On Thursday night, the Cleveland Cavaliers went with an upside swing with their selection of Emoni Bates at No. 49 overall in the second round of the 2023 NBA Draft.
That was Cleveland’s only selection of the night, and despite Cleveland rumored to be among teams that were considering moving up into the late first round via trade, the Cavaliers did not ultimately do so.
For the Cavaliers, Thursday’s draft was not likely to be one nearly as noteworthy as others in the recent past. This Cavaliers team has to improve on the margins, but they seemingly do have their core pieces in place, so this latest draft was probably not going to be one where’d they land another cornerstone guy, necessarily.
Even with that being the expectation, there are still value picks teams in Cleveland’s position have to find ways to hit on, and for the Cavaliers, they did take something of a swing with their Bates selection.
He is not a player who seems projected to be a contributor early on next season, which is not so rare for rookies in general, and especially not second-rounders, let alone near that pick.
Bates had tons of hype surrounding him heading into college, first at Memphis, but had a difficult first collegiate season there, prior to transferring to Eastern Michigan for his sophomore campaign. He did have a considerable production uptick as a sophomore, on the plus side, and despite some noticeable concerns, he is still a player who could make a big impact if he can put things together.
So with all of that said, what would be the best and worst-case scenarios for this Cavs’ Bates pick?
Beginning with the best-case, that’d pertain to Bates demonstrating how he’s a high-level shot creator.
Best-case scenario for Bates with Cavs: He’s a lethal scorer, either as a starting wing or go-to bench guy
Bates could be playing most of his meaningful minutes with the Cleveland Charge next season as a rookie. He could very well be on a two-way contract going into next year.
Having said that, down the road or even in his rookie season, provided he has more developmental reps, his shot-making could give Cleveland a sizable lift.
He was such a big-name recruit not too long ago, and then as pointed out by ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Bates was the first high school sophomore to be named Gatorade National Boys Basketball Player of the Year.
It’s been a bumpy road since for Bates, but the talent is there for him to be a multifaceted scorer at the NBA level. In what would be a best-case scenario, he’d cash in on his shot-making potential, and prove to give Cleveland isolation scoring pop.
Long-term, it’s clear that Bates has to get stronger to be able to hold up on both ends, and he had some injury issues at the collegiate level. If he can progress next season there and in the near future, though, he has the chance to be a high-end starter or bench microwave scorer.
He has shown tons of ability to create for himself off the bounce, especially with a high release, and while he was streaky in college, Bates has flashed deep range and with better spacing, could maybe develop into a knockdown guy off the catch. A future 18 or so per game scorer, in a best-case scenario is not completely out of the cards for Bates, if he can find his way in the NBA.
One does have to acknowledge that he has to demonstrate he can be more competent fitting in the flow of offense as more of an off-ball player and pass it more, too. Those objectively are big ifs with Bates.
Worst-case for Bates with Cavs: He never makes his presence felt with the Cavs at all
As for a worst-case scenario for Bates with Cleveland, it’d be with him never making an impact with the Cavaliers really at all in meaningful minutes.
In his rookie season, with it seeming to be a high likelihood that Bates begins the campaign on a two-way contract, it might not be the expectation for him to be a consistent rotational contributor with the Cavaliers. For Bates to help his case, he’ll likely have to have his share of developmental time with the Charge.
Bates is a gifted player who has a nice handle and pick-and-roll shot creation abilities, but his shot selection needs refining if he’s going to have a successful career at the NBA level. In a worst-case scenario, that won’t improve, nor will he show progress as an off-ball player.
Further, athletically, there’s a lot to be desired from him, which currently has not led to Bates consistently creating ample space for his shots, and physically, he’s rail thin right now. In addition, he was fairly injury-prone in college, and it’s clear that he needs to get stronger in years ahead for him to help his cause with the Cavs.
If he can’t progress in these areas, he might not ever get much of a shot with the Cavs. The dude is just a 19-year-old, though, and while the expectations are not what they were a handful of years ago when he was such a highly-touted prospect going into college, if the buy-in is there from him, he undoubtedly could be an impact scorer.
It’ll be on Emoni to show he can take his lumps, learn from them and improve gradually. If he does, the kid might be able to have a very long and successful career.