The Cleveland Cavaliers have had something of an up-and-down season thus far. Eight straight wins are bracketed on either side by five losses. The Cavs who dominated their opponents for two weeks now look a little shakier, and what we thought we knew about them is called a little into question.
That’s the difficult part of evaluating a team in the early part of the season. Every single game is magnified because of the small sample size on hand. One blowout win or loss can have a big effect on a team’s underlying metrics, and trends that appear now could be gone in a few weeks as things continue to balance out.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have had an up-and-down year thus far. Let’s play Buy or Sell with some early-season trends to predict if they will continue.
On a macro level, the Cavs still look like a dominant team. They have had four straight losses, yes, but they were in all four games until the final minute. They are ranked in the top-3 in both offense and defense. This is a team that should still be counted among the best in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league.
What about some other early-season trends? Are they indicative of what to expect moving forward, or are they a fluke that will disappear as the season goes on? Let’s look at three interesting trends and play “Buy or Sell” on whether they will continue.
Buy or Sell 3 trends from Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleaning the Glass
Trend: 1st in Defensive Rebounding Percentage
The Cleveland Cavaliers look like the sort of team that would rebound well. They start a pair of seven-footers in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, a size advantage that should give them a head start on corraling rebounds. That has been the case this season, as the Cavs rank first in Defensive Rebounding Percentage at 81.7 percent.
That stat tracks what percentage of available defensive rebounds that a team grabs, and is an important part of a team’s defense. Forcing a miss does little good if the opponent gets an offensive rebound and can take another shot. Cleaning the glass ends a defensive possession and gets the ball moving in the other direction.
Will this trend continue? On the one hand, it’s an outlier from last season. Even though the Cavs played even bigger, with the seven-foot Lauri Markkanen starting at the 3, they ranked 18th in the league with a 76.5 percent DRP. It was a problem for them all season, even when all of their bigs were healthy. That suggests they could fall back into the pack.
On the other hand, the Cavs have the personnel to excel in this area. Allen is a behemoth inside and rebounds extremely well on both ends of the court. Kevin Love, playing a large role as this team’s “Sixth Man” is an elite defensive rebounder, and leads the league in DRP this season. Even Robin Lopez, playing a small role, is known for his boxouts that allow teammates to clear the glass.
The Cavs may not remain first with a bullet in defensive rebounding, but there is no reason they can’t stay at the very top of the league.
Verdict: Buy
Buy or Sell 3 trends from Cleveland Cavaliers: Starting lineup is bad
Trend: Starting lineup has a -5.7 net rating
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a core of four stars that are ready to win now and are young enough to win for a very long time. Those four players are locks to start. The question all offseason was who on the team would earn the final starting spot at small forward, and the answer for the coaching staff became Caris LeVert.
That starting group — Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, LeVert, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — has only started six games together due to a variety of injuries. They have totaled 100 minutes together, and the results have been…not good. They have a -5.7 net rating, with a frigid offensive rating and a shaky defense. Out of 14 lineups leaguewide that have logged at least 100 minutes, they rank 11th. Out of 47 lineups that have played at least 50 minutes, they rank 32nd.
Will this continue? There are two layers to an answer. On the one hand, no, this will not continue. That five-man combination should be better offensively than they have been together, and with a healthy Darius Garland moving forward should perform better. It would be surprising if that group doesn’t get to at least break-even over the course of the season. They won’t be this bad.
On the other hand, the early trend is speaking to a core flaw with that group. Caris LeVert is fighting defensively, and both Mitchell and Garland look improved on that end, but none of them are plus defenders and collectively they give up a fair amount of size. The Cavs have one other 5-man lineup that has logged more than 50 minutes, the starting group when Garland was out with Dean Wade swapped in. That is the sixth-best lineup out of 47 in the league, with a +23.6 net rating.
Starting games with Caris LeVert is fine, and that lineup will get better. Swap him out for Dean Wade, however, and you get a group that is better balanced and much more capable defensively. Given the offensive brilliance of Mitchell and Garland, this seems like the right way to use the players available.
Verdict: Sell…but a little Buy
Buy or Sell 3 trends from Cleveland Cavaliers: Scoring diversity
Trend: 3 players who have scored 40-plus points this season
The Cleveland Cavaliers start three impact scorers on the perimeter, players who can explode for a huge scoring binge at any time. Donovan Mitchell is among the league leaders in points per game, Darius Garland became the first player (by about an hour) to hit 50 points this season, and Caris LeVert dropped 41 points in an overtime win over the Boston Celtics earlier this season.
That gives the Cavs three players who have hit the 40-point mark this season, the only such team that can make that claim. In fact, only one team has had even two such players, with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers each getting there.
Last season three teams had at least three players get to 40 points. The Milwaukee Bucks predictably were one, with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton joining Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Los Angeles Lakers got there when Malik Monk and Talen Horton-Tucker went crazy in meaningless games in the final week of the season to join LeBron James. Amazingly, the league leader in this category was the New York Knicks, who saw a whopping five players hit the 40-point mark: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier and Obi Toppin.
Will the Cavs lead the league in this category? They certainly have a head start with three players already there. It would be surprising if Garland and Mitchell do not get back there, but it would be equally surprising if anyone else on the team reaches 40. Kevin Love doesn’t play enough minutes, Evan Mobley isn’t there as a scorer and no one else on the team would seem to have that potential within them.
Therefore, will the rest of the league hang back and let the Cavs win with three? Probably not. A number of teams have at least three players who could pop off for 40 on any given night, from Embiid/Maxey/James Harden on the 76ers, to Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown/Malcolm Brogdon on the Celtics, the Bucks trio, the Warriors, the Nuggets, etc. That doesn’t even count the random pop-offs that occur, often late in the season. The league is scoring at such a high level, and with so many talented offensive players, that it’s very likely the Cavs get passed in this stat.
Still, it’s a strength of this Cavs team that they have that scoring redundancy; if one player is having an off night, there are others ready to step up. That should help the Cavs with consistency throughout the season. It just might not be enough to win this fairly obscure category.
Verdict: Sell