The Cleveland Cavaliers have faced a lot of adversity in this young season. Eight of their first eleven games have been on the road, as have eight of those eleven games been against playoff teams from a season ago. Of the league’s eight-worst records, the Cavs have played exactly 0 of them.
On top of the tough schedule, the Cavs have been beset by injuries and absences across the roster. Isaac Okoro has now missed seven games with a hamstring injury, and Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen have missed a combined seven games due to health and safety protocols. Darius Garland and Dylan Windler have both been out a few games as well.
It’s something of a miracle that the Cavs have overachieved and gone 7-4 thus far given the difficulties placed in their way. All together, Spotrac estimates the Cavs have lost around $2.99 million in player games this year. And that is only going to get worse.
After facing numerous hurdles early in the season, an injury to Collin Sexton will only make things more difficult for the Cavs moving forward
Collin Sexton, this team’s leading scorer and starting 2-guard, will miss an extended period of time with a meniscus injury. His recovery period will likely depend on whether he gets a meniscus “trim” or a “repair”, with the former bearing a shorter recovery time but a higher probability to subsequent issues down the road.
For now the Cavs have to prepare for life without Sexton. While he was struggling with his role as the Cavs shift their organizational focus towards Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, the bottom line is still that Sexton was an important part of what Cleveland was doing. They can’t count on Ricky Rubio to turn into Steph Curry every night; they need Sexton’s scoring and energy, and just as importantly this thinning roster needs those minutes filled.
Who is a candidate to replace Sexton in the starting lineup? Let’s walk through a few options before unpacking our prediction to replace him moving forward.
Cavs: Starting lineup options after Collin Sexton injury
Cedi Osman
Last season was a tough one for Cedi Osman, but he has bounced back in a major way this year as a bench gunner for the Cavs. He is shooting 45.3 percent from 3-point range on a healthy 9.7 attempts per 36 minutes. After Sexton left Sunday’s victory over the New York Knicks, Osman closed the game at the 3. The problem with starting Osman might be on defense, but then again it’s not like Sexton was providing much on that end.
Isaac Okoro
The most talented option available would be Isaac Okoro when he returns from this hamstring injury. Okoro started all 67 games he played in last season, albeit at small forward with Sexton starting at the 2. Okoro at 6’5″ is more naturally a guard, and certainly more naturally able to defend opposing guards. Putting him into the starting lineup would give the Cavs a different look at the point of attack.
The difficulty in starting Okoro is that his 3-point shot is not just inconsistent, it looks downright broken. He hit just one of his five 3-pointers on the season in four games, which is both an abysmal shooting percentage but more so an unacceptable volume for a wing player. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has tried to stay cognizant of spacing issues around the Evan Mobley – Jarrett Allen frontcourt, which makes Okoro an unlikely candidate barring some other lineup change.
Dylan Windler
Finally, among our wing options we come to Dylan Windler, who has the size and rebounding to help the Cavs out defensively while boasting the shot to keep a 3-point threat on the court in this slot. In a sense, he brings the best of both worlds, although that assumes Windler himself would stay healthy under an increased minutes load. He is averaging just 9.9 minutes per game on the season, but did play 17 against the Knicks and went 3-of-4 from long-range. Bickerstaff likely keeps him on the bench to manage his minutes, but Windler would be an exciting option to start at either the 2 or the 3.
Cavs: Starting lineup prediction after Collin Sexton injury
In the end, although the Cavs have some intriguing wing options available to take Sexton’s place, the prediction here is that J.B. Bickerstaff tabs Ricky Rubio to rise into the starting lineup. That would place Rubio and Darius Garland in the backcourt, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt, and Dean Wade probably staying at the 3 until Lauri Markkanen returns.
There are two main reasons to predict Rubio to start in place of Sexton. First is the reality that when Sexton went down on Sunday night it was Rubio who started the second half. Rather than stick to his normal rotation of Garland and Rubio at the 1 he mixed things up to maximize Rubio’s minutes, subbing Garland out early to bring him back in with a reserve-heavy lineup later in the 3rd quarter.
The second reason is that Bickerstaff has proven this season that he only wants to play a tight rotation. In most games he has played just eight guys in the regular rotation, and the second half Sunday was no different, with just Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler and Lamar Stevens coming in off the bench. It stands to reason that he will want to start Rubio in order to get him to starter-level minutes.
It’s possible that Bickerstaff dusts off Kevin Pangos to alleviate some of that burden from Rubio, but more likely Rubio will play a few games in the mid-30s in minutes before the returns of Isaac Okoro and Lauri Markkanen ease him back down to 30 or so per game. Rubio has been excellent thus far this season and it makes sense that Bickerstaff will want to lean on him in the absence of Sexton.
No one on this roster can replace Sexton’s scoring and bull-headed rushes to the rim. His energy helped to spark this team. Yet removing his 13.6 field goal attempts per game will allow other players, namely Darius Garland, to step up and show what they can do in increased roles. Rubio in particular will likely get the start, and yet another lineup for the Cavs will try to continue the momentum in the face of adversity. Get better soon, Young Bull.