The Eastern Conference is in the midst of an extremely tight playoff race. With only a few days left in the regular season, there is only a five-game difference between the second seed and the eighth seed. Though the Cleveland Cavaliers seemingly had the second seed locked up earlier in the year, they are now in the midst of the messy season finale.
The Milwaukee Bucks sit at second with a 49-31 record, and the Miami Heat with a record of 44-36 are fighting to break away from the eight seed. The Cavaliers currently sit at the fourth seed with a record of 47-33, one game ahead of the fifth-seed Orlando Magic. With all of this congestion, the Cavaliers could end up with home court advantage in the first round, or they could end up in the play-in tournament and no guaranteed spot in the playoffs. These potential major shifts in seeding have Cavs with many different potential first round matchups.
As always, the likelihood to win an NBA playoff series is not just the better team outright. Matchups, strategies and health luck can sway the momentum in one team's favor more than the other throughout the seven-game series. Let’s dive into what teams the Cavaliers should and should not want to see.
The Cavaliers should target the Indiana Pacers
The Cavaliers should welcome a matchup with the Indiana Pacers. Currently, the Pacers have the sixth seed and are losing a tie-breaker with the fifth seed Orlando Magic. Considering the circumstances, it is very possible the Cavaliers could play the Pacers in the first round either as the four-five or three-six matchup if either team climbs up the standings while the other stays put.
This would be a good matchup for the Cavaliers due to the Indiana Pacers youth and lack of playoff experience. This iteration of the Pacers has not played in the playoffs yet, lending the Cavs to be in a similar position to the New York Knicks last year when Cleveland lost. Last season, Indy finished 11th in the East, missing the Play-In Tournament and postseason all together. It is always good to go against a young and inexperienced team in the postseason to build momentum going into the conference semifinals.
Teams rarely make it far in the playoffs in their first run. This was on full display last year in the Cavs and Knicks series. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and many other Cavs hadn’t played in the playoffs yet, and the Knicks feasted on our inexperience and raised the intensity to levels the young Cavaliers struggled to match.
The Indiana Pacers personnel is nothing to fear, either. Their lone All-Star Tyrese Haliburton is only 24 years old and has no postseason experience under his belt. Their leading scorer, Pascal Siakam, is a former All-Star and NBA Champion. He was traded to the Pacers midseason, giving him limited time to find chemistry with his new teammates. Benedict Mathurin, their fourth-highest leading scorer, is also injured for the rest of the season.
For the Cavaliers squad hoping to rebuild their reputation after last year's embarrassment, the Pacers offer a favorable matchup for the first round.
Cleveland should avoid the Miami Heat just like everyone else
The Miami Heat are currently in the eight seed with a record of 44-36. With every team so close together in the seeding, there are still multiple scenarios where the Cavs could meet the Heat, including in the Play-In Tournament.
As displayed over the last few seasons, Miami is a team that everyone in the East should fear. Last year the Heat looked like a mediocre team with a limited offense. They had to win in the Play-In Tournament just to make the playoffs. But, then they showed their true ceiling. Miami would go on to upset the one-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and advance all the way to the NBA Finals. Their best player and leader, Jimmy Butler, seems to have moved to a stage in his career where he takes it easier in the regular season before shifting to another gear in the playoffs.
Last year Butler only averaged 22.9 points a game in the regular season. He then elevated that number to 26.9 in the postseason. Jimmy’s playoff gear along with having one of the best coaches in the NBA Erik Spoelstra makes their playoff seeding very misleading and creating problematic first round matchups.
Last summer, the Cavaliers brought Max Strus to the Land from Miami via sign-and-trade, bolstering their wing depth and building upon the culture and hustle the Heat instilled in Strus. If Cleveland hopes to overthrow the reigning conference champs, they will have to lean on their depth and defensive mentality to throw the Heat off their game. Otherwise, they could be facing another quick spring exit.
The Cavs would be favorites against the Orlando Magic
Currently the Orlando Magic have the fifth seed with a record of 46-34. If the playoffs started today, the Cavs would be matched up with the Magic, and the Cavaliers having home court advantage. This could very well be the first round matchup and Cavalier fans should be hoping for it.
Much like the Indiana Pacers, the Orlando Magic make for a good playoff opponent due to their youth and playoff inexperience. Last year the Orlando Magic finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, not even playing in the Play-In Tournament.
They have a lot of young talent and are an elite defensive team. Their defense gave the Cavs some fits during the regular season, and the Magic were able to beat the Cavaliers two times this regular season campaign. Still, looking at the age of their best players makes them an appealing first round matchup. At 21 years old, Paolo Banchero leads the Magic in scoring in his second season with 22.5 poins pegame. Their next two top scorers, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, are only 22 years old each. If Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers can find an offensive rhythm and overcome the Magic’s tough defense, the Cavaliers should be able to defeat this up-and coming-Magic team.
Most of Cleveland's core is still relatively young themselves, but their veteran leadership and recent playoff experience can give them the edge on Orlando. If the Cavs hope to win, though, they will need to prioritize maintaining their intensity in the face of hard contact. The Magic have a similar physical approach to the Knicks, meaning Cleveland will have to show they have learned from their past mistakes. The Cavaliers must emphasize grit on the boards, not allowing extra offensive rebounds and possessions.
The Philadelphia 76ers would be a tough match for the Cavaliers
The Philadelphia 76ers are currently the seventh seed with a record of 45-35, but they have won six games in a row since Joel Embiid's return and could end the season with a higher seed. This is another opponent the Cavaliers have a decent likelihood of playing in the first round.
The 76ers are definitely not a team the Cavaliers would want to see early in the playoffs. The 76ers were a high seed before losing Joel Embiid to a torn meniscus in his left knee. However, Joel Embiid is back just in time for the playoffs and has already had some good performances early in his return.
Playing the 2023 NBA MVP in the first round is something the Cavaliers would like to avoid. With so many injuries this season, the Cavs would not cheer for a star-studded roster such as Philly. On top of that, the likely Most Improved Player Tyrese Maxey is having a fantastic season averaging 25.9 points and 6.3 assists per game. Embiid and Maxey could give the Cavaliers some serious problems on the defensive end.
The Sixers are not an impossible opponent for the Cavaliers, but they pose a legitimate threat to cut Cleveland's run short. Embiid is looking better than ever at the tail end of a historic season hampered by injuries. Cleveland will be pushed to their limits by Philly, likely pushing the series to six or seven games if the Cavaliers pull through. This would leave the Cavs burnt out by the time they reach the next round as they likely face a true contender in the East.
Overall, the Cleveland Cavaliers enter this postseason with more hope and ability win than the last. Everything will be proven on the hardwood. Any team can be a theoretical good or bad matchup, but the Cavs will control their own destiny. With an MVP-caliber star in Donovan Mitchell leading the way, Cleveland has all the tools to make a deep run if they can consistent match their opponent's intensity.