It has not been a great month or so for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Losing the elite rim protection of Jarrett Allen for an extended stretch, and the do-it-all defensive exuberance of Evan Mobley for the past half-dozen, have completely amputated the legs of their once-great defense.
With that defensive collapse has come a drop down the standings, as the Cavs have struggled to get stops against elite teams and tanking teams alike. They most recently lost to the last-place Orlando Magic, the ugly capstone to an 8-16 slide, beginning just prior to the All-Star Break, that saw the Cavs go from third place in the Eastern Conference down to seventh.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s Elo forecast, their odds of making the playoffs on February 10th were 98 percent, and they had a projected record of 51-31. Now sitting at 43-37, the Cavs winning out would get them to just 45 wins. Their playoff odds have plummeted to 53 percent, and they are locked into the play-in tournament.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are locked into the play-in tournament. What are the odds they finish in each of the four spots at the end of the season?
With just a few days to go, the four East play-in teams are set. Cleveland, the Brooklyn Nets, the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets will make up the four-team tournament in some configuration. The Cavs can still finish anywhere in the 7-10 range and play any of those teams. What are the odds the Cavs will fall into each slot, and what should fans be watching for over these final two games?
Breaking down the Cavs’ play-in odds: Claiming Seventh
The most likely spot for the Cavaliers remains seventh place, their current spot…but just barely. According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Cavs have a 42 percent chance of landing at seventh. That’s more than any other single spot, but overall it’s more likely the Cavs drop than stay at the top of the four-team tournament.
The single most important game to determine where the Cavs fall is likely to be Friday night’s showdown in Brooklyn against the Nets, who are just a game back of Cleveland. The winner of that game will secure the tiebreaker. If Cleveland loses they will be tied with the Nets, who play the moribund Indiana Pacers in the last game of the season; essentially, lose Friday night and the seventh seed is gone. If Cleveland wins, they will be 2 games up and have a great chance at hosting a play-in game.
There is also Atlanta to pay attention to in the race for seventh. They are just one game back of the Cavs and own the tiebreaker. If the Cavs beat the Nets but lose to the Bucks, Atlanta could knock them out of seventh by winning both of their remaining games: Friday in Miami, and Sunday in Houston. Charlotte has no functional path to the seventh seed, although it’s technically still possible if someone goes back in time and steps on a butterfly, or something like that.
Win out, and it’s the seventh seed. Beat Brooklyn and lose to Milwaukee and Atlanta has a small chance to catch them. Lose to Brooklyn and beat Milwaukee, and the Cavs would need the Nets and Hawks to lose at least one game.
Breaking down the Cavs’ play-in odds: Eight vs Nine
If the Cavs lose to the Nets Friday, which is the most likely outcome, they will be in line to fall below the Nets to eighth of ninth. Collectively they have a 55 percent chance of falling to one of these two seeds, making their path to the top-8 even murkier.
The easiest way to get to eighth is to beat the Nets on Friday, lose to the Bucks and have the Hawks win out. With the Miami Heat all but locked into the top seed they could rest many of their veterans against the Hawks on Friday, clearing a path for the scorching-hot Trae Young to lead the Hawks to the seventh seed.
That being said, in their current state there is little reason to think the Cavs will beat the Nets on Friday. If they lose to the Nets but beat a potentially-resting Milwaukee team on Sunday, then a 1-1 weekend from the Hawks would also secure eighth. That would mean two consecutive games where the Cavs would be win-and-in, a better spot than ninth.
Falling to ninth happens with a Nets loss and Hawks sweep of their final two games, or the more likely 0-2 finish from the Cavs and the Hawks winning at least one game. This locks the Cavs into ninth, assuming the Hornets do not win out.
Breaking down the Cavs’ play-in odds: Can they fall to 10th?
Currently, again per PlayoffStatus.com, the Cavs have just a four percent chance of falling to tenth and being forced to win two consecutive road games to make it into the playoff field. That number seems too low for a scenario that is filling the stomachs of many Cleveland fans with dread.
We outlined last week the possibility of a “worst-case scenario” for the Cavs, and a couple of Charlotte losses plus the beatdown of the New York Knicks this past weekend have helped them avoid that. Unfortunately, the possibility of falling to tenth is still alive and well.
If Cleveland loses its last two games (it will be favored to do just that unless the Bucks sit multiple stars) they will likely fall behind both Brooklyn and Atlanta. The Charlotte Hornets are 2.5 games back of the Cavs, so if they win out they will end up tied with Cleveland for that ninth spot.
The two teams played four times this season and split the season series. The tiebreaker will end up at Conference record, and if the Hornets do win out and the Cavs lose out that will be secured by Charlotte, therefore giving them homecourt in the 9-10 game with the Cavs.
That may be a blessing in disguise, as the Cavs won both games in Charlotte and lost both in Cleveland. Either way, to win any amount of games and get into the playoffs the Cavs likely need one or both of their injured big men back, and even then it will be an uphill climb against some talented teams in a competitive Eastern Conference play-in tounrnament.