The Cleveland Cavaliers are absolutely rolling. The season is a long one, so it’s important not to get carried away by any five-game stretch, but the Cavs are on a five-game winning streak with wins over the Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz and most recently the Milwaukee Bucks.
To say they have exceeded expectations this season would be an understatement. The latest victory over Milwaukee has them tied in the wins column with the Bucks and Celtics, and their +6.5 net rating is first in the entire NBA. They are first in SRS (which factors in their strength of schedule) and in adjusted-net rating. Simply put, the Cavs look like the best team in the NBA right now.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are exceeding expectations, as are a number of their players.
Basketball is a team game, but a team is made up of individuals who all must play together. If any single player doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain the lineup has a hole that could be too much for the others to make up for. On the other hand, players balling out and playing at their peak will elevate those around them.
Just as the team is exceeding expectations, so are many of the players on the roster as well. Earlier this week we handed out some awards, so let’s pivot and give a standing ovation to the roster’s best this season. We will highlight three Cavs players exceeding expectations this season, starting with the MVP candidate wearing wine and gold every night.
3 Cleveland Cavaliers who have exceeded expectations: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell is a three-time All-Star, and he is no stranger to large scoring bursts. He averaged 20.5 points per game as a rookie and has never dropped below 23.8 since. Yet this year he is blowing away his previous career-best, dropping 29.5 points per game on an incendiary 64.4 percent true-shooting.
The last time the Cavs had someone scoring at this level was…well, you know who it was. Mitchell obviously isn’t LeBron James, but he is a legitimate MVP candidate as he scores inside and out for one of the league’s best teams. In particular, his 3-point shooting has been electric. Out of all 25 players attempting at least seven 3-pointers per game Mitchell ranks second in 3-point percentage at 42.8 percent, behind only Stephen Curry.
The advanced metrics back up Mitchell’s impact too. Box Plus-Minus ranks Mitchell fifth on offense and seventh overall. Estimated Plus-Minus ranks him 11th overall and fifth on offense. When you factor in volume he is seventh in the league in Estimated Wins added. RAPTOR wins above replacement? Fifth. So on and so forth.
Mitchell has been everything the Cavs could have hoped for in acquiring him this summer. Without taking anything away from Darius Garland or Jarrett Allen he has been the best player on the Cavs, full-stop, and has given them a top-15 player right now to lead them into the playoffs for the first time since the last one left.
3 Cleveland Cavaliers who have exceeded expectations: Lamar Stevens
Coming into the season Lamar Stevens looked like the odd man out in the rotation. His lack of shooting made him a tough sell at small forward, and power forward was crowded with Evan Mobley, Kevin Love and Dean Wade. Without Lauri Markkanen around to space the floor it looked like Stevens was going to spend this season largely riding the pine.
Instead, Stevens took advantage of a knee injury to Wade to leap right into the starting lineup. He still might not be shooting much, but at least his 33.3 percent from deep is a career-high. What Stevens is providing is energy, rebounding and defense and is a key part of the Cavs’ league-leading defense.
Stevens got his showcase last week in Dallas, when the Cavs rolled in and demolished the Mavericks in their own house. Stevens got the Luka Doncic assignment and stepped up to the plate (sorry to mix sports metaphors), forcing Doncic into a 9-of-23 night (39.1 percent) with five turnovers dragging down his six assists. Stevens had his best offensive game of the season that same night, with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Stevens was +22 on the night; Doncic was -20.
When Dean Wade returns he looks like a better fit for the starting spot than Stevens, but even if he doesn’t start he looks to have carved out a consistent role in the rotation. His energy on defense is infectious and is a key part of the chemistry that is taking these individual players and elevating them to best-in-the-league heights.
3 Cleveland Cavaliers who have exceeded expectations: The Young Phenom
On the surface, it isn’t immediately clear that Evan Mobley is exceeding expectations. He is averaging just 14.8 points per game, less than the 15 he averaged as a rookie, and the ever-important 3-point shooting is at 24.3 percent this season, hardly the leap forward many hoped for.
Yet look a little closer and you can see a player who is still growing, who has harnessed his defensive gifts and who is excelling in his role. Playing on a team with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, there aren’t innumerable touches to go around. Mobley may be scoring the same as last season but he is doing so with a lower usage rate. His true-shooting percentage went up from 54.9 percent to 60.2 percent.
The Cavs don’t need Mobley to score 25 points per game right now, and he isn’t forcing shots to get his points. Instead, he has been an integral piece in the Cavs’ elite puzzle. Defensively he has continued to excel, leading the league in defensive win-shares. Last season when Jarrett Allen was out the Cavs’ defense crumbled; this season Mobley helped to stabilize it and the Cavs picked up a number of marquee wins without Allen, including when Mobley took on Joel Embiid and won.
What’s scary is that Mobley has plenty more growth inside of him, and his trajectory remains that of a truly special player. When you add that to role players like Lamar Stevens stepping up and Donovan Mitchell balling out, it’s no wonder that this team is exceeding expectations.