The Cleveland Cavaliers have almost entirely concluded their business for this offseason. After taking Ochai Agbaji, Isaiah Mobley and a pair of stashes in the NBA Draft, they signed Ricky Rubio, Raul Neto and Robin Lopez to free agency deals to fill out their roster.
They now have 15 players under contract without agreeing to a new deal for their top free agent this season. Collin Sexton hit restricted free agency this summer after missing most of last season due to injury. While the rest of the league has gobbled up the vast majority of solid rotation players for next season, Sexton remains without a contract.
As NBA Free Agency reaches its second week, Collin Sexton still hasn’t signed a new deal. What are three theories on why Sexton isn’t signed yet?
Restricted free agents are most of the good players still on the market; league rules allow their current team to match any offer given by another team. That slows things down, so it’s not ultimately shocking to see Sexton still on the market. That being said, it’s still noteworthy to some level at the lack of interest in Sexton thus far.
While the answer to his frigid market could be any of a number of things, the following three overarching reasons encompass most of the best options. Which of these is the biggest driving force for a delayed contract with Sexton, either with the Cavs or another team?
Cavs Free Agency: Why Sexton isn’t signed yet – Too far apart on money
Last autumn the Cavs and Collin Sexton discussed a new deal during the extension window for players entering their fourth season. Sexton was looking for something close to the max, while the Cavs were planning to pay Sexton like a solid bench performer.
Then the season happened, and the Cavs continued to move forward. Darius Garland blew up and made the All-Star Game, Sexton was hurt 13 games in and missed the rest of the season, and the Cavs traded for Caris LeVert and drafted Ochai Agbaji as options at the 2.
Cleveland is highly unlikely to cave at this point and pay Sexton like a high-end starter; if he returns, the question is how low he is willing to concede on the average annual value and whether he wants a four-year deal or gets back on the market sooner.
Handing Sexton a substantial deal hamstrings this team’s ability to build around Garland and Evan Mobley, and the combination of Garland and Sexton doesn’t work against most high-end competition. If the Cavs continue to hold fast around, say, $13 million per season, and Sexton wants $20, how do they meet in the middle and find a working compromise for both?
Cavs Free Agency: Why Sexton isn’t signed yet – RFA market waiting on Durant
Kevin Durant is one of the 15 best players of all time; prior to this past season I ranked him 15th exactly. He is still in his prime, playing at an MVP level when he was available last season despite the chaos of the Brooklyn Nets and their season. Now that he has requested a trade out of Brooklyn, certain parts of the NBA have paused to await the results.
One of those parts has been the restricted free agency market. The biggest names on the board, including center DeAndre Ayton and Sexton, are still unsigned. That could be because they could be pieces moving in a deal for Durant. The Cavs probably aren’t going to send Sexton, Evan Mobley and salary filler to the Nets for Durant, but the Phoenix Suns could use Ayton in a deal, especially one involving a third or fourth team, and that means Ayton can’t sign a new deal now.
With Ayton in limbo, a trickle-down effect is in order. The few remaining teams with significant cap space, including the San Antonio Spurs and Indiana Pacers, may be waiting to see if Ayton will be free to sign a max deal with them. If he in turn is off the table for sure, they may pivot to a plan B – and give Sexton a significant deal.
The odds of Sexton being inside of a Durant deal itself are slim, but the engine that could lead to Sexton getting a deal the Cavs will be forced to match hasn’t yet left the station. Eventually, if the Durant saga continues to stretch out, teams may have to move forward without him. For now, everyone is waiting.
Cavs Free Agency: Why Sexton isn’t signed yet – The Cap Space Plan
Currently, the Cleveland Cavaliers have eight players under contract for the 2023-24 season; when Ricky Rubio’s new deal becomes official, that will move to nine. Kevin Love and his large deal come off the books, as do Caris LeVert, Dylan Windler and Dean Wade. Robin Lopez and Raul Neto are only under contract for one year.
That means that right now, the Cavs could open up as much as $47 million in cap space next summer, and more if they waive Lamar Stevens or find new homes for Isaac Okoro or Cedi Osman. That’s enough to make a run at another max player to fill out this core.
That player could be a veteran, Khris Middleton or Harrison Barnes. It could be a restricted free agent offer to De’Andre Hunter or RJ Barret, or someone crazy like Jordan Poole. The wildest possibility of all that Cavs fans can’t stop talking about? LeBron James, coming home to The Land one last time at the end of his career to try and win another title.
To keep those max-level possibilities open, the Cavs could be hoping to either lowball Sexton or even maneuver him into taking just his $7.23 million qualifying offer and coming completely off the books next season — or having a smaller cap hold to then pay him to a higher level as a super-sub on a team where Darius Garland, LeBron James, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are the starters.
Collin Sexton could just be taking his time in general, or waiting for the Cavs to work out a sign-and-trade with the Indiana Pacers for Ricky Rubio to carve out more space, or be part of negotiations for a sign-and-trade to an unexpected location. For now, however, the lack of activity is likely due to one or more of the above factors and sets the stage for an interesting resolution in the coming days.