The Cleveland Cavaliers got off to a strong start this season, overcoming a tough road-heavy opening schedule and making a number of statement wins. This was a team that was supposed to once again be among the dregs of the league, but instead, the Cavs notched wins over the Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers and New York Knicks — all on the road.
Jarrett Allen signed a new contract this offseason and came into the year ready to prove himself worthy, dunking everything in sight. Evan Mobley has been a revelation even as a rookie, protecting the rim like a five-year veteran and flying everywhere else, while flashing plus passing skills and a smooth midrange jumper. Lauri Markkanen hasn’t shot the ball well, but his spacing in the starting lineup helped to make the Allen-Mobley pairing viable offensively.
The Cavs have lost three straight games with an injury-depleted rotation. A really tough schedule ahead means those losses will continue to come.
Unfortunately, those three players logged a combined 29 minutes this week, as Markkanen and Allen are both out due to illness (Lauri COVID, Allen non-COVID) and Mobley was injured late in the loss to the Boston Celtics. That loss sparked an 0-3 week with losses to the Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors, dropping their record to 9-8 after a 9-5 start.
Mobley will be out as long as a month, but hopefully Allen and Markkanen will return soon. They will need to, as the schedule continues to be difficult. Six of their last of their last seven opponents were playoff teams last season (and probable playoff teams for this year). In fact, the Cavs have played teams that made last season’s playoffs in 13 of their 17 games.
It doesn’t get any better from here, starting with a Monday night rematch with the Brooklyn Nets. Here are two reasons why the Cavs and their fans should expect the losses to pile up over the next few weeks, and then some light at the end of the tunnel for how they right the ship.
Cavs: Tough Schedule Ahead
Monday night the Cavs will host the Brooklyn Nets, a rematch from this past Wednesday’s 10-point loss in Brooklyn. Two nights later they take on the scorching-hot Phoenix Suns, winners of 10 straight, including a nine-point loss in Phoenix.
Those two games are part of a stretch where nine of eleven games are against teams currently in the top four of either conference. They will hit every team on that list, all eight teams currently slotted to have homecourt advantage when the playoffs begin. Over the course of the season those standings will likely change, but enough games have been played to establish each of these teams as difficult opponents at the very least.
Of the two games not a part of murderer’s row only one is a true respite, a home game against the 4-11 Orlando Magic. The other is a December game in Milwaukee, the defending champions. Now that Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are back from extended absences that depressed their record, the Bucks could easily be back in the top-4 by the time they face each other.
The Eastern Conference is tougher this season than it has been in a long time, with only two real gimmes in the standings. Thankfully the Cavs can expect to play the Detroit Pistons three more times this season, but their next matchup won’t come until late January. There are no gimmes, and the Cavs will likely be the underdog in all but the Orlando game; a 2-9 or 1-10 record isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
The Cavs have to face one of the toughest stretches any team will have to face all season, and they will do so short-handed.
Cavs: Roster is wracked with absences
The Cleveland Cavaliers have missed 46 player games due to injury thus far this season, per Spotrac. That includes 22 games missed by starters thus far. Their frontcourt was so depleted these past two games that the Cavs had to pull 15th-man Ed Davis out of mothballs and start him twice.
Against the Warriors, the Cavs hung tough for 3+ quarters with a skeleton crew. They were missing their starters at shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center, as well as their primary backup wing (Cedi Osman) and backup 4 (Lamar Stevens). 6’4″ Denzel Valentine played most of his minutes as the nominal power forward. At no time was there any real rim protection on the court; the team logged just three blocks the entire game, one of those by Tacko Fall in garbage time.
Collin Sexton is out indefinitely with a meniscus injury, and Evan Mobley will miss up to a month with an elbow injury. Lauri Markkanen is expected back as early as Monday from health and safety protocols, but he will likely require a ramp-up to regain his conditioning. There is no timetable for Jarrett Allen, out with a non-COVID illness, but hopefully he will be back any game now.
Four Cavs starters logged at least 38 minutes against the Warriors, and fatigue on a back-to-back likely contributed to the way they fell apart in the 4th quarter. The players left for head coach J.B. Bickerstaff to play are either worn out or being pressed into roles they are not capable of filling.
There are four days until he Cavs play again, and hopefully that long weekend will refresh the healthy players and give time for some of the injured ones to return. No team can withstand this many injuries, and it stinks that the Cavs have had to face the toughest part of their schedule without the talent needed to win.
Cavs: Hope for the season
After the doom and gloom of the last two slides, it is time for some hope. Partially that hope is rooted in the return of their best players. Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen could be back as early as their next game on Monday, and Evan Mobley’s elbow injury could have been a lot worse. He is engaged and present on the bench with the team and will come back while the season is still relatively young.
Secondly, the schedule does lighten up after this walk through the valley of the shadow of death. Starting on Friday, December 10th the Cavs will play nine of twelve against teams who currently have a losing record, including games against the dregs of the West in the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans. Even if they take a tumble down the standings, that run through January 2nd could right the ship, especially with their starting frontcourt all back.
It should also be recognized that the Cavs have not rolled over at all this season, with the possible exception of the game in Phoenix. They were up 13 to start the 4th quarter against the Warriors, and they were as close as eight late in the 4th against the Nets. They have short-handed wins over a number of teams, most recently their comeback over the Boston Celtics without Sexton, Markkanen or Love. This is a scrappy, defensive team that could absolutely play spoiler to some of these teams above them in the standings.
The East is going to be brutal all season, and this stretch of tough games paired with their injury issues could set them back far enough that they can’t make the play-in this year. That’s ok if it does happen, as this core adding a wing in the draft could be a silver lining. What the first month has shown, however, is that this team has the foundation needed to make a leap in the standings, whether or not it truly comes this season or waits for next year.