One of the topics of NBA discussion swirling around the echo chamber of the offseason is whether or not the Cleveland Cavaliers should trade All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell. If he declines to sign a contract extension with the team this offseason, the logic goes, the Cavs have to consider trading him rather than risk losing him for nothing.
Let’s assume for the moment that the franchise does conclude that Mitchell is unlikely to sign an extension to stay with Cleveland and that they are prepared to move him for the right package. Rather than a trade return stuffed with young players and picks, and rather than trying to move Mitchell for a player at another position, what if they simply moved like-for-like?
Would Cavaliers trade Mitchell for another star guard?
The trade saga that everyone is impatiently waiting on is that of Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard has requested a trade, ideally to Miami, but we know the Cavs are not afraid to step into a deal and make an offer. What if they made an offer for Lillard?
Lillard is probably a better player than Mitchell and certainly is more established, but he also is older and more expensive. Would such a move make sense? Let’s break down what a deal would have to look like, and why the Cavaliers might consider such a move.
Laying out the details for a Mitchell – Lillard trade
The reason that trading two stars at similar positions rarely happens is because teams (1) overrate their own players, and (2) a team ready to move a star is usually ready to rebuild. That second point certainly applies here, and the Portland Trail Blazers are unlikely to want Donovan Mitchell back; he would just perpetuate the problem, and they need all the backcourt minutes they can hand to Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
That requires a third team…and it just so happens that the Miami Heat are in the market for an All-Star guard. Would they consider giving up on Lillard and landing Donovan Mitchell instead? If so, a deal could look something like this:
Portland may not want Tyler Herro back, so this could fork even further to loop in a team to take Herro, and the Oklahoma City Thunder need to amend the protections on the pick that the Heat owe them, but we’ll assume for the moment that the Blazers take Herro back to trade later and focus on the principal pieces here.
For Miami, they get a younger player in Mitchell who is nonetheless ready to win now; his shot creation and shooting would be an ideal fit with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. As painful as it is to say, Miami is more likely to re-sign him than Cleveland; that’s an advantage that South Beach always has.
The Blazers get a package similar to what the Heat have been offering for Lillard directly, but the improvement here is Isaac Okoro. After trading away Gary Payton II after a few injury-plagued months last season, Portland doesn’t have a top-end defensive option to defend in the backcourt and on the wing. Okoro would be an ideal addition to fit around Henderson, Sharpe and Anfernee Simons, and the Blazers can afford to be patient with his shot.
Let’s say that both sides are ready to go with this deal; why would Cleveland say yes?
Would the Cavs make this trade?
There are a few different steps for the Cavaliers to make to get to the point where they would make a trade like this. First, they have to decide that they want to trade Donovan Mitchell at all; we’re assuming for the moment that they do. The next step, however, is whether they want to pull back and restock (trading Mitchell for younger players and picks) or push the chips even further into the middle.
This deal would be an example of the latter. Damian Lillard is 33 years old, set to make over $45 million this season. It will be difficult to maintain an elite roster around Lillard for long, and he won’t be playing at a high level forever. There is a path where Mitchell re-signs and the Cavaliers have this core together for the next decade. That can’t happen with Lillard swapped in for Mitchell.
At the same time, Lillard probably raises their ceiling even further right now. He is one of the few guards in the league with more on-ball scoring and shoot verve from everywhere on the court, and he has some of the most impressive playoff moments in recent NBA history. He won’t shirk away from the spotlight when they reach the postseason and he is one of the best locker-room leaders in the league.
Lillard is also under contract for four more seasons, versus just two for Mitchell. He makes significantly more than Mitchell, but he also isn’t going anywhere for quite a while, especially if the Cavs win enough that he doesn’t try to force another trade. That seems unlikely; Lillard wants a chance to win, and the core of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley will elevate the Cavs that far if Lillard remains even just an All-Star over the next few seasons.
There are reasons to like this trade, but it would be an expensive trade for a player who has indicated he wants to be elsewhere. It doesn’t solve any roster-building issues (Lillard is still another small guard to start with Garland) and it greatly restricts their spending power moving forward. Is it worth it to make a push the next few years? Perhaps, but it’s not an obvious decision to make.
Grade: B-