NBA head coaches are under a lot of pressure to perform each and every year. Firing a coach costs a team nothing but cash, making it far easier to move on from a coach than a player. Each year that comes into stark reality for a number of coaches; eight teams fired their coaches since this time last year, or nine if we count Joe Mazzula replacing Ime Udoka.
To track which coaches are on the hot seat heading into any given season, we invented the “Seat Index.” This metric measures the heat of every seat in the NBA, identifying which coaches need to be wary of being fired if they don’t perform up to expectations.
Some coaches are quite comfortable – Mark Daigneault, for example, or Mike Brown. Some were just hired and there hasn’t been time for the seat to warm up; none of the first-year coaches make this list. Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra have cushy chairs with air conditioning built in. After winning the title, Michael Malone enters on a throne of ice.
Which NBA head coaches are on the hot seat this season?
There are nine NBA head coaches who seem to be in real danger of being fired if they don’t perform this season. Coaches can always play their way onto or off of this list, but these nine are who we have in mind at this point.
Let’s go through eight of those coaches and order them from a lukewarm chair to a white-hot seat, and then discuss the Cleveland Cavaliers’ own head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who is certainly not enjoying posterior ventilation heading into the season.
Tom Thibodeau’s Seat Index: Not entirely comfortable
Some NBA head coaches are feeling their hindquarters warm up because they are losing, but sometimes the problem is early success setting expectations too high to meet. That could be the case for Tom Thibodeau, who led the New York Knicks to the second round of the playoffs last year.
If the Knicks stumble this year, either due to a key injury or to regression from Julius Randle as the team’s second star, it’s possible some of the blame gets redirected to Thibs. He is known for wearing out his welcome on teams after a few years, and if the players stop responding to his gruff demeanor he could be sacrificed on the altar of a better tactical coach in the name of playoff success.
Chauncey Billups’ Seat Index: Toasty Tushie
If Thibs’ seat is warming up due to setting high expectations, Chauncey Billups’ seat is heating up for the opposite reason. Billups has done nothing but lower expectations every step of the way in Portland, from the bungling of his introductory press conference to a pair of losing seasons that wasted a chunk of Damian Lillard’s prime. He has shown very little to suggest he is an above-average NBA head coach.
The reason why Billups’ butt isn’t blazing is that the Trail Blazers’ expectations for this season are low to begin with. They are almost certainly entering a rebuild, and that lack of pressure could allow him to stick around for another year or two. Long-term, however, it seems fait accompli that Billups will be fired before Portland starts trying to win again.
Steve Clifford’s Seat Index: Heated Heinie
Back for his second stint in Charlotte, Steve Clifford is a known commodity as an NBA head coach. He is going to elevate the defense, clean up the sloppy mistakes, and field a professional team with a high floor and low ceiling. When you factor in the sloppy front office work for this team across the last half-decade, you get a roster not ready to compete but an organization that doesn’t realize that.
With new ownership coming in, expect the Hornets to clean house next summer. Largely through no fault of his own, that probably means Clifford’s heinie only gets hotter as the season goes on.
Joe Mazzulla’s Seat Index: Sweaty Shamrock
Joe Mazzulla wasn’t even supposed to be in the seat; he was going to work his way up the bench behind head coach Ime Udoka and one day get a chance to interview for head coaching jobs. Then Chip Hardy left for Utah just before Udoka was suspended by the Celtics organization, elevating Mazzulla to head coach just before the season began.
That was not a fair situation for anyone to be in, and Mazzulla taking the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals (and to Game 7 at that) was a solid accomplishment given the context. Even so, this is a franchise that expects to win a title with this core, and the excuses are now gone for Mazzulla. He has a veteran staff, a full summer to implement his system, and sky-high expectations. If he fails to deliver he could be casualty of those expectations next summer.
Willie Green’s Seat Index: Burning Buns
The New Orleans Pelicans are really good when they are healthy and mediocre when they are not. Unfortunately for head coach Willie Green, they generally haven’t been healthy at any point in the past two years. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum have only played 355 possessions together (per Cleaning the Glass). For a brief whisper of a moment, the Pelicans were one of the best teams in basketball early last season.
Missing the playoffs next season, injuries or no, is off the table for this organization. They want to win, and Willie Green needs to find a way to take them there. If they fall short yet again there will likely be significant changes; that could mean moving a star player, but it could also mean moving on from a promising young coach who wasn’t able to get this group over the hump.
Billy Donovan’s Seat Index: Roasting Rump
In one sense, Billy Donovan has been set up for a burnt booty. He was given a “win-now” roster without much depth, and lost his point guard 20 games in. He has cobbled together an above-average defense by mixing and matching various parts, but with a center who can’t protect the rim and two shaky defenders in the center of the lineup that has meant putting good defenders with limited offensive skills around them, limiting the downside and upside at the same time.
That patch job can only take a team so far, and the clock is ticking on this Bulls roster. If management or ownership have unrealistic expectations about what this team can accomplish (and they clearly do) then Billy Donovan is an excellent candidate to be sacrificed in pursuit of them.
Chris Finch’s Seat Index: Boiling Booty
Last season was a disappointment for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Trading for All-NBA center Rudy Gobert was supposed to mean an elite defense to go with their ascending offense. Instead, the fit between the two centers was understandably awkward, then Karl-Anthony Towns missed most of the season with an injury.
That Chris Finch was able to get the Wolves into the playoffs and to give the Denver Nuggets a decent run for their money is impressive itself, but that doesn’t mean the pressure isn’t on. The Wolves need to make some sort of a playoff run this season to justify the Gobert trade. If Finch can’t deliver on that, whether or not it’s truly “his fault,” he could be on the way out.
Jason Kidd’s Seat Index: Scorching Saddle
The hottest heinie in basketball this year belongs to Jason Kidd of the Dallas Mavericks. A coach who is notorious for wearing out his welcome after a few seasons, Kidd has had an up-and-down tenure in Dallas. In his first season as coach, he led the Mavs to an upset of the Phoenix Suns and a spot in the Western Conference Finals. For an encore, he and the Mavericks tumbled out of the Play-In Tournament entirely.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are not a natural fit, so the former Hall of Fame point guard has to find a way to mesh their playing styles together, all while overseeing significant roster turnover at other positions. If the Mavericks fall short of another playoff run, Kidd could be launched from his hot seat right into the sun.
J.B. Bickerstaff’s Seat Index: Piping Posterior
J.B. Bickerstaff has three full seasons under his belt as the head coach of the Cleveland Cavaliers (he technically coached the final 11 games of the 2019-20 season as well). In year one the Cavs won 22 games, then 44, then 51. That’s a solid progression, and he oversaw the first playoff berth without LeBron James in 25 years.
Bickerstaff’s biggest strength as a head coach is building culture, fostering community among his players and giving them a team identity. To his credit, he has also leaned into some creative decisions, from the “Triple Towers” look two years ago to some clever offensive sets with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell.
Last season was a wild success during the regular season but a crushing disappointment in the postseason, with Cleveland losing to the New York Knicks in an embarrassing five-game fashion. None of Bickerstaff’s adjustments seemed to have an effect, and his decisions on how to deploy Jarrett Allen defensively left the team vulnerable on the glass in ways he could never solve.
The Cavs feel ready to win in the playoffs right now, and they are also feeling the pressure to prove to Donovan Mitchell that he can win in Cleveland. That puts Bickerstaff’s butt firmly on the hot seat, and it’s only going to get toastier. If the Cavs go out in a similar fashion to next season, not only Bickerstaff but one or more key players could be out the door.
Some NBA head coaches do an excellent job of setting the culture and then give way to a better strategist who can help them excel in the playoffs. Mark Jackson giving way to Steve Kerr in Golden State comes to mind. Dan Gilbert and Koby Altman will certainly have that history in mind as they keep a close eye on Bickerstaff’s performance this season.
There are a few head coaches whose bums are burning already to start the year; Bickerstaff’s success has bought him some time. By the time the playoffs roll around, however, it’s very likely that his buns are broiling. Cleveland needs to win at least a playoff series to get Bickerstaff off the Seat Index and back to a comfortable furniture situation.