This season hasn't gone the way that the Cleveland Cavaliers expected; it likely wasn't even on their bingo board altogether. Nonstop injuries eating away at their rotation and ultimately taking two of their stars off the court for weeks on end? That wasn't in the cards.
Not having their entire team on the court turns hard questions into impossible ones. This was the year when the Cavaliers, fresh off spending in free agency to add shooting at multiple positions, were supposed to take another step forward. If they didn't, then the stumbling block was supposed to be identified and removed.
Now the Cavs have to make that analysis without seeing the data. Would they have taken that step forward if they hadn't been so injured? Perhaps, but perhaps not. With key players marching ever-closer to the ends of their contracts, the pressure on this season continues to increase even as the Cavaliers' ability to release it diminishes.
Which questions do the Cavaliers need to answer?
Some questions will need immediate answers, such as what they do with Ricky Rubio's contract and whether to guarantee the contracts of Sam Merrill and Tristan Thompson. Those are simple enough to make even in the midst of chaos.
The larger questions, however, are both significantly more important and substantially more difficult to answer this year. Even so, the Cavaliers have to answer them or hope punting them to later in the year or next season doesn't prove to be a massive mistake. Even not deciding is a decision.
With that stressful context in place, let's look at three impossibly hard questions that the Cleveland Cavaliers need to answer.
Hard Question No. 1: Can they burn another postseason on J.B. Bickerstaff?
The Cleveland Cavaliers were facing a steep fall into a bleak canyon after Evan Mobley and Darius Garland were revealed to be undergoing surgeries that would keep them off the court for an extended period of time. Instead, they have won three of four games, two of those victories without Donovan Mitchell.
Credit the players, absolutely, but also give a healthy serving of credit to head coach J.B. Bickerstaff. He has always been an effective motivator, he coaches up players to survive on defensively (if not excel) and is the perfect coach to take a short-handed roster and help them scrap to victories.
The problem is that this stretch of basketball cobbling together wins from a less-talented group does nothing to test Bickerstaff's ability to coach in the playoffs. His work over the past few seasons proves he can raise the floor of a team; can he also raise their ceiling on the toughest stage?
The wins the Cavs scrape together during the next few weeks may be what lifts them into the playoffs, but can they afford to go into that battle with Bickerstaff at thje helm? He was outclassed in last year's playoffs by Tom Thibodeau, hardly the champion of playoff adjustments. The organization outwardly seemed to declare that it was the roster deficiencies and lack of shooting that did the Cavs in, not their coach's inability to press the right buttons.
Making that declaration and keeping Bickerstaff last summer was a decision, but it also came with months of data on whether BNickerstaff could make this group sing in the regular season. He hasn't been able to do that, so the front office has no further data. They have to make their bet, with the risk another lost postseason and a superstar who may want out if they don't win a round this year.
Speaking of...
Hard Question No. 2: How long do they hold onto Donovan Mitchell?
The Cleveland Cavaliers made a massive swing 16 months ago, trading for Utah Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell. They spent five drafts worth of picks plus multiple talented players because they saw an upside with Mitchell leading the way, and their downside was mitigated by Darius Garland and Evan Mobley being young and under contract for a long time.
Despite the fluke injuries, the floor is there as Mobley and Garland continue to improve. The problem is that the upside hasn't yet been realized; Cleveland won 51 games last year but, as was previously mentioned, was punked right out of the playoffs. Now they're barreling toward another postseason where the Cavs shouldn't expect to be favored in a first-round series.
There are a myriad of voices calling for the Cavaliers to trade Mitchell now, to maximzie his value on the trade market and take advantage of a weak market to make Mitchell the prize player for teams to pursue. The Cavs have been adamant that they aren't moving Mitchell this season...so when will they be open to it?
If Mitchell comes to the team and tells them he isn't re-signing, that will make this decision for them. What if he doesn't? Will the Cavaliers trade him this summer, especially if this season ends up lost because of the injury absences? Do they risk him walking for nothing simply to take one last crack at the playoffs with no track record to support a dream of contention?
If the Cavaliers won't trade Mitchell next summer, then they're barreling toward a franchise disaster. If they know that they will, then do they really think something will happen this season to change the calculus? Every report has been that Mitchell won't re-sign in Cleveland; shouldn't the Cavs maximize the return if they know he isn't sticking around?
It's a difficult question, and the Cavs have been robbed of the information to make it properly.
Hard Question No. 3: Is it time to break up Mobley and Allen?
The best version of the Cleveland Cavaliers' defense puts Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the court together. In 637 such possessions this season the Cavs have held opponents to just 105.6 points per 100 possessions, in the 98th percentile leaguewide (per Cleaning the Glass). Allen's rim protection and Mobley's wide-ranging impact shut down the paint.
The problem is that those lineups are also scoring just 109.3 points per 100 possessions (i.e. they have an offensive rating of 109.3), in the 16th percentile leaguewide. Even with Max Strus providing spacing in the starting lineup this season, the fact that neither Mobley nor Allen space the court at all strangles their offense.
Since Mobley and Darius Garland went down to injury, the Cavaliers have largely played lineups with a shooter at power forward, be that Dean Wade, Georges Niang or even Max Strus sliding down to the 4. In those four games the Cavs have scored 122.6 points per 100 possessions, top-5 in the NBA over that span. By contrast, for the entire season they have an offensive rating of just 113.8.
To get more data on whether Mobley and Allen can succeed together offensively, the Cavaliers have to wait until past the NBA Trade Deadline. To get more data on their playoff viability, they'll need to wait for the postseason and punt any decision to next offseason.
No other team is trying to do what the Cavaliers are attempting. The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing two centers, but one of them shoots 42.1 percent from 3-point range on solid volume. The Cavs are trying to creatively work around the fact that in a modern NBA that prioritizes shooting and lineup versatility, the Cavaliers are locked into playing significant minutes with two non-shooting centers.
Could the Cavaliers really trade Jarrett Allen in the midst of a Mobley injury absence? On the other hand, can they afford not to? Perhaps the team believes that the two can find their stride. Perhaps they are working a leverage game to get the best trade offer. Perhaps they're irrationally considering trading Evan Mobley instead.
This is a difficult question, and one that will have far-reaching effects, both for the Cavaliers and the league as a whole. Can the two-big lineup work? Is defense truly just as important than offense? The answers will go a long way towards dictating the path forward for Cleveland. Does that path include trading a franchise stalwart?