The Cleveland Cavaliers have three of their starters written in stone. Perhaps one day they will need to decide between starting Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen at the 5, but for now they’ll lock down the power forward and center spots. Darius Garland will start at point guard for the Cavs for hopefully the rest of his career.
That leaves two decisions to make. One is at shooting guard, where the Cavs have as many as five options. The other is at small forward, where Lauri Markkanen was the surprise starter a year ago to form the famed “Tower City” lineup of three 7-footers. He is likely penciled in by the coaching staff to start again this year, if not written down in ink, but should they consider another candidate?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are likely going to start Lauri Markkanen at small forward. Instead, the Cavs should start Dean Wade for these reasons.
Yes, yes they should. J.B. Bickerstaff deserves credit for going outside of the box last year and finding a way to maximize the talent available in the starting lineup. He needs to show that same confidence and ingenuity this season and start someone over Markkanen at the 3: Dean Wade.
If starting Markkanen was bold last year, this would be even bolder. Wade is an undrafted fourth-year player on a non-guaranteed deal. Markkanen was the seventh-overall pick and is on a lucrative deal. Yet for at least three reasons, Wade is the clear choice over Markkanen. Let’s evaluate why.
3 reasons Dean Wade should start for Cavs: Success of his lineups
There is no one outside of the Wade family and perhaps our own John Suchan who thinks that Dean Wade is a more talented player overall than Lauri Markkanen, but the results from the past season show that Wade is a better fit around the stars of the starting lineup.
Let’s look at lineups where Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are all on the court. The starting lineup with Isaac Okoro at the 2 and Markkanen at the 3? An extremely strong +10.2 in 455 competitive possessions per Cleaning the Glass, a clear indicator that Bickerstaff was on to something putting that grouping together.
Now take that same group and swap Dean Wade for Markkanen? in 218 possessions, still a hearty sample size, that net rating jumps to +19.3, in the 88th percentile of all lineups leaguewide. And if you narrow things down to lineups that saw at least 100 minutes the Cavs’ group with Wade checks in at sixth overall. Dean Wade plus starters equal dominance.
It’s a similar story with Collin Sexton inserted into Isaac Okoro’s spot. Markkanen at the 3 with that group was +2.1 in 140 possessions early last season, while Dean Wade with that same group clocked in at +8.8 over 76. Cedi Osman at the 2? Wade was at +20 in a handful of possessions. Wade’s the best 3-and-D player on the team, and he makes for a seamless fit with the games of Garland, Allen and Mobley. He makes good things happen when he is on the court.
3 reasons Dean Wade should start for Cavs: Defense
The Cavaliers have a defensive phenom on their hands in Evan Mobley, and when you pair him with an excellent rim protector in Jarrett Allen you get a top-tier defensive backline that provides the foundation for a great defense.
Yet that foundation is eroded a bit if the other three players are all subpar defenders, and that’s the reality the Cavs are starting at if they start Caris LeVert at the 2 and Lauri Markkanen at the 3. That doesn’t mean Lauri is a pushover, but he’s not a value-add on defense. Dean Wade definitely is.
He also has the size and strength to defend combo forwards and big wings on the opposing team. Mobley is amazing in space but would be maximized in a role where he can provide help, so starting Wade allows the Cavs to stick him on the team’s best perimeter creator. Playing the likes of Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler leaves Markkanen in a tough spot; Wade can step in and take them on.
He’s not a lockdown guy on the perimeter, and he can’t stay with the fastest guards, but he has better foot speed than Markkanen and is solid enough against the best big creators the league has to offer. He’s also strong enough that the Cavs can still switch some of the actions between bigger players and he can survive inside for a time. Especially if the Cavs move away from Isaac Okoro at the 2 and go with LeVert or Sexton, they need a better defensive option at the 3. Dean Wade is that guy.
3 reasons Dean Wade should start for Cavs: Shooting
The primary reason that the Cavs started Lauri Markkanen last season was that they needed to get shooting on the court if they were going to otherwise play two bigs in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Therefore they moved the reluctant-shooting Isaac Okoro to the 2 and started Lauri at the 3.
Last season Markkanen, known for being a stretch big, the Finnish Sharpshooter, the player started specifically because he could stretch the floor, shot only 35.8 percent from 3-point range. You may think that was simply a poor shooting season and that he will shoot better this year, and you are probably right, but for his career Markkanen is just a 36.4 percent shooter. That’s it.
Dean Wade is not a sniper, but he shot better than Markkanen last season (by a sliver at 35.9 percent) and for their careers (36.5 percent). Essentially they are the same level of shooter. Perhaps Markkanen has more gravity, but unless he puts together a scorching season soon teams will begin to treat him like the middling shooter he is.
The point is that Wade can approximate or even slightly beat Markkanen’s shooting, and brings a lot more in terms of defense. Starting Okoro or Lamar Stevens brings defense at the expense of shooting; starting Kevin Love or Lauri Markkanen brings shooting at the expense of defense. Starting Dean Wade brings both.
The Cavs are likely to start Markkanen, and that should be fine. He has a higher ceiling than Wade and provides some things that Wade doesn’t. Hopefully, however, the Cavs pay close attention to how effective Wade is and provide him opportunities to either start or close, because when he plays with the best players on this team, the Cavs soar.