The Cleveland Cavaliers have mined the ranks of incoming basketball talent to add a number of players to their current roster. Collin Sexton (8th), Darius Garland (5th), Isaac Okoro (5th) and Evan Mobley (3rd) represent top-10 picks from each of the last four NBA Drafts.
This year will most likely see that streak end, as the Cavs’ strong season saw them finish eighth in the Eastern Conference and land 14th in the lottery order after losing their two Play-In Tournament games. Most likely Cleveland will choose a player at 14th to try to fill in the final gaps in this young core.
If the Cavs land a top-4 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night, how should they order the very best players available?
Most likely is not absolutely, though, and the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night will ultimately dictate exactly where they land. When the ping pong balls are spun and the draft slots selected, there is a 2.4 percent chance the Cavs leap up into the Top 4. That sort of leap, which evokes memories of a similar leap to No. 1 in the Kyrie Irving draft, could mean adding another elite prospect to an already talented group.
Let’s dig into that slim possibility, that 1-in-41 chance that mathematically happens every so often even if it seems like a massive longshot. What if the Cavs do make the leap into the Top 4? Who should they take at No. 1, and so on for each spot? In other words, who are the top players on their Big Board in this draft – how would they rank them, and why?
Cavs 2022 NBA Draft Big Board No. 1: Jabari Smith Jr., Forward, Auburn
This is not the 2019 NBA Draft, when Zion Williamson was the consensus No. 1 overall pick; nor is it even last season, when a few draft analysts and teams seemed to value Evan Mobley or Jalen Green first but the general opinion was that Cade Cunningham would and should go first overall. This season there are as many as five players who could go first, and clearly three players in Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren with a strong possibility to be that first name called.
The slight problem for the Cavs is that their greatest need, a two-way wing with shot creation abilities, is not represented in that top tier. Does that mean they reach for a riskier prospect, or a more unknown one, a player such as AJ Griffin or Shaedon Sharpe? Perhaps, but this front office went talent-over-fit last year in taking Evan Mobley, so we can assume they would do the same again this year as well.
That ultimately means Jabari Smith Jr. lands at the top of their draft board. The 6’10” Smith was one of college basketball’s best players last season on one of its best teams, lighting up opponents with a smooth jumper and plenty of scoring tricks. He doesn’t project as an elite creator with the ball in his hands but he can get his own shot, and he would be a devastating pick-and-pop combination with a guard like Darius Garland.
Defensively Smith is a beast, with a high motor and the length and instincts to generate steals and some weakside blocks. In essence, Smith could be a better version on both ends of what Lauri Markkanen provided this season, a tall stretch-big playing the 3. His weaknesses as a rim protector would be swallowed up by playing ahead of Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and that frontcourt trio would be absolutely nasty on defense. Offensively Smith’s shot could provide the same manner of spacing that Markkanen’s did. It’s not the most seamless fit, but it looks like it could work, and the talent level would be sky-high.
Cavs 2022 NBA Draft Big Board No. 2: Paolo Banchero, Big, Duke
Paolo Banchero may be the most NBA-ready player in this draft, and perhaps to come out of the draft in some years. He is a 6’10” scoring machine, with the handle and scoring bag of a guard but the size of a big. The secondary shot creator that the Cavs were looking for all of last season could join them via the draft in the form of Banchero.
The fit of Banchero at the 3 is trickier than Smith, so he may have to come off the bench as the backup 4 behind Evan Mobley. His size would make him a decent fit with Mobley, taking on the larger frontcourt players to let Mobley rove more. Offensively it would be a punishing combination, and ultimately Banchero’s talent should win out.
Cavs 2022 NBA Draft Big Board No. 3: Chet Holmgren, Big, Gonzaga
This is the trickiest decision of all; if that Cavs land at No. 3 and the draft board plays out like this, who should they take at No. 3? Chet Holmgren is a generational talent but also an incredibly unique player who doesn’t really fit on the Cavs; they already have the lanky modern-big analytical darling in Evan Mobley. Could the two co-exist? Or do the Cavs trade out of this spot to find a player who better fits their roster?
It’s a tough call. If they were to take Holmgren and bet on talent, perhaps his shooting and passing are enough to let him survive in the Markkanen role as a jumbo 3; if any team were willing to try it the Cavs would be it. They could lean into zone looks or switch-everything big combinations, and offensively he and Mobley would run some bizarre but potentially lethal two-man game looks. It might not work, but if it did it would be insane.
Cavs 2022 NBA Draft Big Board No. 4: Shaedon Sharpe, Wing, Kentucky
Here is the first deviation from consensus, as most places have Purdue guard Jaden Ivey in a clear top-4 (two weeks ago we placed him fourth but in a tier with Sharpe). The roster’s need for a wing finally wins out, however, and Shaedon Sharpe (ostensibly “from Kentucky” despite never playing in a game) leaps a spot to fourth.
One of the more raw and unknown prospects in the lottery mix, Sharpe has a smooth shooting stroke and plenty of scoring chops. Defensively he looks like a positive as well, with great length and on-ball instincts. He has some development to do, but there is a massive ton of upside, and if he hits he could absolutely be the missing piece of this core to help take it to new heights. He fits in a way none of the other top prospects do.
Cavs 2022 NBA Draft Big Board No. 5: Jaden Ivey, Guard, Purdue
Jaden Ivey doesn’t fall far, as he still ends up at No. 5. There is something to be side for elevating a few other players above him for fit-related reasons, but at the end of the day, Ivey’s talent and upside are too great to pass on more than once or twice. His shot creation, handle and burst would give the Cavs two elite attacking guards. This year’s NBA playoffs have demonstrated the value of having multiple on-ball creators, and this would give the Cavs two or as many as three if Collin Sexton is re-signed.
The problems are on the other end, where defensively the combination of Ivey and Darius Garland would be atrocious, and potentially never get better. No team has won at a high level with two absolute sieves in the backcourt; even this year’s Golden State Warriors have been reluctant to start Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole together. And if Sexton is already on the team, do they really need to spend a top-5 draft pick on a slightly-taller version of the same player, especially if that height appears to bring no extra defensive impact?
However the Cavs choose to order the top players in the draft, riding that 2.4 percent chance into another blue-chip prospect would be an exciting moment for the team and its fans. This team is ready to rise even further next season; will they do so with yet another top-10 pick on board?