With three days left in the month of February, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 38-25, good for fourth in the Eastern Conference (and sixth in the league overall). They are three games behind the Philadelphia 76ers for third place in the standings, with the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics likely too far ahead to catch.
The past week might lead Cavs fans to think they can’t catch Philly, either, and cause them to start looking down at the teams chasing Cleveland. That’s fair, but a three-game losing streak after winning seven-straight still balances out to a strong 7-3 record over their past ten games. Catching Philly is possible; here is why they can do it.
Reason No. 1: The Cavaliers have the easier schedule
The Cleveland Cavaliers have just 19 games remaining, the fewest in the entire league. That allows their final schedule to be spaced out, giving this team time to rest between games and even go through some practices to continue to sharpen their strategy. It should reduce wear and tear and give the Cavs the best shot at being healthy for the playoffs.
In addition, the teams remaining for the Cavs are among the easiest left leaguewide. They currently have the third-easiest remaining schedule, with seven games left against the league’s five-worst teams. The 76ers, on the other hand, have the second-hardest remaining schedule, with 23 games crammed into the rest of the schedule (tied for first in the league). Factor in an easy travel schedule, and it all adds up to a huge advantage for Cleveland down the stretch.
Reason No. 2: The Cavaliers have been the better team
The Philadelphia 76ers have banked one more win and five fewer losses than the Cleveland Cavaliers this season, but not all wins and losses are created equal. The Sixers have an average point differential in their games of +3.8, which is a solid number, a hair ahead of Milwaukee for the third-best mark in the East.
The Cavs, however, check in at +5.1, the second-best differential in the East and in the entire NBA. They have the league’s best defense and a solid offense, and despite their own collection of injuries have played consistently well all season long.
Point differential has proven to be a more accurate reflection of a team’s quality than their record. That suggests that the Cavaliers will not only perform better moving forward because of a softer schedule, they will perform better because they are the better team.
That doesn’t mean things can’t change; what has happened is not a guarantee for what will happen. Still, there is little to point to for why Philly will get substantially better or Cleveland will get substantially worse over the rest of the season, and if that is the case the Cavs have the advantage and the superior metrics.
Reason No. 3: The Cavaliers have a deeper team
The Philadelphia 76ers have the best player on either of these two rosters; that doesn’t seem like a hot take. Joell Embiid is a legitimate MVP candidate for the third consecutive season and destroys anyone he plays, Cleveland included. From there, the Sixers might also have the second-best player; it’s a reasonable conversation between James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
What is also not a hot take is that the Cavs have four of the best six players on these two rosters. That level of “star depth” allows this team to weather an injury to a key player. If Mitchell is hurt, Darius Garland is also an elite perimeter creator and playmaker. If Jarrett Allen is hurt, Evan Mobley is one of the league’s best rim protectors to step in (and he is much more capable to filling in than he was as a rookie last year when Allen was hurt).
If Embiid gets hurts, the Sixers don’t have anyone to turn to. Montrezl Harrell can score but he is taking a lot away defensively; Paul Reed is completely outside of the rotation and is an energy big, not a hulking behemoth in the paint. James Harden can shoulder some more offensive load, but the Sixers would really struggle to play without Embiid. They can better weather a Harden injury with Tyrese Maxey, but he’s a huge target on defense and has been best deployed off of the bench.
The Cavs don’t have one single player who would cripple them if they lost them, and the Sixers do. They can better weather any potential injuries down the stretch. Neither of these teams will win it all without their core healthy, but short-term injuries are something the Cavs can handle as well as anyone in the league.
None of these factors make it a lock that the Cavaliers will catch the 76ers, but they all help to make the case. If both teams continue at their current level of play, against their respective schedules, and factoring in the chance of injury, Cleveland has a great shot to close the three-game gap and finish in third in the Eastern Conference.