The Cleveland Cavaliers at a certain point last year looked like they were a lock to make the playoffs. The high mark for them was on Feb. 11, when they had a 35-21 record and at the time were tied with the Chicago Bulls for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland went into the All-Star break with a 35-23 record, which put them 4th in a tough East.
Around that point, injuries started to derail the Cavs season. Darius Garland missed some games with an ailing back around the All-Star break and even post-All-Star break. With the Cavaliers having already lost Ricky Rubio and Collin Sexton, and with Caris LeVert missing a bunch of games post-All-Star Break, Garland was often the only legitimate ball handler Cleveland had.
When Garland was off the court the offense fell apart. We saw that late in games everything was on Garland to do everything, considering they didn’t have another truly respectable ball handler.
Jarrett Allen mostly being out post-All-Star and even Evan Mobley missing some time was also a major contributing factor to the defensive slip and another reason why they slipped in the standings then. I think before the blockbuster Donovan Mitchell trade, if you were projecting the Cavs getting a healthy Rubio and Sexton back, LeVert being more comfortable, while seeing a leap from Mobley and another jump from Garland, you could see a scenario where the Cavaliers jump a team like the Bulls and be a No. 6-7 seed.
That may not sound like a huge jump, but it is when you consider the gauntlet that the East now is. Considering the Cavs haven’t come near their potential ceiling as a young team, a No. 6-7 seed would be a good season.
The trade for Mitchell, meanwhile, is an absolute game-changer for the Cavs and assuredly, in my opinion, should solidify them as a playoff team. I think before, their best-case scenario was probably the 6th seed. After that acquisition from the Utah Jazz, the Cavaliers could get as high as the 3rd seed with Mitchell in the fold.
The Mitchell deal should make the Cavs a playoff lock, and it raises their ceiling
Before the Mitchell trade, LeVert was the most likely starter along with Lauri Markkanen, while the other 2 players traded in Sexton and Ochai Agbaji were expected to have big roles in the bench rotation.
The Cavaliers gave up some key players in the rotation, yes; still, they certainly don’t equate to the player that Donovan Mitchell is. Instead the Cavaliers replaced them and LeVert with Mitchell, a top 15 player and a 3-time All-Star, at the starting 2 position.
The Cavs finished last year tied for 17th in offensive efficiency, however, they again really fell apart when DG wasn’t on the court. Adding Sexton back, Rubio, and LeVert would’ve really helped in that area, but instead they added a top 15 player in Mitchell and one of the league’s most dynamic scorers.
It’s a question mark, sure; despite that, if Rubio can get semi-close to where he was before the injury with a lot less pressure on LeVert being in a key bench role, that’d be significant.
Garland and Mitchell should fit very well and when you look at their games they should be able to play off each other. Garland isn’t necessarily a ball-dominant player with his shooting abilities, vision and passing acumen.
The ball was in Mitchell’s hands a ton at Utah, but offensively he had to always carry the load as they didn’t really have many guys that could score consistently via their own shot creation. Mitchell can score in any way, is a tremendous shooter and a decent playmaker. Offensively I believe you’ll see the Cavaliers make a huge jump in the 2022-23 campaign.
The Cavs should be able to manage defensively, and they’ll be a motivated young group
Now, defensively there will be questions, and Isaac Okoro is arguably the biggest X-factor. Okoro is a very good defender; that said, if he can make strides as a shooter and become a legitimate 3-and-D player, it’d unlock another element for this team. The Cavaliers have a small backcourt, but defensively unlike the Garland/Sexton years, Mitchell has much more defensive potential than Sexton.
No, that hasn’t been proven yet, as an aside. Still, Mitchell is a physically more opposing player with Mitchell coming in at 215 pounds compared to Sexton’s 190 pounds. That’s a 25-pound difference, while Mitchell for his size and position has a very good wingspan at 6-foot-10 compared to Sexton’s 6-foot-6.
And personally, I think Mitchell took off defensively in Utah because he often had to exert way more energy offensively, as he had to mostly shoulder all the load offensively. Also if you’re going to have a small backcourt, the Cavaliers now have the personnel to get away with it with the likes of Okoro, Mobley and Allen covering up any potential weak spots.
This was a team that if not for injuries probably would’ve made the playoffs. Yes, the Eastern Conference is brutal and other teams got better. Although considering the talent that was already on the roster with Garland, Mobley and Allen, I can comfortably say adding Mitchell puts the Cavs over teams like the Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, and Toronto Raptors. I think it’s a very safe bet at the very least the Cavaliers outright make the playoffs. It would be a disappointment if they aren’t at least a top 6 team, even in an ultra-competitive East.
I think the Cavs’ floor is probably the No. 6 seed. The Bulls had a good season last year and had injuries themselves, however, Lonzo Ball’s health is still a question mark, and per the Bulls, he will undergo another knee procedure, and is set to be re-evaluated in 4-to-6 weeks. On top of that I don’t expect DeMar DeRozan to have the career year that he had last year.
The toughest argument would be the Raptors. The Cavaliers and Raptors should have a rivalry for a long time, particularly the Mobley vs. Scottie Barnes matchup. I thought last year the Raptors were further along than the Cavs, but the two teams were close last year and I believe adding Mitchell, who is the best player among the two teams for next year, right now pushes the Cavs past the Raptors.
I could see Cleveland going as high as No. 3 in the East. Older teams such as the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks could not take the regular season as serious and they’d take a step back as far as the regular season is concerned. We know what adding Mitchell does, but I think if a couple things break in their favor they could get that high.
Garland should be even better next year and Mobley should take a leap, to reiterate. If Okoro becomes a true 3-and-D guy, that’d be a different dynamic, and more importantly, Mobley if has a huge leap and breakout, that would be the difference in being a top 4-5 seed in 2022-23. If that’s the case, perhaps the Cavaliers could win a postseason series and/or possibly make a deep run.
A potential Mobley breakout and to a lesser extent Okoro making big strides offensively might determine how high the Cavs ceiling is now, but in future years, as things stand now getting Donovan Mitchell makes the Wine and Gold a very safe bet to be a top 6 seed and outright make the playoffs.
Even in a tough Eastern Conference, they’re in good shape.