The Cleveland Cavaliers made a great move in trading for Donovan Mitchell. It felt like a great move, we called it a great move, and so did experts across the Internet. Mitchell himself went screaming around the golf course in joy when he found out who he was joining.
Yet every reasonable analysis of the deal has to acknowledge the potential downside. What if the defense is untenable for true contention because of the Darius Garland – Mitchell pairing? What if Mitchell leaves in a couple of seasons? How do the Cavs survive without a small forward on the roster?
The Cavs made a great trade for Donovan Mitchell. What are the steps that would take this trade from great to epic and bring home a championship?
What we’re going to do here is look the other way. What if everything goes right? What’s the upside of this trade? The answer to that has to be a championship, or this deal wasn’t worth it. And the reality of having four All-Star level players under contract for multiple seasons and all 26 or under is that the Cavs absolutely can win a title sometime in the next half-decade. In fact, the odds are probably higher than you think that they’ll win one with this core.
What’s the path to get to that championship? Let’s highlight three key steps for this roster to turn them from exciting young team to title winners, starting with the team finding the fifth member of their starting lineup hiding in plain sight.
How Cavs trade for Mitchell goes epic: Isaac Okoro learns to shoot
Currently, the Cavs have a glaring weakness in the center of their roster. The backcourt of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell is right up there as the most potent offensive pairing in the league, and Ricky Rubio is as good as it gets for a backup point guard. Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love are the best set of bigs this side of Minnesota.
But at small forward? That’s the tricky part. The Cavs will need to play someone out of position at the 3, which was the plan anyway but even more so now that Lauri Markkanen and Ochai Agbaji are gone. Caris LeVert is a terrible fit with the starters and needs to be traded away or at least moved to the bench. Dean Wade is a great option to start, but his ceiling is limited to being a role player.
Isaac Okoro still has a lot of upside to become a two-way force, but it all hinges on his outside shot. He is a stout defender who can take on any backcourt player and most wings, and while he is best deployed as a shooting guard he can survive at the 3 on defense. It’s his offense that becomes the problem, as Okoro shot just 31.5 percent from deep in his first two seasons.
Okoro has a little bit of on-ball juice, and if that comes along he can attack advantage situations. What will truly boost his ceiling and this team’s is his shooter, though. If he can become a 39 or 40 percent shooter on good volume it would not only unlock the starting lineup, it would unlock his game as well. Even if the Cavs acquire a 3-and-D wing to play the 3, Okoro would be a dangerous option off the bench in a rotation with Ricky Rubio, Garland and Mitchell.
How Cavs trade for Mitchell goes epic: Donovan Mitchell re-signs
The biggest concern about this trade is that Donovan Mitchell, a star guard with a substantial off-court celebrity status from New York City, will be unhappy playing in ho-hum Cleveland, Ohio. Clearly he will agitate for a trade at the earliest opportunity.
There is certainly something for that take, especially given the long and recent history of stars leaving small markets to play in large markets. Yet Mitchell hasn’t been known to be an agitator, and he was moved by the Utah Jazz because the team, not Mitchell, needed to move him to accelerate their rebuild.
Mitchell was reportedly very excited to be landing in Cleveland, and he demonstrated as much with his Twitter account:
— Donovan Mitchell (@spidadmitchell) September 1, 2022
Playing in a big market is fun, but winning at the highest levels is even more fun. That’s what this Cleveland Cavaliers team has the potential to do. If Mitchell and his fellow young stars on the Cavs break through, either to a title or at least clear contention for one, he could easily decide to re-sign with the Cavs and continue the fight. Then the longevity of this deal breaks open any discussion of cost.
How Cavs trade for Mitchell goes epic: Mobley becomes a superstar
Donovan Mitchell is an incredibly gifted player, one of the best scoring threats in the league and one with a track record of performing in the playoffs. He also probably won’t ever be considered a Top 10 player in the league. Darius Garland is continuing to grow in leaps in bounds, has the full offensive skillset and his passing skills allow him to punish defenses in more ways than one. Yet only one team with a small guard as its best player has won a title in decades, and no one, not even Garland, is going to reach Stephen Curry’s level.
Teams need a top 10 guy to win a title, and realistically a top 5 guy. Each of the last 11 title-winners has had one of these four players on it: Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard.
How do the Cavs get a player like that? They develop one, and Evan Mobley is special enough to be that sort of player. Being as good as LeBron or Giannis is a long-shot, but the ensemble cast in Cleveland is good enough to win if Mobley can get into that general conversation. He could be the best defensive player in the league in three years, and a perennial 25-point scorer too.
If the Cavs get an answer at small forward, such as Isaac Okoro developing his shot, keep Donovan Mitchell around and watch Evan Mobley grow into a Top 10 player, suddenly they have more than a chance to reach the NBA Finals and bring home a trophy. That’s the path to the Mitchell trade going from great to epic.