NBA Free Agency is, by definition, a low-value game. The most valuable contracts in the league are for rookie-scale contracts and max players. For example, Darius Garland will make just $8.92 million next season despite being the Cavs’ best player, and Nikola Jokic is worth significantly more than his $33 million deal.
To get a young, inexpensive player like Garland you generally have to draft them, and to get a max player you generally have to draft or trade for them. Free agency is mainly reserved for the NBA’s middle class, who by definition are overpriced as teams bid on them in the open market.
NBA Free Agency is functionally a place to overpay player, but the Cavs and other teams beat the system when they signed this “All-Value” team of players
Every summer there are a few teams that buck that trend, outwit the system and find their diamonds in the rough. They sign players to contracts that are well under the expected return, setting themselves up for success by maximizing the salary flexibility they have.
Let’s highlight some of the best values this summer by putting together an “All-Value” Team from Free Agency. What five players, signed in free agency to new contracts on new teams, represent the best return on investment for their teams. We will start the All-Value Team with a player returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers on a bargain contract.
All-Value Free Agent Team – Point Guard: Ricky Rubio, Cleveland Cavaliers
For the purposes of this article, we’ll be evaluating the value of players both subjectively and using a more objective calculation based on a player’s estimated wins added. In both cases, Ricky Rubio grades out as a tremendous value signing for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs signed Rubio to a three-year, $18.44 million contract. Going by Seth Partnow’s recent article ($$) explaining the cost of an NBA win, which he pegged as $3.44 million per win, Rubio would need to add 5.36 wins over the course of three seasons to justify the offer, or 1.79 per season.
Last season, per Estimated Plus-Minus, Rubio contributed 2.8 wins to the Cavs…in just 34 games. He was on pace to provide more than those 5.36 wins last season alone. Even if he misses most of this season, a Rubio anywhere near as productive as last season will be an insane value. John Hollinger estimated that a healthy Rubio would be worth $15.48 million this upcoming season alone, behind only Jalen Brunson on the free agent point guard market.
Subjectively, Rubio was an amazing locker room presence last season. He had instant chemistry with Kevin Love, was at least a small part of Darius Garland’s breakout season, and was a constant in so many of the Cavs’ best lineups. He can provide value even off the court, and when he returns to it he will be set up to far exceed this contract value.
All-Value Free Agent Team – Shooting Guard: Donte DiVincenzo, Golden State Warriors
The honorable mention at shooting guard for the All-Value Free Agent Team is Gary Payton II, which is pertinent because the winner is the guard who replaced him. Donte DiVincenzo was somewhat surprisingly dumped by the Milwaukee Bucks to bring in an injured third center, and then even more surprisingly let go by the Sacramento Kings.
He signed with the Golden State Warriors for just $4.5 million this season and $9.2 million total over two years. DiVincenzo had a rocky start to the year after returning from a major lower-body injury, and it was only at the very end that his numbers started to come around. If he is anything approximating healthy, his skillset fits in perfectly on the defending champions.
All-Value Free Agent Team – Small Forward: Bruce Brown, Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have three of the most sublime offensive difference-makers in the league in two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. What they need to build around them are difference-making defensive players. Aaron Gordon was one such player, and now Bruce Brown is in line to try to be the next.
He is tough, strong and savvy with the versatility to defend multiple options. He signed a two-year, $13.3 million deal to join their group of contenders, and he could play a significant role during the season and through a playoff run. The Nuggets with Brown and the newly-acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have the potential to trot out an extremely formidable defensive lineup even with Jokic in the mix.
All-Value Free Agent Team – Power Forward: T.J. Warren, Brooklyn Nets
The classic path to getting an undervalued free agent is to sign a player coming off of a significant injury. That’s how the Cavs got Ricky Rubio at such a low cost, and it contributed to the Warriors signing DiVincenzo this year and Otto Porter Jr. last year.
T.J. Warren missed nearly the entire last two seasons due to injury, so it was no surprise that he had to sign a low-value make-good contract. The Brooklyn Nets took a chance on Warren, but if that chance pays off they will have a forward to back up Kevin Durant and perhaps play alongside him, a talented scorer and rebounder who averaged 19.8 points per game in his last complete season.
All-Value Free Agent Team – Center: Isaiah Hartenstein, New York Knicks
Another path to value is when a player has a breakout season after signing multiple deals as a fringe roster player. That’s what is going on with Isaiah Hartenstein, a center who signed with the New York Knicks. After signing multiple minimum contracts to stick around the league, Hartenstein had a great year with the LA Clippers last season but could parlay that only into a $7.8 million deal for this season, $16 million overall over two years.
Last season on the Clippers Hartenstein was a great rebounder, shot-blocker and finisher. He finished with 3.4 estimated wins, which according to our value system would mean he is worth $11.6 million, well above what he is making per year.
Ricky Rubio, Donte DiVincenzo, Bruce Brown, T.J. Warren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Together these players will make just $26.5 million this next season, but will provide their team with production well past that. Keep an eye on the “All-Value” team and see how much they give to their teams this year.