For any team in the 2022 NBA Draft, the question of what to do with their draft pick looms large. Hitting on a pick can set a team up for success for a long time; missing on a pick, which is unfortunately easy to do given the uncertainty and vagaries of drafting incredibly young players and banking on their future, can set a team back in a significant way.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have experienced both sides of that coin. They navigated the uncertainty of the 2019 NBA Draft and walked away with Darius Garland at pick No. 5, who has blossomed into an All-Star in just his third season. The Cavs then whiffed on their next two first-round picks, although not necessarily due to poor talent evaluation; Dylan Windler has been beset by injury and unable to develop, and Kevin Porter Jr. flunked his way off the team due to character issues.
The Cavs could trade their pick this year for veteran help, but here are three reasons they should instead keep the 14th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft
That uncertainty looms on the Cavs as the 2022 NBA Draft approaches. They didn’t expect to be picking in the first round after trading away this year’s lottery-protected pick to the Indiana Pacers for Caris LeVert; missing the playoffs meant retaining the pick, but also taking back on the burden of how to use it.
The Cavs could absolutely decide to trade this pick again, something they can do on draft night, to add veteran help to a team with a lot of forward momentum. They could also hold on to it and roll the dice on a prospect at pick No. 14. Here are three reasons they should keep the pick and draft a player at 14 in Thursday’s NBA Draft.
3 reasons Cavs should keep 14th pick: Team is playing the long game
Darius Garland is 22 years old, entering his fourth season in the league. Evan Mobley just turned 21 this past week. Jarrett Allen is 24 years old and will be for the entirety of next season. Lauri Markkanen, Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro are all 25 years old or younger. If Collin Sexton sticks around he won’t turn 24 until 2023.
The core of this team is incredibly young. That they were able to compete for a playoff berth last season with such a young starting lineup was impressive and bodes well for their future development. Yet their struggles down the stretch also illustrate an important truth: as a young team, this group isn’t ready to contend right at this moment.
Trading their first-round pick for another veteran will likely help them win more games this season, but it isn’t going to help them contend for a title. No one short of Stephen Curry would. Evan Mobley needs more than 69 games under his belt. Garland needs a full season running the show and overcoming how defenses scheme against him. Jarrett Allen needs to show he truly is the dominant two-way center he showed himself to be last season.
There are a number of highly encouraging signs that point to this team being really good for a really long time. They are young, most are under contract or team control for a long time, and they will have their best chance to compete a few years down the road. Drafting a player is a better long-term play, as that player can grow into their role and be ready to contribute when this team needs him.
The Cavs need to make sure they don’t rush this growth; drafting a player at 14 helps to keep them on the right trajectory at the right speed.
3 reasons Cavs should keep 14th pick: Low cost
The 14th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft will make around $3.22 million next season (depending on how they negotiate off of that rookie scale number) and roughly $15 million over the course of a four-year rookie contract before becoming a restricted free agent, at which point the Cavs would maintain team control over offering an extension or matching a salary sheet.
Flipping the 14th pick for a veteran almost certainly means giving up matching salary from a player on the roster, and then paying that veteran player their market value, with the likelihood of unrestricted free agency looming in that player’s imminent future.
For example, at the trade deadline, the Cavs traded a protected first and a lucrative second-round pick for Caris LeVert, who makes $18.79 million next season; that’s third-most on the team behind only Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love. LeVert then hits unrestricted free agency next summer, putting pressure on the team to either extend him or trade him again.
A rookie selected at 14 is none of those things. They will be a small addition to the Cavs’ cap sheet, allowing them plenty of flexibility over the next few seasons before a decision has to be made. Those millions of dollars can then be used somewhere else, either paying players such as LeVert or Collin Sexton or adding key free agents.
3 reasons Cavs should keep 14th pick: Upside of finding a star
The Cleveland Cavaliers have never had the 14th pick in the draft, but other teams have had some incredible luck with the pick, both throughout NBA history and in recent years. Just within the past five years Bam Adebayo and Michael Porter Jr. have gone on to sign maximum rookie extensions after going 14th in the draft, and Moses Moody looks like he will be a long-term starter on the wing for the Golden State Warriors (the rich get richer).
The 15th pick has been even more of a jackpot, as Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steve Nash are all-time greats who were drafted just outside the lottery (and, if you follow the logic, were available at 14 in their respective drafts). In the past 15 years, the 16-20 picks have yielded Jrue Holiday, John Collins, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and current Cavaliers player Caris LeVert. Jarrett Allen went 22nd.
The point is that there are stars available at pick No. 14 in nearly every draft, and not just those never-see-it-coming players like Draymond Green or Jordan Poole that were never in the mix at 14 (anyone wonder why the Warriors keep winning titles?). Most likely the Cavs will draft a rotation player; perhaps they will draft a complete bust or a plus starter. But maybe, just maybe, they will hit on a star. That upside is worth chasing when this is likely the last time the Cavs will pick this high in the draft for a long time.
There may be the perfect deal out there that involves trading the No. 14 pick. Some of those deals would be worth it to add a talented veteran player. Yet there are compelling reasons to keep the pick, sort through the noise and draft the best available prospect at 14. That option brings time, money and upside to the Cavs.