The Cleveland Cavaliers have their starting lineup set in place. Evan Mobley will start at the 4 despite being a rookie, alongside Jarrett Allen and Isaac Okoro in the frontcourt. The Cavs will have Darius Garland run the point and Collin Sexton abuse defenses from the 2-guard position.
That group has an average age of around 21 years old, and has a couple of glaring weaknesses, specifically in terms of floor spacing. Many teams close with a different group than they start with. Could the Cavs be one of those teams?
The Cleveland Cavaliers need to determine the best mix of players to end games. Which Cavs are candidates to be in the closing lineup?
The roster goes 15 players deep, and perhaps if you squint the right way any could possibly find a case to close a game this season. Obviously most will end a game when you factor in blowouts, but we are talking about the Cavs’ best lineups to send out in close games. Not everyone is a candidate for those lineups.
Let’s go from least likely to most likely, a general survey of the roster and the different options the Cavs can come up with. For this exercise we are assuming every player is healthy; obviously the 15th man closes if enough guys ahead of him are injured. Sorry Tacko, but we start with you.
Cavs: Ranking the candidates to be in the closing lineup – Unlikely Candidates
No-shot: Kevin Pangos, Denzel Valentine, Tacko Fall/Ed Davis
Tacko Fall is massive, and he will have a role on this team unless the newly signed Ed Davis is retained instead. That being said he has very little chance of closing games. If the Cavs want a true center out there, they will play Jarrett Allen. If Davis does make the roster, the story will be basically the same, as he will be just a glorified veteran mentor.
Kevin Pangos finds himself behind two point guards much more likely to close. Denzel Valentine would have to win the “backup wing job” and then find himself in a matchup where his skillset is more valuable that Isaac Okoro’s. That combination is overwhelmingly unlikely to come to pass.
Long shot: Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, Kevin Love
Keivn Love being a long shot to close may seem crazy, but the Cavs have already replaced his role on the roster by adding Lauri Markkanen. If the Cavs want to close with a stretch-big they will put Markkanen, not Love, on the court. Dean Wade similarly is in a position crunch, and despite his solid play in replacement duty last season is unlikely to ever be chosen over the combination of Evan Mobley, Lauri Markkanen and Lamar Stevens.
Cedi Osman has closed games in the past for the Cavs, and it’s not crazy to see the path to him being the offensive wing option in Okoro’s stead. This is also a vote of confidence in Dylan Windler being above Osman in the pecking order, relegating Osman to a spot rotation role instead of a shot at closing.
Cavs: Ranking the candidates to be in the closing lineup – Strong candidates
In-the-mix: Ricky Rubio, Dylan Windler, Lamar Stevens, Isaac Okoro, Lauri Markkanen, Jarrett Allen
We will get to the locks in just a moment, but there are two basic decisions for J.B. Bickerstaff and his staff to make when assembling the closing lineup. First, is the team going big or small? Second, do they want their defense to come from the wing or the big men, or both?
Jarrett Allen can and will close against bigger opponents; the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokic types in the league. Against smaller lineups, however, he could be pulled in favor of Lauri Markkanen, who spaces the court and can better keep up with more nimble players. If the Cavs want to go even smaller, then they put in Lamar Stevens at the 4.
Sliding up to the wing, the Cavs have a few different configurations they can try. They will often simply keep their starting group on the court with Isaac Okoro at the 3. Ricky Rubio could close with Garland and Sexton as something of a three-guard group, with Rubio taking on small forwards. For more of an offensive punch, Dylan Windler can play the 3 and provide the spacing that Okoro and Rubio do not.
Locks: Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Evan Mobley
Darius Garland is the lockiest of locks; there isn’t a scenario the Cavs will face where he isn’t on the court, unless it’s a pure defense-only possession and they put together a lineup of Rubio, Okoro, Stevens, Mobley and Allen. Garland will be out there to close games.
Sexton is only a whisper away from being a stone-cold lock, so it’s close enough. His scoring punch is significant and his view of his own role on the team demands a spot in the closing lineup. Finally, Evan Mobley has already shown enough flashes to secure his place closing games, as he can do things defensively no one else on the roster can.
The most likely closing unit is the starting group, but there are a lot of variations off of that theme that Bickerstaff can try out before finding the best combination. My prediction? By the end of the season the closing group will often be Garland, Sexton and Windler on the wing, and Mobley and Markkanen in the frontcourt. We’ll see as early as next week what lineup gets to try things out first.