Why Darius Garland has a DeMar DeRozan problem

The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a very strong start, better than anyone could have reasonably expected. They have won 23 of their first 42 games, already more wins than they totaled in 72 games last season. Their net rating of +5.1 is fourth in the entire league, and first in the Eastern Conference.

Darius Garland is leading the way offensively for the Cavs, who have lost Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio for the season. He is averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers, running the offense as basically its sole shot creator and best playmaker.

Darius Garland hopes to make his first All-Star Game leading the upstart Cleveland Cavaliers. Why might DeMar DeRozan prevent him from getting there?

The best offensive player on a clear playoff team is almost always in line for an All-Star berth, and Garland certainly has the resume of such a player. He is eighth in the league in assists per game, has averaged over 20 points per game since Sexton went down, and just recorded his first career triple-double.

Garland is absolutely the kind of player who deserves All-Star consideration. That being said, they don’t gift wrap All-Star berths no matter how good your team’s underlying metrics are or how important you are to your team. And Garland’s path to his first career All-Star nod could be blocked by a player who is balling out in a different Midwest town: DeMar DeRozan.

The DeMar DeRozan problem

DeMar DeRozan is having a breakout season. You don’t normally say that about a 12-year veteran but the former Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs wing is having the best season of his career at 32. Now playing for the Chicago Bulls, DeRozan is scoring 26 points per game for one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Bulls have joined the Cavs as one of the league’s most surprising teams, in large part because of their offseason moves. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso have jumpstarted a backcourt that was lopsided in recent years. No longer an offense-first sieve, the Bulls are a two-way team excelling in the midst of a crazy season.

Because of the Bulls’ depth at guard and its lack of it at forward, DeRozan has played almost exclusively at power forward this season. Basketball Reference estimates DeRozan has played 78 percent of his minutes at the 4, eight percent at the 3, and a whopping 15 percent at center, likely in lineups where Derrick Jones Jr. is technically the “center” but there is no traditional big.

That is not new; the onetime shooting guard hasn’t logged minutes at the 2 since 2018-19, and it was a year further back in Toronto that a majority of his minutes came at a guard position. Cleaning the Glass says the same basic thing; 0 percent of his minutes this season came at a guard position, and 100 percent came in the frontcourt.

That should be setting up an interesting question for All-Star voters this year. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant locks to start for the East as frontcourt players, is DeRozan or Joel Embiid more deserving of the final starting spot? Let’s look at the early voting returns to see what fans are saying:

Wait, where is DeRozan? He didn’t even make the Top 10 in East frontcourt voting? No, he’s there…just let your eyes drift down to the “Guards” list. He leads the way with 1.5 million votes, absolutely crushing the competition. Why was he listed with the guards? Was it a typo?

Nope. That’s where the NBA has him listed: just alongside Zach LaVine, Trae Young and James Harden. You know, actual guards.

Given DeRozan’s play this season, if he was a guard (he is not) he would deserve to start, and because the NBA has told us he is a guard for All-Star purposes (he is not) he is a lock to start. He will dominate the fan vote and surely get enough love from the players and media to start, likely alongside some combination of the three above players.

What does that mean for Garland? Well, it’s a trickle-down effect. Move DeRozan to guard, and that is one fewer guard who can make the list. The 12-man All-Star team will contain six frontcourt players, four guards, and two “wild cards” so a maximum of six guards can make the cut.

Start DeRozan, and add in Young, Harden and LaVine, and your minimum guard spots are taken up. That leaves just two Wild Cards for any other backcourt hopefuls: Garland, Fred VanVleet, LaMelo Ball, Jaylen Brown, Bradley Beal, Jrue Holiday, Kyrie Irving. That’s a crowded field, and certainly a more deserving one than the frontcourt side. If DeRozan is listed as a guard, that’s one more deserving guard left off, one less deserving frontcourt player added in.

Will Darius Garland make the All-Star cut?

Given DeMar DeRozan is clogging things up, it makes it even more difficult for Garland to make the All-Star cut. That isn’t that bad in the grand scheme, as he looks like a player who will make multiple games as early as next season. Still, this year counts too.

National outlets aren’t giving him much love. The Athletic not only didn’t put him in the field, they didn’t include him in their honorable mentions (6 players outside of the Top 12). Seriously, they put Clint Capela above Garland. Ok, boomer.

Bleacher Report had him make the cut back before Christmas, but that was before Fred VanVleet turned into a human blow torch. They also put DeRozan in as a frontcourt player. Zach Lowe and Chris Herring picked All-Star teams on The Lowe Post podcast and neither included Garland.

Is Garland deserving? Sure, but there are 15-20 deserving players each year and only 12 slots. Sometimes that is mitigated by injury replacements, but at the end of the day good players are going to miss the cut. The league has myriad reasons to expand the rosters (more buzz in more markets, the league is twice the size of what it was when 12-man rosters were set, more international players) but they appear to like the status quo.

For now, Garland probably won’t make it. That could change with a few big games in the next week, but the sheer number of big-name guards will make it a challenge. When faced with a decision between Garland and, say, LaMelo Ball, many voters will give “Cleveland” the nod with Jarrett Allen and pick LaMelo because the Hornets don’t have another strong candidate.

Should Garland make the cut? That’s a trickier question, as while it’s easy for Cavs fans to scream “YES” there are fans in Toronto, Charlotte and Washington shouting the same for their guy with just as much confidence. Look for my All-Star team picks this weekend to see whether Garland and his fellow Cavs make the cut.