Donovan Mitchell has been everything the Cleveland Cavaliers hoped he would be when they traded for him last summer. He still has to prove himself on both ends of the court in the playoffs, and the deal will ultimately be judged on how high the Cavs soar over the next few years and whether Mitchell leaves, but at this point in time he has been incredible.
Mitchell is averaging 27.4 points per game this season, with 4.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.5 steals to go with. He ranks 11th in the NBA in Dunks & Threes’ Estimated Wins, just ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he is ninth in VORP. If he’s not the best shooting guard in basketball, he’s no worse than second. He’s been the best offensive player on the team with the best net rating in the NBA.
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers have an All-NBA guard this season?
The MVP ballot is almost certainly out of his grasp, and he doesn’t fit any of the other singular awards out there. The one major award that is very much in play for Mitchell, however, is All-NBA. While Mitchell has made four All-Star teams he has never been named to an All-NBA team before, but this season could be the year.
Will Mitchell make an All-NBA team? At one point in the season it would have felt like a lock, but the competition is fierce and Mitchell hasn’t done anything lately to seize the narrative. Let’s look at his competition and then place odds on how likely Mitchell is to land his first All-NBA selection this season.
The competition for Mitchell to make All-NBA
Only six guards will make an All-NBA team this season. That may seem both basic and obvious, but it doesn’t matter if Donovan Mitchell or any other guard is playing at an “All-NBA” level; it matters who the top six such players are. This season, the competition is fierce.
There are a few locks out there. Luka Doncic looks like a lock to make First-Team All-NBA. He is second in the league in scoring at 33 points per game, with 8.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists to go with it. His prolific offensive portfolio makes him a lock.
The same goes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who is averaging 31.4 points per game (4th in the NBA) for a team on the cusp of making the Play-In Tournament and competing for a playoff berth. Finally, Stephen Curry looks like a lock despite missing time; his shooting and scoring numbers are incendiary, he’s averaging 6.2 rebounds and 6.2 assists, and his leads the league in 3-pointers per game on a crazy 43.3 percent from deep.
That leaves just three spots for everyone else. Damian Lillard seems like a lock, averaging 32.2 points per game and 7.2 assists, but the Portland Trail Blazers are tumbling into the lottery and he could get shut down for the rest of the year. A similar fate could befall Tyrese Haliburton, who is averaging 20.8 points and 10.4 assists (2nd in the league) but is on an Indiana Pacers team dropping out of the Play-In race.
Then we come to De’Aaron Fox, who is the best player on the league’s best offense, doesn’t seem to miss in crunch time and has all of the momentum heading to the finish line. Ja Morant has put up solid numbers for the West’s second-best team but recent character issues have dinged his resume. Trae Young is having a down year, Devin Booker missed a lot of time, James Harden seems to have been forgotten by the league (he didn’t even make the All-Star Team this season).
That’s a lot of names for just six spots, and we didn’t even mention Anthony Edwards, a rising star who made his first All-Star game this season, or Darius Garland, an advanced stats darling, or Jalen Brunson, who has breathed life into a marquee franchise. Jaylen Brown and Paul George are playing at an All-NBA level and could receive votes at two positions. Jrue Holiday is the best defender out of all of these players and is having a career year offensively for the league’s best team.
That’s an awful lot of competition.
Mitchell’s odds to make an All-NBA team
Conservatively, there are 12 deserving All-NBA candidates for just six slots, so even if you are high on the candidacy of Donovan Mitchell it has to be acknowledged that his odds of making a team as not 100 percent. Some voters will decide to reward Jrue Holiday’s defense and team success, or Damian Lillard’s brilliant scoring, or put Paul George as a guard to fit LeBron James or Lauri Markkanen on the forward line.
With that being said, Mitchell is probably more likely than not to make an All-NBA Team. He has a few big things in his favor. First, he was really good early in the season, so many voters will have been thinking of him as an All-NBA player all year. Secondly, he has the marquee moment that most of his competition does not, the 71-point bonanza earlier this season.
The first two teams are probably locked up, which puts Mitchell in competition on the third team. He seems to be the favorite to land there, perhaps with either De’Aaron Fox or Jrue Holiday beside him. It’s far from a sure thing, however, so let’s put his odds at 75 percent that he will make an All-NBA team this season.
With three weeks to go, here is a prediction for the All-NBA guards:
First Team: Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Second Team: Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry
Third Team: Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox