The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t supposed to be good last season. After winning 22 games in 2020-21, most prognosticators thought a modest improvement of a few games was all that was in store for the wine and gold. Boy were they all wrong.
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model thought they would win 25 games. The ESPN Forecast thought they would win 26. And on and on. Instead, the Cavs established themselves early on in the playoff mix, were at one point riding at the top of the Eastern Conference in net rating, and a late injury-riddled slump still saw them finish with 44 wins and an eighth-place finish in the East.
The Cavs made a gigantic leap last season. What does recent NBA history for other similar teams teach us about whether the Cavs can sustain their success?
The Cavs’ offseason suggested some improvement, but certainly not anything to this level. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen both made leaps, Evan Mobley was an instant-impact defender as a rookie, and additions like Ricky Rubio and Lauri Markkanen both played significant parts.
To look past wins to net rating, a better indicator of how good a team actually was, the Cavs went from a -8.3 net rating in 2020-21 to a +2.1 net rating last season, a leap of 10.4 points per 100 possessions. That improvement year-to-year is the fourth-largest of the past 25 years.
Big jumps can seem set in stone to some people, an indicator of how the team will now perform. They seem like an outlier to others, and an indicator of regression set to come. Which will it be for the Cavs? Let’s look at the Cavs’ future from the angle of those three teams who had larger leaps in net rating than the Cavs to see what history tells us about what to expect.
Will Cavs sustain their big leap? What recent teams made the same leap?
Three teams made a larger season-to-season increase in net rating than the Cleveland Cavaliers did last year. Those teams are the 2007-08 Boston Celtics (+14.3), the 1997-98 San Antonio Spurs (+13.2) and the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns (+10.8).
The Celtics went from a rebuilding team to a sudden contender with the additions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. They won just 24 games in 2006-07, then won 66 games the following season behind the “Big 3” and beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. Their leap was triggered by the sudden addition of in-their-prime star talent.
The Spurs had a similar influx of talent, but perhaps one more similar to what the Cavs experienced. In the 1996-97 season star center David Robinson went down early in the year to injury, and the organization tanked their way to the first overall pick. They selected Tim Duncan, who as a rookie stepped in and was a two-way force immediately alongside the healthy Robinson. The Spurs went from 20 wins to 56 and lost in the second round of the playoffs.
Finally, the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns took yet another path to a seismic leap. In 2003-04 the Suns won 29 games, and partway through the season, Mike D’Antoni took over as head coach. That summer D’Antoni instituted his fast-paced system, the team signed free agent point guard Steve Nash, and the result was a 62-win season and the start of the “Seven Seconds or Less” era.
Will Cavs sustain their big leap? What happened to the other teams
The Boston Celtics were the team most unlike the Cleveland Cavaliers in this group, putting together a trio of aging stars to try and win a title. It worked, and the Celtics made it to the NBA Finals twice and were a perennial contender for years before they started to break down and Boston moved its stars for draft picks.
The San Antonio Spurs were probably the most similar, adding a rookie in the draft who looks like a future superstar. Tim Duncan was an All-Star in his first year, which Evan Mobley was not, but he was also three years older than Mobley. The Spurs not only sustained their success, but they built one of the all-time dynasties in sports history, winning five titles over the next 17 seasons.
Finally, the Phoenix Suns also had a long-term foundation to build on with Steve Nash, who won two MVPs while running and gunning in the desert. While both the Sputs and Celtics won at least one title, the Suns never broke through, but they won at least 50 games in five of the next six seasons.
Will Cavs sustain their big leap? Outlook for the Cavs
The Cavaliers won 33 games in the 2013-14 season, and then added LeBron James and Kevin Love that summer. They would win 53 the following season and make the NBA Finals for four straight years. That is the kind of super-team-assembly from the Cavs that best matches what the Boston Celtics accomplished in 2007-08 and beyond.
It’s the San Antonio Spurs who are more instructive for us here. They sustained their success from the big jump for two major reasons: the immediate dominance of Tim Duncan, and the steady presence of another Hall of Famer in David Robinson.
If Evan Mobley is not simply good, but takes a major step forward next season, the Cavs have an excellent chance to sustain their success. Mobley was incredibly versatile last year as a defender but was raw on offense; more consistency as a secondary shot creator would raise the Cavs’ floor and keep them relevant.
The other factor is having a bona fide second star in place, and the Cavs might just have that in Darius Garland. If he can consolidate his growth and put together a full season of his best stretches from last year, the combination of Garland and Mobley will set this team up for sustained success.
One last note from our historical survey. The 1997-98 San Antonio Spurs were the second-ranked defensive team in the league, and the next year they were first. The 2007-08 Boston Celtics were the best defensive team, and were second the following year. The 2004-05 Phoenix Suns were the #1 offensive team, and the following year were second. Being absolutely elite at one end of the court gives you a calling card to build on.
The Cavs last year were fifth in defense; if they can lean into that key attribute and once again finish in the top-5 on defense, it will be very difficult for them not to sustain their success. Between Mobley, Garland, Jarett Allen and a host of supporting players, the future in Cleveland is bright, and NBA history suggests it might stay that way.