The Cleveland Cavaliers had a good season in 2021-22, doubling their win total from a season before and finishing eighth in the Eastern Conference before losing in the Play-In Tournament to just barely miss the playoffs. Rookie Evan Mobley was an immediate impact player, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen were All-Stars, and the arrow was pointing up for the Cavs for the first time since LeBron James left (err, again).
The front office decided that core group was good enough to push their chips into the middle of the table, sending control of five first-round picks, Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton and the recently-drafted Ochai Agbaji to the Utah Jazz for All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell.
The result was a career year from Mitchell, including a franchise-record 71 points in a single game, and another step forward for the team. They won 51 games, finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference and with the second-best net rating in the league. Their playoff debut was less exciting as the New York Knicks knocked them out in just five games.
Part of evaluating any trade is to look into the unknown and consider what not making the deal would have looked like. The Cavaliers won 51 games and are in the mix at the top of the East heading into this season; where might they have been if they didn’t make the move for Mitchell and instead went into last season with Markkanen, Sexton and Agbaji?
Let’s take a closer look at this “What If” and ask the question: would the Cavaliers have been a better team if they didn’t make the trade?
The Cleveland Cavaliers surprised the NBA world by leaning into their height in a league that was still prioritizing small-ball, starting three seven-footers in Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Lauri Markkanen. The success of that group was part of the reason the league is growing in its understanding of the value of “skill” over “small” in its best lineups.
It’s likely that group would have continued to start, with reigning All-Star point guard Darius Garland in the backcourt. Caris LeVert probably would get the nod at the 2, but Isaac Okoro would be another candidate, as would Collin Sexton.
Sexton was a starter before he went down with a knee injury early in the 2021-22 season, but the team had clearly decided he wasn’t a part of its long-term core moving forward. They probably re-sign him if the Mitchell trade never happens, but to a lower number than he ultimately got to be a “Sixth Man” off the bench; judging by his up-and-down season with the Jazz last year coming off of that knee injury, it’s unlikely the Cavs would ever give him a full-minute starting role if they hadn’t made the Mitchell trade.
That gives the Cavs a backcourt rotation of Garland, Ricky Rubio, Sexton, Okoro, rookie Ochai Agbaji and LeVert. Dean Wade, Cedi Osman and Lamar Stevens were the frontcourt depth, with Robin Lopez and Mamadi Diakite as center options. That’s an incredibly deep team, and it doesn’t even grapple with the reality that a Cleveland team with all of its draft picks still available could have made a trade for a two-way rotation player, be that Jae Crowder, Gary Harris or Royce O’Neale.
Donovan Mitchell likely ends up on the New York Knicks in this scenario, with the Jazz being a much worse team without All-Star Lauri Markkanen propelling them forward. The Cavs would be deeper but without the All-NBA Donovan Mitchell in the lineup. Does that make them a better or worse team?
When looking back at the Donovan Mitchell trade, there is a common refrain that Lauri Markkanen would not have taken the step forward that he did if he had stayed in Cleveland. There is some truth to that, as Jazz head coach Will Hardy installed an offensive system that played to Markkanen’s strengths. Markkanen went from averaging 14.8 points per game with Cleveland to 25.6 points per game with Utah.
Yet to say that Markkanen doesn’t take a step forward with the Cavs is an overcorrection. He took a personal step forward over the offseason even before he was traded, looking like a star with the Finland National Team in EuroBasket. He probably would have been fully installed as the Cavs’ second option on offense over the summer and went into this past season with more of an offensive role.
Without Mitchell on the team Garland also likely takes a statistical step forward that he was unable to take this past year. In the real timeline, Garland spent the 2022-23 season improving as a complementary player; in this timeline, he has the reigns to the offense and repeats as an All-Star on a higher volume of shots.
The defense is likely just as good, if not better, if the Mitchell deal never happened. The ceiling of the offense is likely capped a bit, but there would have been room for both Garland and Markkanen to thrive. They also wouldn’t have traded away their two best movement shooters, a problem that stifled them at times this year. It’s very possible that they put up a similar season in terms of team wins and final place in the standings.
Heading into this past offseason, then, the Cavaliers would have had their full complement of draft picks moving forward and a more valuable Lauri Markkanen. They could use those picks judiciously to add rotation depth, or they could have still made an all-in trade with better negotiating strength, either using Markkanen as the centerpiece of a deal or being comfortable moving Jarrett Allen for a wing.
No one saw this breakout coming from Lauri Markkanen, but you don’t need the benefit of hindsight to have seen that the Cavs were committing to a very small backcourt and spending all of their assets to do that. Not making the trade is an unknown, but there’s a very real chance they’re in a better position today if they never made the deal.