The Cleveland Cavaliers are not simply one step away from winning an NBA Championship. A team doesn’t go from a four-round exit in their first playoff series to truly competing for a title without multiple moves to shore up the team’s attack on both ends.
With that said, the Cavs aren’t a mile away, either. They have their stars in place, and Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley give them a top-10 player in both offense and defense. There are other teams trying to get into the league’s top tier that need to find a star, which is the hardest part of the equation.
As the Cavaliers try to address all of their roster needs, one in specific stands above the rest. They have four stars, all of whom will be the backbone of whatever they accomplish. What they don’t have is a fifth guy, a starter at small forward who can defend and shoot 3-pointers.
The Cavaliers need to find a 3-and-D starter this offseason
Bleacher Report recently listed the toughest offseason decision for every NBA team, and for Cleveland, they listed this exact problem: who will start at small forward next season? There are four primary ways for the team to address the problem; which will ultimately prove to be the best approach?
Solution No. 1: Sign a free agent with the Full Mid-Level Exception
For NBA teams who are over the salary cap, the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) provides a couple of options for signing free agents. In addition to minimum exceptions (signing players to a minimum contract) and the Bi-Annual Exception (a two-year deal the team can offer every other season) each team has the option to use the Full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, often called the “MLE” in league parlance.
The MLE this summer will likely start around $12.2 million, and can go up to four years with five percent raises. That means that if the Cavaliers want to sign a starting small forward in free agency, the most they can offer is a starting salary of $12.2 million and a four-year deal worth $52.67 million.
Is that enough to sign a starting small forward? In the past, the full MLE has been the avenue for many competitive teams to add a key starter who helped push them over the hump. The Phoenix Suns used it to sign Jae Crowder a few seasons ago and he was a key starter in their run to the NBA Finals. It can happen.
The options this summer, however, as quite slim. There are perhaps a dozen free agents this summer who could credibly fit the Cavs’ need of a plug-and-play starter at the 3. Of those, most are either going to be too expensive (Khris Middleton, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes) or aren’t good enough shooters to fit Cleveland’s roster construction.
The one exception might be Dillon Brooks, who certainly would not come without baggage. He has the defensive chops and is at least willing to shoot from outside, but he also is braggadocious and can sabotage a team with his shot selection. If the Cavs believe their culture can help keep him within bounds, he might be the best option available.
It’s possible that Barnes takes a discount if he loves the Cleveland situation, but that’s a long shot. Perhaps Torrey Craig or Jae Crowder will impress the Cavs enough to pay much or all of the MLE to land them. The options simply aren’t all that exciting as the scarcity of 3-and-D wings pushes the value of those available up into the stratosphere.
Solution No. 2: Go bargain-hunting for a few low-cost wings
If there aren’t any 3-and-D wings available in the price range of the Full MLE, perhaps the Cavaliers decide to break it up and sign two players, each for part of the exception. That would improve the overall rotation depth and give the Cavs two shots at “hitting” on a free agent who turns out to fit perfectly.
Torrey Craig had a solid season with the Phoenix Suns but could be pushed out for financial reasons; he earned $5 million this season and could be open to a multi-year contract that gives him a bump on that number. The same goes for his Phoenix teammate T.J. Warren, who has some offensive upside and is further removed from his health issues. Ish Wainwright, Yuta Watanabe, Will Barton, Anthony Lamb or Danuel House could all fit this strategy, to varying degrees.
The Cavaliers could also go bargain hunting on the trade market, looking to somehow package Cedi Osman, Lamar Stevens, Isaac Okoro or even Ricky Rubio to bring back a two-way wing of some sort. The best versions of that player will be out of their price range, but perhaps someone like a Reggie Bullock or Royce O’Neale could be in play.
The problem with this approach is it doesn’t guarantee that the Cavs will find even one two-way starter they can trust at the position. Committing the money they do have to players who may or may not be able to play in the playoffs is a major risk. The Cavs have a host of options at the 3 right now; the problem is that none were able to survive there in the playoffs.
The Cavs may not have another choice this summer, but this is an attempt to solve the problem that may not provide that solution, but they might need to play an entire season to figure that out.
Solution No. 3: Trade Jarrett Allen for a top-end starter
This is the biggest swing the Cavaliers could realistically make. Having Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley locked into the lineup means the Cavs don’t have any lineup versatility; they can’t slide them up and start someone else at center, for example. To “go small” means pulling one of their two big men, and likely putting in less-talented wings.
Trading Allen for a wing would theoretically shift the Cavs’ talent up the lineup, allowing the team to play big or small depending on the opponent and situation. It also is a way to shift the issue with the MLE; instead of shopping for a perimeter player, they can shop for a replacement center.
The problem is that center is a less valuable position than a 3-and-D wing, both because of the replacement value (there are plenty of options available at a low cost) and because of that lineup inflexibility. With a wing you can always play another wing; with a center, you rarely can play another center.
That means trading Allen likely means getting a less talented player back at another position, but that might just need to be the bullet this team bites to unlock their ceiling. We recently pitched a trade that would bring back Jerami Grant in a sign-and-trade. The Cavs will likely call around the league to feel out the trade market for their big man, even if moving him is a tough pill to swallow.
Solution No. 4: Commit to an internal candidate
The easiest path for the Cavaliers to take is to look inside for that fifth starter. That’s the solution they attempted last season, but there may have been enough mitigating factors that it’s worth giving it another shot this season.
Caris LeVert was the first choice, and he ultimately was the last one in the final games of the Cavs’ playoff exit. His offensive game is duplicitous with the star backcourt, but defensively he bought in this year and made major improvements. Cleveland almost has to re-sign him just so that they don’t lose him for nothing; will he start, or continue coming off of the bench?
Isaac Okoro was the starter for most of the season, but he flunked his test; his shot is too much of a liability. Dean Wade, on the other hand, can petition for a re-take. Multiple injuries seemed to jack up his shooting motion, but an offseason of work could solve that. If so, his combination of shooting and defense could make him the frontrunner. Finally, Danny Green could get back to a starter level as he is further removed from his ACL tear if he elects to return to the team.
There is no obvious course of action here. All of their solutions will have drawbacks, and they don’t have the assets available to truly address the problem. Which path they take will have major implications for their future.