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Cavaliers remain undervalued in odds to win NBA championship

By Peter Dewey

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’ve officially reached the stretch run of the 2022-23 NBA season, and the futures market, specifically for the NBA Finals, is really starting to take shape.

The Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks have seen their odds shorten in recent weeks, but one team hasn’t.

The Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland currently holds the No. 4 spot in the Eastern Conference, sitting five games behind Boston for the top spot. Yet, the Cavs are +3000 to win the NBA Finals this season, in the same range as the Los Angeles Lakers (+4000, No. 13 in the West), and well behind the next closest team, the Memphis Grizzlies (+1700).

Yes, Cleveland has a young team, but this is simply disrespectful when you look at the landscape of the East, and the crowded Western Conference this season.

Here are just a few reasons why the Cavs should be looked at much more seriously as title contenders:

Every team’s odds to win the NBA Finals in 2022-23 season

Why Cavs can win NBA Finals in 2022-23 season

Remaining strength of schedule

Cleveland has an easy finish to the 2022-23 season, which could allow it to grab a higher seed than expected in the East and get an easier first-round matchup.

Tankathon currently rates the Cavs’ remaining schedule as the 27th toughest in the NBA. The teams ahead of these in the East (Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) are all much higher.

Philly has the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA, while Boston (No. 10) and Milwaukee (No. 11) are both in the top half of the league.

Those teams may win many of those games, but there certainly are more chances for losses down the stretch with stronger opponents on the schedule.

Cleveland’s season-long metrics are elite

There are just three teams in the NBA that rank inside the top-10 in the league in offensive and defensive rating this season:

  • Boston: No. 3 offense, No. 4 defense
  • Philadelphia: No. 6 offense, No. 6 defense
  • Cleveland: No. 10 offense, No. 1 defense

The Cavs also have the second best net rating in the NBA, behind only Boston.

Dating back to the 2011-12 season, every single team that has won the NBA Finals has finished with a top five net rating that season. So, Cleveland is among the teams in that conversation in the 2022-23 campaign, yet it is behind most of the contenders in the East and West in the odds.

There are valid concerns about the experience of the Cavs roster, but this team has played some of the best basketball in the league all season long. At +3000, Cleveland is worth a shot in the latest NBA Finals odds.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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