The 2022 NBA Draft was the most exciting one we have had in many years. From the top, all the way to the bottom, most picks came down to the wire, and there was no real consensus on who would select what prospect, and when. After the initial shock of the Orlando Magic’s number one overall pick being Paolo Banchero, there were a couple more surprises in store for the viewer. However, the Cleveland Cavalilers seemingly knew for a while that former Kansas Jayhawk guard Ochai Agbaji could be their guy at 14.
Right after the Charlotte Hornets drafted Jalen Duren, who would eventually be sent to the Detroit Pistons, with the 13th pick, the Cavaliers handed their card in with Agbaji’s name on it. The former Big-12 Player of the Year is a great spot-up shooter and fits a desperate need for shooting on the Cavalier roster. But, the selection of Agbaji is a bit of a change of pace in the Cavalier front office’s line of thinking.
In 2019, the Cavs drafted Darius Garland with the fifth overall pick, after playing only a handful of games at Vanderbilt because of a meniscus injury. He was looked at as more of a longer-term project than other prospects at that spot.
In 2020, the Cavs selected Isaac Okoro with the fifth overall pick as well. Okoro has been decent in a Cavaliers uniform, but it seems like he may never reach his potential. Or at least not with the Cavs.
The drafting of the 22-year old Agbaji is a bit of a surprise for Koby Altman, considering the previous three high Cavalier first-round picks were made on longer-term projects; it’s tough to have thought Evan Mobley would be as impactful as he was in Year 1. With that being said, it clearly means the Cavaliers are ready to win right now.
So, with that in mind, we’ll take a look at two realistic expectations for Agbaji in his first season with the Wine and Gold.
Realistic expectation #1: Shoot nearly 40% from three, mostly in catch-and-shoot situations
Cavaliers President of Basketball Operations Koby Altman recently had the following to say about Agbaji’s shooting in an introductory draft presser on Friday, via Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com.
"“(He) brings a skillset that we don’t necessarily have,” Altman said. “That skillset is going to be utilized, we hope, right away. He can really shoot. He’s got a really quick trigger. You can run him off screens. The shooting piece was important. The fact he can play wing, he can guard wings, is great.”"
One thing that has been very high on the organization’s wish list this offseason has indeed been shooting. After being without Collin Sexton for most of the year because of injury, the only three-point threats on the team were point guard Darius Garland, guard Caris LeVert (later on), forwards Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love and wing Cedi Osman. There’s definitely streakiness with Osman and LeVert, though.
With Agbaji now in the fold, he should improve that area, right away, as Koby Altman pointed out. In his final year at Kansas he attempted 6.5 three point attempts per game, and was hitting them at almost a 41% rate, primarily via catch-and-shoots.
With how much of the league is shooting three-pointers, Agbaji will not have trouble finding more than a couple open shots per game. His shooting form is great, with a solid base, and quick release to get the ball out of his hands before shot-blockers approach him.
In 29 of the 39 games he played at Kansas last year, he had multiple three-pointers. He’s not the most explosive or fast guard, but he gets the job done when shooting the ball. With that being said, I was tempted to put 40% here, considering he was a lottery pick. But, I’ll set the expectations a bit lower, so nearly 40%; I’ll go in the 38-plus percent ball park.
Realistic expectation #2: Average at least 2.0 assists per game, and have his role gradually increase
While shooting definitely was a need for the Cavaliers, playmaking was also a huge need, and Agbaji doesn’t necessarily address that. In fact, Agbaji only had a 8.7% assist rate this past season, while being 22 years old. However, the reason he wasn’t that big of a playmaker at Kansas was because he played his role as a scoring guard.
In the NBA, I would expect passing to become easier for him. Not only will he find himself open more often in the NBA than he did in college, but he will find passing easier. When he’s on the court with a guy like Darius Garland, who’s a tremendous playmaker, teams can’t focus on Garland with Agbaji in the corner, or with Markkanen in the corner. Thus, when he starts hitting his threes at a consistent rate, teams will then start to defend toward him, leaving driving and passing lanes open for the ball-handler.
With the help around him, I would say that averaging at or over two assists per game is a rookie is a very realistic expectation. The talent around him is going to be much improved, and I have a feeling Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who are two underrated passers, are going to love playing with Agbaji.
If teams double them in the post, Agbaji can make them pay, and if they don’t send a double, Allen or Mobley have shown they know how to make teams pay. Simply because of the talent around him, two assists per game is not too much to ask.
Overall, looking back on the draft, maybe it really wasn’t all that exciting. I mean other than Banchero going first, and Keegan Murray going fourth, it played out pretty much like I expected. The Agbaji pick is still a little bit worrisome in my opinion, considering the Cavaliers have heavily invested in future talent.
That said, as Fedor pointed out in his article, the Cavs could be following the same blueprint the Memphis Grizzlies did when drafting Desmond Bane in the 2020 NBA Draft. Agbaji’s role should steadily increase as his year progresses, and he gets more comfortable, also.