22, but he's having the best stretch of his career right now.
While it has helped the Cavs stay afloat without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, and it's a good problem to have, it does make his future with the team murkier. Has Allen played so well the Cavaliers will commit to keeping him around and making it work with Mobley? Has he outplayed Mobley to make the team question which big to trade? Or has Allen raised his own trade value to the point another team will pay the farm to land him?
It's a fascinating question; no player on the Cavs has a more fascinating month ahead of him for that reason.
No. 5: Dean Wade
Dean Wade gets maligned by fans, he sometimes gets buried in the rotation, and unfortunately he often is dealing with an injury. When you peel back all of those layers, however, you find a player who is a perfect fit as a role player on a contending team.
That should mean the Cavaliers keep him around; he is the perfect player to insert at power forward alongside Jarrett Allen, and his elevation into the starting lineup has paired nicely with Allen's explosion. He is under contract for two more seasons after this one at around $6, a deal they can absolutely afford to keep on the books.
At the same time, Wade is an archetype that would help any team trying to win, and that could work to the Cavs' benefit if they include him in a trade. With limited draft capital available to them, trading players with value is their best avenue to making a deal. It's not unthinkable that Wade could end up in a trade for that reason.
No. 4: Ty Jerome
Ty Jerome is one of the players on the roster most likely to be traded, but it's not through any fault of his own. Jerome was signed to a two-year deal this summer to provide guard depth as a versatile shooter and role player. Unfortunately for both Jerome and the Cavs, he suffered an ankle injury in the second game of the season and has not played since.
The Cavs have to move forward as if Jerome is not a player they can rely on, and the rise of Craig Porter Jr. has put them in a position to do so. That makes Jerome a prime candidate to be tossed into a trade to make the money work, and a team with the flexibility to deal for him could get a solid rotation guard late this season or next once Jerome is healthy and available.
No. 3: Damian Jones
The Cavaliers' most baffling move of the offseason was trading for Damian Jones. The journeyman center had a decent defensive season for the Utah Jazz last year, but the Cavs needed a center who brought something unique to the table and Jones was simply a much-worse version of who they already had in the building.
That has born out this year, as Jones was terrible in relief of Jarrett Allen to start the year and quickly lost his place in the rotation Tristan Thompson, who was working for ESPN on a studio show this time a year ago. If the Cavs need to clear a roster spot or inch closer to match salary on a deal, moving Jones and his minimum deal will be an easy decision. The only reason he is not No. 1 is that he has no value around the league.
No. 2: Caris LeVert
We come to the top two names on the list, and there is a definitive tier break for these two and the rest of the roster. If the Cavaliers are looking to thread the needle where they make a real rotation upgrade but without moving one of their full-strength starters, moving Caris LeVert or Isaac Okoro is their best (potentially only) avenue to accomplishing that.
LeVert has played an important role on the Cavaliers over the past few seasons, running the bench unit and stepping up to fill in for one of the two guards when they are absent. At full strength, however, his role is much more limited. If the Cavs are trying to improve their ceiling rather than protecting their floor, moving LeVert makes a lot of sense.
A talented on-ball scorer, playmaker and solid defender, LeVert should have value to a number of teams. He is also on a two-year deal worth $32 million, short enough not to scare off teams but worth enough to bring back a solid number in matching salary. He's worth something to the Cavs, but he may be worth more to another team, which is one of the best starting places for a trade.
No. 1: Isaac Okoro
To his credit, Isaac Okoro never stops grinding and trying to get better. He is one of the more underrated defenders in the league, a true on-ball problem for opposing ball-handlers and a passing-lane savant. On offense he continues to put in the reps to improve his 3-point shot, but he will likely never get to the point where defenders respect him enough not to double one of the Cavs' star guards.
That was the problem in last year's playoffs, and it's why the Cavs are likely headed to a break-up this summer when Okoro hits restricted free agency. If the Cavs can find a trade suitor who values having Okoro's restricted rights, therefore, he is a prime candidate to be traded.
There will be young teams looking to buy-low on a defensive difference-maker, or winning teams that need a defensive specialist to deploy even this season. The Cavs have played Okoro recently because the Mobley injury opens up spacing on the court, but he is limited to a small role when both Mobley and Allen are healthy. There is a strong chance another team values him more than that, and that's why he is the most likely member of the Cleveland Cavaliers to be traded this season.