When the various publications around the NBA media world made their season predictions, a lot of familiar names came up as MVP candidates. Luka Doncic was installed as the betting favorite, Giannis Antetokounmpo got some buzz to reclaim his throne and win a third MVP, and younger player like Jayson Tatum, Ja Morant and Devin Booker were mentioned as those ready to ascend.
All of those predictions look good three weeks into the season, as all of the aforementioned players are having great seasons. Yet the one name that never came up, that no one expected to explode into having a top-5 season, was Donovan Mitchell.
The stars are out in the NBA this season, and the MVP Watch showcases some amazing performances. How has the Cavs’ Donovan Mitchell broken in?
Newly arrived on a Cleveland Cavaliers team not yet ready for contention, this was a season of evaluation for Mitchell. Would he look shaky without Rudy Gobert setting screens and guarding the rim behind him, or would he look liberated in a new location with younger, more dynamic teammates?
The answer was clearly the latter, as Mitchell has been incredible and the Cavs are riding an eight-game winning streak. Any discussion of MVP candidates right now has to include Mitchell. Does that mean he has crashed the party all the way to the top? In many other years, the answer is probably yes, but a few other star players are having absolutely bonkers starts to the season.
Let’s rank the current MVP candidates, starting from “Freak” (Greek, that is) and dropping to the group rounding out the Top 10. Which players have been the most incredible, the most successful, the most valuable? And just how high does Mitchell land?
MVP Watch: No. 1 – Giannis Antetokounmpo
The two-time MVP and one-time Defensive Player of the Year is gunning for repeats in both categories (although his teammate Brook Lopez might have something to say about the second award). The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-0 with the league’s best defense, smothering opponents even without Khris Middleton to start the year.
Antetetokounmpo has been dominant, averaging 32.6 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. He has grown as a finisher, able to do far more than dunk now, which makes him nearly unguardable. Defensively he’s the greatest weakside rim-protector in the NBA. The Bucks have to lose a game sometime, but whether Antetokounmpo will lose his spot at the top of the MVP ladder is yet to be seen.
MVP Watch: No. 2 – Luka Doncic
Giannis takes the top spot due to his two-way excellence, but if this was a ranking of players having the most outstanding scoring seasons, Luka Doncic would be No. 1 with a bullet. He is averaging 36 points per game, riding an historic eight-game streak of scoring at least 30-points to start the year; that hasn’t been done since Wilt Chamberlain, folks.
Doncic is carrying the Mavericks’ offense like he is peak-James Harden, with a usage rate of 39.4 percent paired with an assist rate of 49.4 percent; in other words, he has his hands in almost everything happening while on the court.
He is averaging 8.8 rebounds and 8.6 assists to round out his statistical profile. His 3-point shooting has been cold to start the year, making his scoring binge even more impressive, and the question is whether his scoring regresses down or his shooting regresses up first.
MVP Watch: No. 3 – Donovan Mitchell
Three weeks should not rewrite the book on a player, and coming into the season Donovan Mitchell was ranked somewhere between 20 and 25 on most “Top 100” type publications. That seemed reasonable given his offensive prowess and defensive weaknesses over the past few years. A key question for Mitchell and the Cavs heading into this season was whether Mitchell would apply his athleticism and defensive tools to become something less destructive on that end.
The answer to that question was yes, as Mitchell looks to be giving effort on that end like he hasn’t in years, if ever. He is rotating quickly, he has a couple of highlight-reel blocks, and overall he is playing heavy minutes for the league’s second-best defense. Yet that is only the cherry on top of his MVP case, which has exploded because of his high-octane offensive production.
Mitchell is currently averaging 31.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game, all career-highs. His 3-pointer is falling at 40.8 percent (also a career-best) and he has been running the show for a Cavaliers team that is on an eight-game winning streak despite having Darius Garland for only two of those games.
It’s possible Mitchell may cool off, but it’s also very possible that the energy the Cavs are playing with right now, and the support of having a second star alongside him in Darius Garland, allows Mitchell to stay hyper-efficient and continue his top-level play. If that holds true, and the Cavs continue winning like a top-4 team in the East, Mitchell can absolutely stay in this race for the entire year.
MVP Watch: No. 4 – Jayson Tatum
If the Boston Celtics didn’t have the Cleveland Cavaliers on their schedule, they would have just one loss and be at the top of the league again. Those two losses to the Cavs have dinged their record just slightly, but they still look like one of the inner-circle title contenders again this year, especially when Robert Williams III returns.
The primary reason is that Jayson Tatum has continued to grow as a player. The Celtics’ wing is averaging 30.3 points per game on a combination of great shooting and foul-drawing ability; he is shooting 8.1 free throws per game and hitting 90.4 percent of them. His 65.6 percent true-shooting (which takes into account free-throws and 3-pointers) is up with Stephen Curry and just behind Nikola Jokic among MVP candidates.
MVP Watch: No. 5 – Nikola Jokic
Speaking of the reigning two-time MVP, Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have clawed their way back from a wobbly start to get to 6-3, with the Joker unsurprisingly leading the way. The box score says he is averaging a ho-hum-for-him 20.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists; nearly every advanced metric you can find screams that he is dominating the league once again.
Jokic absolutely controls a game when the Nuggets have the ball, orchestrating the offense with the ball and unlocking it without with his timely cuts and screens. Having Jamal Murray back, while bringing some rust to be knocked off, has begun to reveal even more facets of Jokic’ game that have been missing for nearly two years. He just barely beats out Devin Booker for the fifth spot on our MVP ballot.
MVP Watch: Next five – Devin Booker, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, Pascal Siakam
The next group of players are those still within striking distance of winning the award and feature a collection of expected candidates and a couple of surprise members. Devin Booker leads the way as the “just-missed” player, the best on a 7-2 team that has been cruising to start the year. If the Suns end up as the top seed again he will likely continue to be in the MVP conversation.
Stephen Curry and Ja Morant were both among the circle of preseason contenders for the award. Curry is averaging 31 points per game on his normal incendiary shooting splits, plus he is chipping in seven rebounds and 6.8 assists to go with it. Unfortunately, the Warriors are 3-7 as the team falls apart when Curry is off the court. Ja Morant is playing for a Grizzlies team that has been more successful than the Warriors, but his nasty start to the season has mellowed out a bit.
Pascal Siakam is going to miss some time due to an adductor strain, so he will likely join Damian Lillard on the injured list for this MVP ranking. Fully healthy, however, is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, putting up a wild stat line for the frisky Oklahoma City Thunder: 30.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 2.3(!) steals and 1.1(!!) blocks per game. That block average already would place him around the top-20 all-time in blocks for a guard, but only three other guards have ever averaged two steals and a block per game before: Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade and Ron Harper.
There is a lot of basketball still to be played, and this list will turn on its heads once or twice before all is said and done. Still, right now Donovan Mitchell has placed himself right near the top and established himself as an offensive powerhouse. Given the supporting cast around him, that means the ceiling on the Cavs has gone from high to atmospheric.