The NBA season is about to begin, and that means it’s time for some predictions. Where will each team finish in the standings? Let’s roll out our predictions alongside our very first edition of our NBA Power Rankings: how many wins will each team have by the time the regular season ends?
Note that this is not a ranking of how strong each team will be in the playoffs, or how likely each team is to win the title. It’s simply all 30 teams ordered by my projections for their final record, factoring in team quality, health, potential moves and external incentives. We start at the bottom with a team finally embracing a rebuild.
The Wizards hope to be the worst team in the league as they need high-end talent in the worst way. That will mean a lot of Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma shots and not a lot of defense. Keep an eye on the development of Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert at the forward spots, and expect them to trade a few veteran point guards by the deadline.
In terms of pure talent on the roster, the Trail Blazers as currently constituted are a better team than 25 wins suggests. Their momentum is to gain as high of a draft pick as possible to pair a forward with Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Deandre Ayton. Veterans from Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant to Robert Williams III and even Anfernee Simons could be moved during the year.
Cade Cunningham is going to have a bounce-back season and is my pick to win Most Improved Player, but the primary pieces of this roster are young and raw. Add in a packed frontcourt of bigs that should all be playing center and you get a team that isn’t quite ready for the big step forward.
Victor Wembanyama is a teenager entering the league from playing in France and should need time to fill out his frame and adjust to NBA basketball. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, that may not slow him down any. He has looked amazing in the preseason and could elevate the Spurs right past this win total. On the other hand, the Spurs had a historically bad defense last season and won just 22 games, so 10 wins is already a major step forward. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan could one day soon be starters on the next great Spurs team.
The Houston Rockets were quite bad last season, but they aggressively added talent this summer. Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale should all be rotation upgrades, not to mention growth from players like Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. It’s not yet clear how this will all fit together, but the veterans plus the defensive identity of a proven coach like Ime Udoka should push them up the standings from last year’s finish, even if the playoffs are likely a bridge too far.
The return of LaMelo Ball for a full season should be a boost, but the return of Miles Bridges seems to have been cut short by his own lack of self-control. Mark Williams looks like a long-term starter at center, but how Steve Clifford configures the middle of the lineup will likely decide how high this team climbs. Look for this team to run a lot and then run some more to take advantage of their one offensive advantage.
The jump for the Orlando Magic is coming, but it will be next year. Their two best players are forwards and they don’t have a guard who shoots from outside, which will constrict the offense into the five worst in the league. Their defense should be solid and they have a lot of intriguing young players, but they need either one of those guards to make the leap or they need to add an offensive difference-maker next offseason. One important question: is Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero the future No. 1 option for this team?
The Utah Jazz didn’t properly execute their tank last season, in large part because the players they got back in the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades were ready to contribute immediately: Walker Kessler looks like a future Defensive Player of the Year and Lauri Markkanen was an All-Star. They’ll stay near the bottom by giving a lot of minutes to first-and-second-year players and trying to rehabilitate the career of John Collins.
Tyrese Haliburton is the real deal, and after adding Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown this team should be running up-and-down the court. Can Myles Turner anchor an above-average defense? And where does Buddy Hield end up? The Pacers seem too good to tank but lack that second star to pair with Haliburton; they’ll hope Bennedict Mathurin can become that guy.
The Chicago Bulls were healthy and lucky last season, and that translates to a drop in wins this year. There is potential for a greater drop if they come to their sense and break this inadequate core up, but if they don’t it will be more midrange jumpers and frenetic defense trying to keep them in the Play-In Tournament. DeMar DeRozan will have to drop off at some point; will someone like Coby White or Patrick Williams be ready to step up?
The Brooklyn Nets have a title-contending team if you add a top-15 player. Mikal Bridges took a step forward to fringe All-Star level as a shot-creator while remaining durable and elite on defense. Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale and Cam Johnson are all two-way forwards. Nic Claxton is an All-Defense candidate. Without their own draft picks for the next half-decade, there is no reason to tank, so they will win as much as they can with this group and almost certainly land in the Play-In Tournament.
Luka Doncic is a top-7 player in the world at worst, and Kyrie Irving is one of the most gifted offensive players in the league. After that, however, the talent level drops off quickly to fringe starters and upside youngsters. If Kyrie isn’t 100 percent reliable this season (shocking, of course) this could fall apart very quickly.
The Oklahoma City Thunder made a big leap up the standings last season, but a tougher Western Conference may keep them right around the same level as before (or they could win 50 games – it would be unsurprising). This is more of a nod to the plexiglass principle (teams that make a big leap one season tend to fall back to earth the next) than a lack of confidence in this core. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate star, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have mammoth upside and they have a super sharp coach. They probably host a playoff series in 2024-25.
Last season the Toronto Raptors were anything but exciting, but they did go 41-41 with the point differential of a 44-win team. Losing Fred VanVleet is noticeable, but they also will have a full season of Jakob Poeltl and additions in Dennis Schroder and Jalen McDaniels, not to mention a new head coach in Darko Rajaković. Their first-round pick is due to the San Antonio Spurs with a top-6 protection, so they won’t be incentivized to lose down the stretch. They seem on track to finish above .500 despite their offensive issues and lack of a team direction.
Two seasons ago the Atlanta Hawks were in the Eastern Conference Finals, but in two seasons since they have floundered at the bottom of the playoff picture. Can new head coach Quin Snyder help lift them out of the dregs? To do so, he’ll need to find a way to maximize Trae Young while bringing along young talent to be ready for the playoffs.
The Kings were the feel-good story of the league last season, putting together the best offense in NBA history and leaping all the way up to the No. 3 seed. They fall back just six wins but also six places in the standings. They were historically healthy last season and that will likely not repeat, and this team’s high-octane engine won’t purr once you start inserting backups into the equation.
If someone from the future traveled back in time to tell me that the New Orleans Pelicans were mostly healthy this season, I would say two things. First: “You used a time machine just to tell me that?” Second: I predict that the Pelicans will win 50 games. Zion Williamson is an undeniable force, their young players have a ton of upside and when healthy this team has played at that pace. Unfortunately, expecting the Pelicans to stay healthy is probably a losing bet.
Speaking of staying healthy…Kawhi Leonard and Paul George appear healthy heading into the season, and the ceiling of this team remains a title contender. Trading for James Harden likely diminishes that ceiling but raises the floor for the 10-50 games this year the Clippers will be without one or the other.
The New York Knicks impressively knocked around the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs last season, but they have some very real team construction issues this season. They have just two rotation forwards in RJ Barrett and Julius Randle and a hose of shooting guards that will be asked to play up as 3s and 4s. That may work, but it may also come back to bite them if Barrett or Randle miss time.
LeBron James is miraculously still a Top 10 player (if barely) and is also the oldest player in the league, a seemingly impossible pairing of facts. Anthony Davis was the best defensive player in the playoffs last year. The team around them makes sense, including Austin Reaves as the improbable third banana. They will have injuries and need rest during the regular season, but if they hit the playoffs healthy they are a legitimate title contender.
The Miami Heat finished last season with 44 wins but with the point differential of a 40-win team. They also finished last season in the NBA Finals after knocking off the top two seeds in the East. The answer for how good the Heat are is probably somewhere in the middle, so we land at 47 wins. They’ll probably pluck another player or two out of obscurity and be right back in the Conference Finals.
Joel Embiid won MVP last season but his running mate is trying desperately to jump ship. How the James Harden situation resolves will dictate if the Sixers are a team that can win a playoff series or not, but even with him they aren’t a true title contender. Tyrese Maxey is poised for a breakout, but the bench is as weak as it’s ever been.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the teams most likely to take a step forward, especially among teams that made the playoffs last season. That’s not necessarily a major endorsement of their playoff chances, but rather that they will be a better regular-season team. Karl-Anthony Towns enters the year healthy, Rudy Gobert should be more comfortable in the system, Mike Conley is here from the start of the season, and both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are poised to take major steps forward.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the mirror image of a team like the Warriors or Lakers in that they profile to win a lot of regular season games thanks to a young and deep team but have fewer answers in the playoffs. Swapping Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks for Marcus Smart is a bold move; will it help them find a way to get past the Currys and LeBrons in the West? The Ja Morant suspension to start the season shouldn’t depress their win total too much, but they need him on the straight and narrow moving forward.
The Golden State Warriors have an aging core, even more so after trading Jordan Poole for Chris Paul this summer. They also have young talent ready to break out, from Jonathan Kuminga to Moses Moody, and Paul could be the answer to their second-unit woes. Doubt the ability of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the playoffs at your own peril, but they’ll have to manage rest and injuries during the regular season.
The Milwaukee Bucks have the league’s best pairing, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard a perfect fit. If they can figure out the rest of the rotation by the playoffs they could easily be the title favorites because of the strength of that two-man game. The problems stem from the age of their primary players and the unproven nature of the youngsters backing them up. If Khris Middleton is fully healthy they will be hard to beat when it counts.
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker is a positively lethal pairing, but add in Bradley Beal and you start to get diminishing returns. All three players are prone to miss 15+ games in a season, which is a problem when you have a roster as thin as the Suns, with mostly minimum players surrounding the big three. The trade to swap Deandre Ayton for depth may prove helpful, but it’s undeniable that they are less talented now.
The defending champions should probably still be the title favorites, especially since they only have to play a maximum of one of Boston and Milwaukee in the playoffs. Nikola Jokic is the best player on the planet and Jamal Murray should finally notch his first All-Star appearance. They have really thinned their depth, however, and will need at least two of their five young, relatively late picks to step up.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are built to dominate the regular season. They have an absolutely elite defense, led by budding star Evan Mobley and the rock-solid Jarrett Allen. They have one of the league’s best backcourts (perhaps the best) in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. In between they now have plenty of shooting by adding Max Strus and Georges Niang. They still need to prove themselves in the playoffs, but they’re set up to push for the top record in the league.
The Boston Celtics had the league’s best net rating last season and may be even better this time around. They are much thinner but their star power is tremendous and fits together extremely well, and they still have ammunition to acquire some big depth by the deadline. Jayson Tatum is set up to push for an MVP and he’ll have Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis joining Jaylen Brown as his running mates. Top-100 snub Derrick White and Al Horford round out the best Top-6 in the league.
There you have it – win projections for all 30 teams. Did they line up with your list?