Collin Sexton is out for the year; 3 questions and answers

Collin Sexton has been a core player for the Cleveland Cavaliers for the past three-plus seasons after he was taken No. 8 overall by the Cavs in the 2018 NBA Draft. He has been their leading scorer for much of that time, including last season when he was among the 20 highest-scoring players in the league.

That was also true this season. Although the Cavs boasted a much more balanced attack, Sexton was still leading the way on November 7th, when Collin Sexton suffered a knee injury in a game against the New York Knicks. The next day it was announced that he had suffered a torn meniscus, and two weeks later we finally received a timetable: Sexton is going to miss the remainder of the season:

This was something of a worst-case scenario as far as Sexton’s return, and it means the Cavs will need to go without their high-scoring guard for the rest of a season that had begun so positively. We wrote about Sexton’s injury earlier today; check it out for a breakdown of the options Sexton was considering before undergoing surgery.

Collin Sexton will miss the remainder of the 2021-22 season after surgery to repair a torn meniscus. What questions need to be answered for the Cavs’ guard?

While the announcement that Sexton will miss the remainder of the season answers a couple of questions, it raises many more. We will tackle three of the largest ones, raising the question and then providing an answer for each one. We begin with the why.

Question: Why is Collin Sexton out for the season?

For nearly two weeks after Sexton’s injury the team (and all of the various newsbreakers) were silent concerning a timetable for his return. A number of options were before him, anywhere from a couple of weeks of rehab to season-ending surgery.

In last season’s playoffs Joel Embiid suffered a meniscus tear that was small enough that he was able to quickly return within a week to play a full seven games in a second round matchup. The silence suggested Sexton might be pursuing such a return without surgery, and reading between the lines of the Cavaliers’ press release suggests the same:

Alas, in the end Sexton appears to have been forced to choose a surgical option, and the lengthy recovery timetable tells us definitively that he had a meniscus repair surgery.

Answer: Collin Sexton underwent a meniscus repair surgery, which has the longest recovery time

If Sexton had elected for a meniscus trim, he could have made it back onto the court much sooner but faced potential long-term degradation in his knee. Instead, it appears he elected for a meniscus repair, which maximizes the cartilage in the knee but requires a significantly longer recovery time.

The good news is that most players who have a full meniscus repair return to their pre-injury production on the court. When players do have recurring knee issues, it is often because they got the meniscus trim, or that they rushed back after getting the full repair.

Recently players with meniscus injuries have been taking longer to return, giving the knee and the meniscus plenty of time to heal. Jaren Jackson Jr. took nine months to return after a meniscus injury in the NBA Bubble. James Wiseman is seven months into his recovery and is not quite cleared for 5-on-5 action.

It is somewhat interesting that Sexton has already punted on a return this season. The end of the season is five months away, which is within the recovery range for this injury. Is the location or severity of the tear such that Sexton expects a long recovery? Or is he purposefully avoiding a short comeback at the end of the season where he is not fully himself? Either way, it will be a long time until we see Sexton suit up again.

Question: How do the Cavs replace him in the rotation?

Collin Sexton is a divisive figure among fans of the Cavs and the greater basketball community. He is a prolific scorer, a hard worker and a great teammate. He is also a shaky playmaker, a poor defender and the Cavs have played significantly better with Darius Garland on the court than Sexton.

Whatever your opinion on Sexton, losing him for the season is a major loss. He was a high-minute starter who contributed more points than anyone else on decent efficiency. They don’t have another option in that vein, a high-octane offensive weapon who can create his own shot. Who will replace him?

Answer: It will be a replacement by committee

There is no one player to step in, so the Cavs have been and will continue to replace Sexton by committee. His spot in the starting lineup has been mostly taken by Isaac Okoro, who has started every game since Sexton first began missing time. Okoro brings value on defense that Sexton does not, but he is lightyears behind Sexton as an offensive player.

Darius Garland will need to continue stepping up to take on more of a shot-making burden in Sexton’s absence, an opportunity to grow that should be good for the young guard. He can’t do it alone, though, and if Okoro continues to struggle offensively he may lose his spot to a more offensively-oriented player like Cedi Osman, who is having a hot-shooting season off the bench.

Question: What does this mean for Sexton’s free agency?

First-round picks have the opportunity to sign an extension on their original four-year deal prior to that fourth season; in other words, they can extend the deal one year before hitting free agency. While many players in the 2018 Draft Class did agree to terms, Collin Sexton was not one of them.

That means he will hit restricted free agency next summer having not played basketball in eight months. The Cavs were unwilling to offer a max or near-max deal prior to the season, and it’s highly unlikely they will up their offer with Sexton sidelined. What should Sexton and his camp expect from this summer?

Answer: Sexton will be in less demand, but he should still have suitors

This season could have been an opportunity for Sexton to prove himself more than an empty-calories scorer, but that dream is now gone. Instead, Sexton will need to decide whether to sign a short-term contract to prove himself and get back on the market, or to ink a longer-term deal to lock in money in case of further injuries or degradation of his game.

No one is going to back up the Brinks truck for Sexton, but there will be suitors. Teams don’t have an endless supply of offensive creators, and Sexton profiles as an excellent Sixth Man option or as a scoring-focused starter at point guard for a team that gets its primary playmaking from another position.

The Cavs will be in a better position to bring him back if they wish to do so, as his value will likely be even lower than it was last fall when they were in extension discussions. They also can look to execute a sign-and-trade with another team in order to bring back an asset or a trade exception to use in replacing Sexton with another player who can bring some offensive juice.

Collin Sexton has been one of the key faces of Cavs basketball for the past few seasons, and it’s possible he has played his last game in a Cleveland uniform — a jarring reality that came upon the team and its fanbase suddenly. Hopefully, he can return healthy from this injury, whether on the Cavs or somewhere else.