This summer, the Cleveland Cavaliers reshaped the bench rotation to address a lack of playmaking and size in the backcourt.
Trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland added veteran point guard Lonzo Ball to the ranks. Ball's proven role as a versatile defender and crafty playmaker presented a new look for the Cavs' backcourt depth chart.
Unfortunately, the Lonzo gamble hasn't paid off for Cleveland as much as expected. In the offseason, a select few viewed the Ball deal as the Cavs' equivalent to last year's Oklahoma City Thunder trade for Alex Caruso. Adding a tough, do-it-all role player to an aspiring contender can be the final ingredient for a championship run. Instead, in Lonzo's case, it's backfired to the point that he may be viewed only as an expiring $10 million salary.
The latest intel from Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton of ESPN solidify this underwhelming reality. Detailing one player for all 30 NBA franchises who could be on the move at the deadline, Ball was the go-to name for the Cavaliers.
"Although Ball has not suffered any setbacks with his left knee, his production has been inconsistent. Ball averaged at least 22 minutes in the first three months of the season, but he has seen his minutes per game drop to 13.0 in January. Ball is shooting a career-worst 31.2% from the field and 27.6% on 3s."Bobby Marks
Recently, Lonzo has started to turn things around. He has shot 41.7 percent from three-point range in his last 10 appearances and has dished out an average of 2 assists per game in a depleted role. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has been more selective in his usage of Lonzo, handing out DNPs on nights when his fit doesn't match what the team needs.
Though Lonzo has been recovering his value, the Cavs and other teams may see his best value as an expiring deal on the trade market.
Trading Lonzo could save the Cavaliers... big time
Beyond the court, Lonzo is a financial question mark for Cleveland. With a team option this summer, the Cavs could drop his $10 million salary and inch closer to leaving the luxury tax's daunting second apron. That approach does not change the fact the Cavaliers are $22 million over that threshold this season and will face steep financial penalties for it.
As Marks notes, the Cavaliers currently owe $164 million in luxury taxes, paid for by owner Dan Gilbert. While Gilbert has been unafraid of the luxury tax in the past when the Cavs are competing for the Finals, Ball's diminishing role and his expiring deal could alleviate a hefty chunk of that tax this season.
Trading Lonzo for nothing, or next to nothing, in return could bring Cleveland's luxury tax bill down to as low as $102 million, according to Marks. Suddenly, Lonzo's $10 million becomes $60 million in financial relief if he is traded by the February 5 deadline. Otherwise, the Cavs' $164 million fate is sealed, and navigating the second apron becomes a summertime problem.
Trading Lonzo might cost the Cavaliers
That $102 million number only gets met if the Cavaliers can trade Lonzo without bringing salary back, which greatly limits the number of teams who can afford to add that salary to their books and would want to do it. As a second-apron team, the Cavs cannot attach Lonzo with another player in a bigger deal.
Convincing an opposing team to absorb $10 million this season would almost definitely mean the Cavaliers are compensating that team with draft picks. The Cavs have no control over their first-round picks for the rest of the decade, and they have few second-round picks left to offer.
Trading Lonzo for nothing may create bigger problems than it solves. The perfect, too-good-to-say-no scenario only arrives if the Cavs find a trade partner who desperately wants a low-risk solution at point guard. Despite his struggles this season, Lonzo is still a premier defensive guard with much to offer as an offensive engine. Even without scoring in volume, Ball is still liable to dish out some jaw-dropping assists in which he seemingly knows his teammate is open before they know themselves.
Ball is in the NBA still for a reason, even with many injury setbacks. The Association is not a forgiving sport and has moved on from talented players for less. Lonzo is not done in the league, and other teams could certainly see his value.
If a perfect, must-have trade does not materialize, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the latter half of the season to recoup his value and see if he can find traction ahead of the playoffs. Otherwise, the Cavs have found a gold mine in Craig Porter, Jr.'s recent rise to prominence as a shorter version of exactly what Lonzo was meant to be.